Strait of Hormuz Tracker
Gulf tensions, shipping and energy markets — event by event.
30-day review of this series 6/18 – 7/18
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The June MOU collapsed from a fragile ceasefire into sustained open conflict within ten days. The agreement, signed on June 17, began fracturing by late June as Iran imposed unilateral permit systems, and by July 10 President Trump declared it “over,” triggering a rapid return to daily U.S. airstrikes and Iranian retaliatory barrages against Gulf states.
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Strait of Hormuz transit collapsed from a partial recovery to a near-standstill. Traffic had recovered to 40–70 vessels per day in late June as the MOU took effect, but by mid-July the escalation reduced crossings to just 8–13 ships daily — roughly one-tenth of pre-war averages — as shipping companies withdrew capacity and India banned seafarers from Hormuz voyages.
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The geographic and target scope of the conflict broadened dramatically. The U.S. expanded its strikes from purely military assets to infrastructure targets including bridges, railway stations, and a port control tower, while Iran retaliated by hitting Qatar (a key mediator) for the first time since April and expanding attacks to Syria, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman.
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A dual-chokepoint threat emerged as Iran activated the Houthi vector. Tehran instructed Yemen’s Houthi movement to prepare to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the U.S. struck Iranian power infrastructure, raising the prospect of a simultaneous blockade of both Hormuz and the Red Sea — a tail risk that would leave only vulnerable pipelines as alternative export routes.
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Emergency buffer stocks were nearly exhausted, stripping the market of its cushion. The IEA warned that the 400 million barrel coordinated release was largely spent, global ex-China inventories hit historic lows, and analysts concluded that “close to nothing” remained in excess inventories — meaning any prolonged disruption would face a structurally weaker safety net than at any prior point in the conflict.
July 2026
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〈Ninth Night of Strikes; Third US Fatality; Oil Breaches $90; US Gasoline Back to $4/Gallon〉
The U.S.-Iran conflict escalated further overnight with a ninth consecutive night of U.S. strikes and a third American military fatality; Iran retaliated by attacking Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, and its IRGC claimed two oil tankers exploded in the Strait of Hormuz; Brent crude surged above $90/bbl for the first time since June 11, while U.S. gasoline returned to over $4/gallon; limited diplomatic signals from both sides remain overshadowed by sustained military escalation.
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〈Eighth Night of Strikes; Iran Suspends Interim Deal; Two US Soldiers Killed; Strait Declared Fully Closed; Oil Surges Over 10%〉
The U.S.-Iran conflict escalated sharply over the weekend with an eighth consecutive night of U.S. strikes hitting infrastructure targets for the first time; two U.S. service members were killed in Jordan, bringing total U.S. deaths to 16; Iran formally suspended its commitments under the June interim deal, with Supreme Leader Khamenei declaring Trump's signature "worthless and invalid"; Iran's IRGC claimed two oil tankers exploded in a mined route south of the Strait and declared the waterway fully closed to oil and gas shipments; Iranian retaliatory strikes hit a Kuwaiti desalination plant and oil facility, and struck Saudi Arabia for the first time in three months; Strait transit fell to a three-week low; Brent crude surged over 10% this week, briefly breaching $87/bbl; the IEA warned of potential gasoline and diesel supply shortages as strategic and commercial buffers are nearly exhausted; Iran instructed Houthi proxies to prepare to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
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〈U.S. and Iran Trade Seventh Night of Strikes; Iran Closes Strait Completely; Oil Surges to $88; Dual-Chokepoint Risk Looms〉
The U.S.-Iran conflict entered its seventh day with the U.S. targeting infrastructure for a seventh consecutive night, Iran retaliated heavily against Kuwait (hitting a desalination plant) and declared the Strait of Hormuz fully closed after two tankers exploded in a mined route; Strait transit collapsed to 8 ships on July 16, Brent crude surged to $88/bbl, and Iran instructed Houthi proxies to prepare to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising the prospect of a dual-chokepoint crisis.
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〈U.S. Widens Strikes to Bridges; Iran Hits Qatar; Strait Nears Standstill; Brent Holds Above $85〉
The U.S.-Iran conflict entered its sixth day with the U.S. striking Iranian bridges and a port tower for the first time, widening the target set to infrastructure; Iran retaliated by attacking Qatar — a key mediator — and other U.S. allies, and signaled it may use Houthi allies to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if its power grid is hit; Strait traffic collapsed to 8–13 ships on July 16, Brent crude rose above $85/bbl, and IEA chief Fatih Birol warned the world should be worried if the Strait does not reopen in weeks.
