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Strait of Hormuz Tracker

Gulf tensions, shipping and energy markets — event by event.

Daily Issues 82 issues RSS

30-day review of this series 8/6 – 9/5

  • Military escalation arc: The standoff swung from the post-MOU stalemate of mid-August through a brief de-escalation on Aug 25–28, then reversed sharply when US strikes on Larak Island (Aug 30) and the heaviest US–Iran exchanges since July (Sep 1–2) replaced calibrated punishment with direct state-on-state fire and contested civilian casualties, before a tentative pause settled in by Sep 3–4.

  • The Hormuz data war: The core dispute evolved from US “~9 mb/d” claims versus tracker-estimated ~4–6 mb/d to a standstill narrative — six-vessel visible days and a “mostly at standstill” NYT description — and finally to an explicit clash between Energy Secretary Wright’s wartime-record “17 million barrels in a day” and trackers showing single-digit commodity transits, a gap that kept the premium embedded in both directions.

  • Flow reconfiguration: Shipping adapted in layers: dark-fleet flows held total Hormuz volumes near 6–7 mb/d, non-Iranian Gulf loadings hit conflict highs, and by September Iraqi exports on Iranian-cleared tankers emerged as the sanctioned channel, jumping from ~1.35 to ~2.34 mb/d — while Saudi exports fell to a record low as both Hormuz and Red Sea routes closed.

  • Product and inflation squeeze: The crude shock migrated downstream: US diesel hit a record $5.85 a gallon, diesel cracks exceeded $100, Gulf and Russian refining damage tightened products globally, and the oil-inflation channel revived market bets on a September Fed hike, transmitting the war into rates and discount rates rather than only energy earnings.

  • Diplomatic whipsaw: The June MOU expired with no successor, the Iran–Oman corridor proposal of Aug 25 briefly broke Brent below $90, and Pakistan/Qatar mediation plus Israel–Lebanon releases kept side-channels alive — but Vance’s no-talks-unless precondition and Iran’s wait-for-concession posture left no imminent US–Iran agreement.

September 2026

August 2026

July 2026

  • Oil Eases on First Hormuz Flow Recovery; Conflict Widens to Kuwait and Egypt; Iran Hardens Strait Stance

    The U.S.-Iran fight kept widening — Iran hit a Chinese company's building in Kuwait, Jordan shot down a second day of Iranian missiles, and Egypt confirmed a drone attack on two gas carriers at Damietta — yet oil prices fell on Friday (Brent ~$88, WTI ~$82) as Hormuz flows showed the first concrete recovery: clandestine STS shuttling resumed , CBA estimates traffic at roughly 30-35% of pre-war levels , and a Qatari LNG carrier exited the Strait for the first time since July 11 , even as Iran's deputy FM insisted "our victory" is incomplete if the Strait returns to its previous state .

    29 sources ~39 min

  • U.S. Renews Strikes on Iran; Hormuz Transit Near Standstill; Oil Rebounds but Alternative Routes Emerge

    The U.S. launched a two-hour operation striking dozens of IRGC targets in Iran after Tehran fired ballistic missiles at U.S. forces in Jordan, shattering a brief pause and sending Brent crude up over 8% to above $90/bbl before settling at $91-92; Iran rejected the Omani joint-management proposal for the Strait, transit remains at crisis-era lows (~2 outbound tankers/day), but the U.S. Navy is escorting some tankers and cargo volumes have shown a marginal rebound, while a drone strike on a U.S.-owned LNG tanker in Egypt and Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities widen the threat geography.

    25 sources ~43 min

  • Iranian Missile Attack Shatters Ceasefire; Strait of Hormuz Control Fight Intensifies; Oil Rebounds

    Iran launched a ballistic-missile attack on US forces in Jordan, shattering a multi-day pause; the US and Saudi Arabia retaliated with airstrikes on Iran-backed targets in Iraq; Iran's Revolutionary Guard intercepted three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and rejected Oman's joint-management proposal, proposing its own plan demanding unilateral control — crude oil rebounded over 3% as supply-disruption fears reignited.

    30 sources ~45 min

  • U.S.-Iran Strike Pause Extends; Hormuz Talks Progress; Oil Plunges 9%; Houthi Red Sea Front Intensifies

    The U.S.-Iran military pause extended for a third consecutive day, with Omani-mediated talks on a provisional Strait of Hormuz framework making "significant" progress, triggering a Brent crash of over 9% to below $86/bbl; however, the dual-chokepoint crisis deepened as Houthis attacked Saudi oil facilities and tankers, while Iran intercepted vessels in Hormuz and a tanker struck a mine, and a new Caspian front opened with Iran accusing Ukraine of striking its vessel.

    32 sources ~50 min

  • U.S.-Iran Strike Pause Enters Second Day; Oil Plunges Over 9%; Hormuz Talks Show Progress, But Red Sea Front Heats Up

    The U.S. and Iran paused military strikes for a second consecutive night, with Omani-mediated talks on Strait of Hormuz transit management making "constructive" progress, triggering a collapse in oil prices (Brent -9% to below $88/bbl) and a rally in U.S. equity futures; however, the dual-chokepoint crisis deepened as Houthis attacked three Saudi oil tankers in 48 hours and struck Aramco facilities, while Iran intercepted 6 vessels in Hormuz and a tanker struck a mine.

    37 sources ~46 min

  • Strike Pause Opens Diplomatic Window; Houthi Red Sea Escalation Threatens Saudi Lifeline; Brent Holds Near $100

    The US paused airstrikes on Iran for a second consecutive night as Omani-mediated talks made "constructive" progress toward a provisional Strait of Hormuz transit deal, but the dual-chokepoint crisis deepened as Houthis attacked Saudi Aramco facilities at Yanbu and Jizan and Saudi-led coalition struck Houthi targets in Yemen for the first time since 2022, threatening Saudi Arabia's last remaining oil export route.

    22 sources ~49 min

  • Brent Surges Past $100 on Dual-Chokepoint Crisis; Saudi Arabia Strikes Houthis; Diplomacy Flirts While Fighting Rages

    Brent crude breached $100/bbl again as the dual-chokepoint supply crisis fully materialized — Saudi Arabia launched airstrikes on Houthis in Yemen after the group targeted Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and declared a maritime blockade; the U.S. completed a 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, while Iran retaliated with drone and missile attacks on U.S. bases; an Omani delegation arrived in Tehran for talks, and the U.S. and U.K. plan a London conference on the Strait of Hormuz, offering a tentative diplomatic off-ramp even as fighting intensifies.

    30 sources ~44 min

  • Brent Breaches $100 as Houthi Red Sea Strikes Create Dual-Chokepoint Crisis; 13th Night of U.S. Strikes; Iran Rejects Ceasefire; Trump Threatens “Massive Attack”

    Brent crude surged above $100/bbl for the first time since May as Houthi attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea opened a second front, creating a dual-chokepoint supply crisis alongside the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz; the U.S. launched a 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, Trump threatened a “massive attack” and said frozen Iranian assets would pay for damages, while Iran rejected a U.S. cease-fire offer and its foreign minister warned of “ensuing chaos.”

    66 sources ~49 min

  • Houthi Red Sea Attack Opens Dual-Chokepoint Crisis; Brent Surges Past $96; 12th Night of U.S. Strikes

    Houthi rebels attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, turning the Bab el-Mandeb blockade threat into a material reality and creating a dual-chokepoint supply crisis alongside the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz; Brent crude surged above $96/bbl, while the U.S. conducted a 12th consecutive night of strikes on Iran and deployed a B-1 bomber; Trump threatened to destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant for every attack on a ship in the Strait, drawing a reciprocal threat from Iran to block all regional oil exports if U.S. infrastructure strikes proceed.

    71 sources ~50 min

  • 11th Night of Strikes; Houthi Red Sea Blockade Takes Effect With Tanker U-Turns; Brent Breaches $92; Trump Threatens Nuclear Site

    The U.S. launched an 11th consecutive night of strikes on Iran as Houthi threats to blockade Saudi Red Sea ports began taking material effect — multiple oil tankers made U-turns away from Bab el-Mandeb, while Brent crude surged past $92/bbl (up $20 since July 7); Trump threatened to strike an underground nuclear site near Natanz, Iran warned of major escalation; diplomatic efforts through Pakistan continued but remained stymied.

    51 sources ~54 min

  • Tenth Night of Strikes; Houthi Blockade of Red Sea Opens Second Front; Oil Holds Near $90; Mediators Propose 10-Day Ceasefire

    The U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes for a tenth consecutive night, with Iran attacking a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi rebels announcing a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea, opening a potential second front; Brent crude held above $88–$90/bbl while mediators proposed a 10-day ceasefire to salvage the collapsed interim deal.