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〈U.S. Strikes / Blockade Escalate; Iran Vows 'Existential War'; Strait Near Halt; Brent Breaches $85〉
The U.S.-Iran conflict has entered a new, more dangerous phase: the U.S. launched a fifth day of strikes — including the first attack on a tanker and expanding the target set north toward Tehran — while Iran retaliated on Kuwait and Jordan and vowed to halt all Middle East energy exports; the interim deal is dead, Strait traffic is near a standstill, and Brent crude held above $85/bbl, but with emergency buffer stocks nearly exhausted, the market faces a structurally weaker cushion than at any point in the war.
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〈U.S. Reinstates Blockade and Strikes Iran; Trump Reverses 20% Fee; Oil at One-Month High, Shipping Near Halt〉
The U.S. reinstated its naval blockade on Iranian ports and launched a third consecutive night of strikes on Iran, Iran retaliated against U.S. bases in multiple Gulf states, President Trump reversed his 20% fee proposal in favor of Gulf state investment deals, Strait traffic fell to a trickle (10 ships Monday), and Brent crude hit a one-month high above $87/bbl before settling near $86 — the conflict has returned to full-scale disruption with no diplomatic off-ramp visible.
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〈U.S. Declares Itself Hormuz Guardian, Imposes 20% Fee; Iran Strikes UAE Tankers, Closure Contested; Transit Collapses, Brent Breaches $85〉
The U.S.-Iran conflict escalated sharply over the weekend and into Monday/Tuesday, with President Trump declaring the U.S. the “Guardian of the Strait of Hormuz” and reimposing a naval blockade on Iran with a 20% fee on all cargo; Iran retaliated by striking two UAE tankers with cruise missiles, killing one sailor, and attacked U.S. bases in multiple Gulf states; Strait transit collapsed to 14 ships on Sunday (a one-month low), and Brent crude surged over 9% on Monday and breached $85 on Tuesday — the highest since mid-June — as the fragile ceasefire agreement effectively dissolved.
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U.S.-Iran Trade Fifth Round of Strikes; Strait Transit Hits Five-Week Low of 6 Ships; Oil Surges ~4% to $79
The U.S.-Iran standoff escalated further over the weekend with a fifth week of U.S. strikes and expanded Iranian retaliatory attacks on Qatar and the UAE, while Iran declared the Strait closed and the U.S. insisted it remained open; transit fell to 6 vessels on Sunday (five-week low), and Brent crude surged ~4% to $79/bbl, though prices remain far below wartime highs.
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Iran Declares Strait Closure, Third U.S. Strike Wave, Omani Mediation Fails to Secure Immediate Agreement, Oil Rises
The U.S.-Iran standoff escalated sharply on July 11-12: Iran fired warning shots on a container ship, declared the Strait of Hormuz closed indefinitely, and launched missile and drone salvoes at five Gulf states; the U.S. responded with a third wave of strikes within a week, hitting ~140 targets; Omani-led talks to reopen the waterway failed to secure an immediate Iranian agreement; Strait traffic dropped to 11 vessels in 24 hours, and Brent crude closed the week near $76/bbl, about 5% above pre-war levels.
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U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Fractured; Talks Continue Amid Deadline, Strait Traffic Halved, Oil Rises ~5% Weekly
The U.S.-Iran ceasefire framework remains in a collapsed state after a week of tit-for-tat strikes, but diplomatic efforts are continuing under a tight U.S. deadline for Tehran to publicly renounce attacks on shipping; Strait of Hormuz traffic has halved, shipowners are withdrawing capacity, and Brent crude posted its biggest weekly rise in eight weeks (~5.5%) to settle near $76, though prices remain well below wartime highs.
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U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Collapses into Open Conflict; Strait Traffic Near Zero, Oil Surges but Holds Below $80
The U.S.-Iran ceasefire framework has completely collapsed after three consecutive nights of major military exchanges — the U.S. struck ~170 targets in Iran over two days, Iran retaliated against U.S. bases in four Gulf states, Trump declared the MOU "over," Strait of Hormuz traffic nearly halted, and Qatar paused LNG production restart; Brent crude surged to near $77-79/bbl this week but has not sustained above $80 as markets assess limited energy infrastructure damage and potential for renewed talks.