    41 sources ~45 min

  • Ninth Night of Strikes; Third US Fatality; Oil Breaches $90; US Gasoline Back to $4/Gallon

    The U.S.-Iran conflict escalated further overnight with a ninth consecutive night of U.S. strikes and a third American military fatality; Iran retaliated by attacking Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, and its IRGC claimed two oil tankers exploded in the Strait of Hormuz; Brent crude surged above $90/bbl for the first time since June 11, while U.S. gasoline returned to over $4/gallon; limited diplomatic signals from both sides remain overshadowed by sustained military escalation.

    36 sources ~37 min

  • Eighth Night of Strikes; Iran Suspends Interim Deal; Two US Soldiers Killed; Strait Declared Fully Closed; Oil Surges Over 10%

    The U.S.-Iran conflict escalated sharply over the weekend with an eighth consecutive night of U.S. strikes hitting infrastructure targets for the first time; two U.S. service members were killed in Jordan, bringing total U.S. deaths to 16; Iran formally suspended its commitments under the June interim deal, with Supreme Leader Khamenei declaring Trump's signature "worthless and invalid"; Iran's IRGC claimed two oil tankers exploded in a mined route south of the Strait and declared the waterway fully closed to oil and gas shipments; Iranian retaliatory strikes hit a Kuwaiti desalination plant and oil facility, and struck Saudi Arabia for the first time in three months; Strait transit fell to a three-week low; Brent crude surged over 10% this week, briefly breaching $87/bbl; the IEA warned of potential gasoline and diesel supply shortages as strategic and commercial buffers are nearly exhausted; Iran instructed Houthi proxies to prepare to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

    12 sources ~46 min

  • U.S. and Iran Trade Seventh Night of Strikes; Iran Closes Strait Completely; Oil Surges to $88; Dual-Chokepoint Risk Looms

    The U.S.-Iran conflict entered its seventh day with the U.S. targeting infrastructure for a seventh consecutive night, Iran retaliated heavily against Kuwait (hitting a desalination plant) and declared the Strait of Hormuz fully closed after two tankers exploded in a mined route; Strait transit collapsed to 8 ships on July 16, Brent crude surged to $88/bbl, and Iran instructed Houthi proxies to prepare to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising the prospect of a dual-chokepoint crisis.

    37 sources ~43 min

  • U.S. Widens Strikes to Bridges; Iran Hits Qatar; Strait Nears Standstill; Brent Holds Above $85

    The U.S.-Iran conflict entered its sixth day with the U.S. striking Iranian bridges and a port tower for the first time, widening the target set to infrastructure; Iran retaliated by attacking Qatar — a key mediator — and other U.S. allies, and signaled it may use Houthi allies to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if its power grid is hit; Strait traffic collapsed to 8–13 ships on July 16, Brent crude rose above $85/bbl, and IEA chief Fatih Birol warned the world should be worried if the Strait does not reopen in weeks.

    46 sources ~41 min

  • U.S. Strikes / Blockade Escalate; Iran Vows 'Existential War'; Strait Near Halt; Brent Breaches $85

    The U.S.-Iran conflict has entered a new, more dangerous phase: the U.S. launched a fifth day of strikes — including the first attack on a tanker and expanding the target set north toward Tehran — while Iran retaliated on Kuwait and Jordan and vowed to halt all Middle East energy exports; the interim deal is dead, Strait traffic is near a standstill, and Brent crude held above $85/bbl, but with emergency buffer stocks nearly exhausted, the market faces a structurally weaker cushion than at any point in the war.

    60 sources ~45 min

  • U.S. Reinstates Blockade and Strikes Iran; Trump Reverses 20% Fee; Oil at One-Month High, Shipping Near Halt

    The U.S. reinstated its naval blockade on Iranian ports and launched a third consecutive night of strikes on Iran, Iran retaliated against U.S. bases in multiple Gulf states, President Trump reversed his 20% fee proposal in favor of Gulf state investment deals, Strait traffic fell to a trickle (10 ships Monday), and Brent crude hit a one-month high above $87/bbl before settling near $86 — the conflict has returned to full-scale disruption with no diplomatic off-ramp visible.

    62 sources ~42 min

  • U.S. Declares Itself Hormuz Guardian, Imposes 20% Fee; Iran Strikes UAE Tankers, Closure Contested; Transit Collapses, Brent Breaches $85

    The U.S.-Iran conflict escalated sharply over the weekend and into Monday/Tuesday, with President Trump declaring the U.S. the “Guardian of the Strait of Hormuz” and reimposing a naval blockade on Iran with a 20% fee on all cargo; Iran retaliated by striking two UAE tankers with cruise missiles, killing one sailor, and attacked U.S. bases in multiple Gulf states; Strait transit collapsed to 14 ships on Sunday (a one-month low), and Brent crude surged over 9% on Monday and breached $85 on Tuesday — the highest since mid-June — as the fragile ceasefire agreement effectively dissolved.