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US-Iran Ceasefire Collapses; Massive Military Exchange, Strait Traffic Near Halt, Oil Surges 7%+
The U.S.-Iran ceasefire framework has completely collapsed after two nights of massive military exchanges — the U.S. struck ~170 Iranian targets, Iran retaliated against U.S. bases in three Gulf states, Trump declared the MOU "over" and revoked Iran's oil waiver, the Strait threat level was raised to "severe," and traffic effectively stopped, sending Brent crude surging over 7% to near $80/bbl and triggering a broad risk-off selloff in equities.
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Strait of Hormuz Ceasefire Collapses; US and Iran Exchange Major Strikes, Oil Surges 6%
The U.S.-Iran ceasefire collapsed on July 7-8 after Iran attacked at least three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting massive U.S. airstrikes on over 80 Iranian targets and Iran retaliating against U.S. bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, while the U.S. revoked Iran's oil sales waiver; Brent crude surged over 6% to $78.87/bbl, WTI jumped over 6% to $74.96/bbl, and Asian/European equities slumped as the risk premium violently re-entered the market.
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Iran Missile Attacks Resume in Strait of Hormuz, Testing Fragile Ceasefire
Iran fired at least two missiles at commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night, hitting a Qatari LNG tanker and a Saudi crude oil tanker, marking the most significant violation of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire since late June and threatening to unravel the MOU signed less than three weeks ago; Brent crude rose 1.5% to $73.09/bbl on renewed risk premium.
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Hormuz Transit Recovers Amid Fragile Ceasefire, Red Sea Attack Resumes, Oil Falls to Pre-War Levels
Oil prices fell below $72/bbl as Hormuz Strait shipping continued recovering — Saudi exports surged to near pre-war levels — but a cargo vessel attack in the Red Sea, Houthi threats against Saudi Arabia, an IRGC-enforced turnback of 8 ships, and a 60-day ceasefire clock that is ticking without a final deal leave the normalization narrative vulnerable to a reversal.
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Iranian Control Assertion Tightens on Omani Route, Oil Flows Resume but With Friction, Talks Progress, Brent Falls
Iran's enforcement of its control posture is creating operational friction on the Omani route — at least eight ships turned back over the weekend, with Kpler showing only 19 crossings on Saturday — even as U.S. officials say the southern lane remains open with about 50 vessels passing recently, and positive progress in U.S.-Iran indirect talks has cooled supply concerns, sending oil back into a downward channel with U.S. SPR falling to 325.7 million barrels.
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Iranian Control Assertion Complicates Hormuz Reopening, OPEC Surge Flows In, Oil Near $72
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains complicated by Iran's assertive control posture — at least eight ships turned back near Oman's coast — even as UK/France deploy military assets to secure a southern Omani route, OPEC output surged 2.34 million bpd in June on resumed flows, and Citi sees Brent falling to $60-65 by year-end, reflecting a market that is pricing normalization but not the unresolved governance dispute.
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Strait of Hormuz: Iran Warns on Routes, Talks Paused for Funeral, Brent Falls to $72
Oil prices edged up slightly on Friday but remain near pre-war lows near $72/bbl as the Strait of Hormuz reopening continues, with Iran's military issuing a new forceful warning on route compliance and the U.S.-Iran negotiation process paused for Khamenei's funeral, while Saudi crude exports have surged to 34 million barrels since the MOU, though structural risks from mines, unresolved control disputes, and a hardening U.S.-Saudi rift persist.
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Strait of Hormuz: Talks Progress Noted in Doha, Iran Warns on Routes, Oil Falls Below $71
U.S. and Iranian indirect talks in Doha concluded with Qatar reporting "positive progress" while Iran's military issued a new warning that all vessels must follow Iranian-designated routes or face a "forceful response"; oil prices fell for a third consecutive day with Brent below $71/bbl and WTI near $68, as the market prices a supply-normalization narrative that has now overwhelmed residual risk premiums, even as transit data shows recovery is fragile and incomplete.
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Strait of Hormuz: Talks Resume in Doha Amid Fee Dispute, Ship Runs Aground, Oil Steady Near $73
U.S. and Iranian officials resumed indirect technical talks in Doha on July 1, but disagreements over transit fees and Strait governance persist, with Iran remaining determined to enforce its control and a foreign container ship grounding underscoring Tehran's claims, while shipping traffic continues to recover slowly, insurance normalization remains years away, and Brent crude steadied near $73/bbl after a record quarterly drop.
June 2026
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Strait of Hormuz: Talks Confusion as Iran Denies Doha Meeting, Traffic Rebounds to 40 Ships, Oil Steady Near $73
The stand-down holds but diplomatic confusion dominates — U.S. envoys head to Qatar for talks Iran denies are scheduled, while traffic rebounded to 40 ships on Monday and 14 million barrels of Iraqi oil exited the Gulf, as Iran and Oman hold their first joint committee on Strait management, signaling both operational recovery and an unresolved control dispute that keeps oil range-bound near $73 Brent.
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Strait of Hormuz: U.S.-Iran Agree to Stand Down After Four Days of Strikes, Oil Edges Up as Talks Resume in Doha
The four-day U.S.-Iran military exchange appears to pause: both sides agreed to cease attacks and resume talks in Qatar on Tuesday, with a senior U.S. official stating vessels can move freely, but Kpler data shows daily transit numbers fell from 73 (June 24) to as low as 10 (June 27), Hapag-Lloyd warned a "new normal" of heightened risk and uncertain regulation has set in, and Iran's foreign minister reiterated Tehran's sole right to manage the Strait, leaving the core control dispute unresolved as Brent edged up 0.5–1% to ~$73/bbl.
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Strait of Hormuz: U.S.-Iran Exchange Broadens to Third Day, Bahrain and Kuwait Struck, JMIC Threat Level Raised, Oil Falls Despite Escalation
The U.S.-Iran military exchange enters a third consecutive day with a significant geographic expansion — Iran struck Bahrain and Kuwait for the first time in the current cycle, the U.S. conducted a second round of strikes hitting 10 Iranian military targets, the Joint Maritime Information Center raised the threat level to "substantial," the IMO halted evacuations without guarantees, and Brent crude fell below pre-war levels as supply-normalization flows continued to dominate over renewed risk pricing.
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Strait of Hormuz: U.S.-Iran Exchange Strikes, Ceasefire Fractures, JMIC Threat Level Raised, Oil Falls Below Pre-War Close
The fragile reopening of the Strait of Hormuz suffered a severe blow: the U.S. and Iran exchanged direct military strikes for the first time since the ceasefire extension, the Joint Maritime Information Center raised the threat level from "medium" to "elevated," the IMO suspended its evacuation plan, and Brent crude fell below $72/bbl — a level not seen since before the war — as supply-reopening fundamentals overwhelmed the renewed geopolitical risk premium.
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Strait of Hormuz: Iran Strikes Cargo Vessel, UN Pauses Evacuation, Traffic Continues as Oil Rebounds
The fragile reopening suffered its first direct military test — Iran's Revolutionary Guard attacked a Singapore-flagged container ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, prompting the IMO to pause its evacuation plan, but two-way traffic continued and oil prices rebounded (>2% WTI) as the market assessed whether the strike was a one-off warning or the start of a renewed campaign.
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Strait of Hormuz: Brent Breaches Pre-War Close as Traffic Surges, but Iran's New Route Ultimatum Re-Escalates Control Dispute
The oil market has overshot normalization — Brent fell below its pre-war close of $72.48 to $72.24, traffic through the Strait doubled in 24 hours, and the US Energy Secretary claimed flows are near pre-war levels — but Iran's Revolutionary Guard issued a sharp ultimatum declaring only Iranian-designated routes are authorized, creating a new confrontation with the IMO/Oman route hours after it was first used, while an Israeli airstrike in Lebanon adds political fragility.
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Strait of Hormuz: Brent Breaches Pre-War Floor as Traffic Picks Up Under Managed Evacuation, But Closed Central Channel and US-Iran Toll Friction Persist
Operational de-escalation continues but administrative friction escalates: Brent crude briefly fell below $76 — lower than the pre-war February 27 close — as traffic surged to 172 vessels since the deal, the IMO launched a controlled-evacuation plan for ~11,000 stranded seafarers, and tanker rates nearly doubled. However, the central TSS channel remains mined and closed, Iran and Oman confirmed they are discussing future transit fees, and the US reiterated any tolls would violate international law, creating a growing legal and diplomatic confrontation over the post-60-day regime.
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Strait of Hormuz: Traffic Rises, Risk Level Downgraded, but Dual-Authority Tensions Persist
Situation de-escalates further as Strait of Hormuz traffic rises to 30+ vessels in 24h — highest since the conflict began — and the UKMTO downgrades the threat level from "severe" to "moderate," but conflicting US/Iranian navigation instructions and Iran's toll ambitions keep shipowners in a legal double-bind, while US SPR stocks hit a 43-year low and Brent stabilizes near $78.
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Strait of Hormuz: Talks Progress Amid Iran Closure Threat and Trump Ultimatum; Oil Bounces from Lows
Oil prices initially fell on peace talks progress before rebounding after President Trump threatened to 'take over' Iran and Tehran declared the interim deal void, while transit through the Strait of Hormuz remained minimal with only 5 vessels crossing Monday.
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Strait of Hormuz Re-Closure Threat Escalates as US Denies, Traffic Surges; Israel-Lebanon Fighting Continues
Iran's military announced it closed the Strait of Hormuz on June 20, citing Israeli strikes on Lebanon, but US Central Command denied any closure and reported that 55 merchant ships carrying more than 17 million barrels of oil transited that day — the highest daily volume since before the war — creating a dangerous two-track escalation between declared closure and continued traffic.
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Strait of Hormuz Reopening Faces Immediate Stress as Iran Imposes Permit System, Israel-Lebanon Fighting Continues
Fragile de-escalation under severe strain — the Strait of Hormuz is physically open with 25 ships transiting Thursday, but Iran has imposed mandatory permits and insurance, the day after U.S.-Iran talks were canceled due to Israel-Hezbollah fighting in Lebanon, threatening to unravel the entire MOU framework and re-escalate the conflict.
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Strait of Hormuz Reopens as Ships Move, but Mine Threats, Israeli Defiance, and Fee Disputes Cast Shadows
The US-Iran MOU is now in effect, with tankers moving and oil prices falling near pre-war levels, but the main route remains blocked by ~80 mines, Israel refuses to end its Lebanon war, and Iran's post-60-day fee plan threatens a new conflict, keeping the situation in fragile de-escalation.
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Strait of Hormuz Deal Takes Effect, Traffic Slowly Edges Up as Oil Breaches $80 Floor
Fragile de-escalation continues as the US-Iran MOU takes effect remotely, transit edges up to ~10 vessels Thursday morning, and the threat level is downgraded from "severe" to "substantial," but oil prices breach $80 (Brent ~$77.9) on supply-reopening expectations while shipping and insurance hurdles remain unresolved.
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Strait of Hormuz Implementation Stalls as Shipping Skepticism, Mine Threats, and Iran's Fee Demands Persist
Oil prices fell further Tuesday (Brent below $79, WTI below $77) as the U.S.-Iran deal faces implementation hurdles: shipping companies remain extremely cautious, Iran insists on retaining control and charging fees, U.S. intelligence assesses Iran can close the Strait again, and the full text remains secret.
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Strait of Hormuz Deal Signed, Implementation Faces Mine Clearance, Israeli Opposition
The U.S.-Iran interim peace deal is signed, but execution risks mount as the U.S. and allies differ on reopening timing, shippers remain cautious over mines and insurance, and Israel defies the Lebanon ceasefire, leading oil to stabilize rather than fall further.
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US-Iran Peace Deal Announced, Strait of Hormuz Reopening in Sight
The US and Iran announced an interim peace agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a 4–5% drop in oil prices (Brent ~$83.50) and a sharp rally in Asian equities. However, the deal remains unsigned until June 19, details are scarce, an Israeli airstrike on Beirut has strained the fragile accord, and experts warn that full normalization of oil flows will take months.
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Strait of Hormuz Disruption Nears Deal as US-Iran Talks Advance
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut for over 100 days, but US-Iran negotiations appear close to a deal to reopen the waterway, despite recent military exchanges and Iranian demands for tolls. Brent crude sits at $87.55, the lowest since before the conflict, as the market prices in a potential reopening.