    76 sources ~39 min

  • U.S.-Iran Trade Fifth Round of Strikes; Strait Transit Hits Five-Week Low of 6 Ships; Oil Surges ~4% to $79

    The U.S.-Iran standoff escalated further over the weekend with a fifth week of U.S. strikes and expanded Iranian retaliatory attacks on Qatar and the UAE, while Iran declared the Strait closed and the U.S. insisted it remained open; transit fell to 6 vessels on Sunday (five-week low), and Brent crude surged ~4% to $79/bbl, though prices remain far below wartime highs.

    78 sources ~41 min

  • Iran Declares Strait Closure, Third U.S. Strike Wave, Omani Mediation Fails to Secure Immediate Agreement, Oil Rises

    The U.S.-Iran standoff escalated sharply on July 11-12: Iran fired warning shots on a container ship, declared the Strait of Hormuz closed indefinitely, and launched missile and drone salvoes at five Gulf states; the U.S. responded with a third wave of strikes within a week, hitting ~140 targets; Omani-led talks to reopen the waterway failed to secure an immediate Iranian agreement; Strait traffic dropped to 11 vessels in 24 hours, and Brent crude closed the week near $76/bbl, about 5% above pre-war levels.

    37 sources ~49 min

  • U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Fractured; Talks Continue Amid Deadline, Strait Traffic Halved, Oil Rises ~5% Weekly

    The U.S.-Iran ceasefire framework remains in a collapsed state after a week of tit-for-tat strikes, but diplomatic efforts are continuing under a tight U.S. deadline for Tehran to publicly renounce attacks on shipping; Strait of Hormuz traffic has halved, shipowners are withdrawing capacity, and Brent crude posted its biggest weekly rise in eight weeks (~5.5%) to settle near $76, though prices remain well below wartime highs.

    30 sources ~36 min

  • U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Collapses into Open Conflict; Strait Traffic Near Zero, Oil Surges but Holds Below $80

    The U.S.-Iran ceasefire framework has completely collapsed after three consecutive nights of major military exchanges — the U.S. struck ~170 targets in Iran over two days, Iran retaliated against U.S. bases in four Gulf states, Trump declared the MOU "over," Strait of Hormuz traffic nearly halted, and Qatar paused LNG production restart; Brent crude surged to near $77-79/bbl this week but has not sustained above $80 as markets assess limited energy infrastructure damage and potential for renewed talks.

    32 sources ~41 min

  • US-Iran Ceasefire Collapses; Massive Military Exchange, Strait Traffic Near Halt, Oil Surges 7%+

    The U.S.-Iran ceasefire framework has completely collapsed after two nights of massive military exchanges — the U.S. struck ~170 Iranian targets, Iran retaliated against U.S. bases in three Gulf states, Trump declared the MOU "over" and revoked Iran's oil waiver, the Strait threat level was raised to "severe," and traffic effectively stopped, sending Brent crude surging over 7% to near $80/bbl and triggering a broad risk-off selloff in equities.

    95 sources ~47 min

  • Strait of Hormuz Ceasefire Collapses; US and Iran Exchange Major Strikes, Oil Surges 6%

    The U.S.-Iran ceasefire collapsed on July 7-8 after Iran attacked at least three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting massive U.S. airstrikes on over 80 Iranian targets and Iran retaliating against U.S. bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, while the U.S. revoked Iran's oil sales waiver; Brent crude surged over 6% to $78.87/bbl, WTI jumped over 6% to $74.96/bbl, and Asian/European equities slumped as the risk premium violently re-entered the market.

    85 sources ~43 min

  • Iran Missile Attacks Resume in Strait of Hormuz, Testing Fragile Ceasefire

    Iran fired at least two missiles at commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night, hitting a Qatari LNG tanker and a Saudi crude oil tanker, marking the most significant violation of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire since late June and threatening to unravel the MOU signed less than three weeks ago; Brent crude rose 1.5% to $73.09/bbl on renewed risk premium.

    15 sources ~35 min

  • Hormuz Transit Recovers Amid Fragile Ceasefire, Red Sea Attack Resumes, Oil Falls to Pre-War Levels

    Oil prices fell below $72/bbl as Hormuz Strait shipping continued recovering — Saudi exports surged to near pre-war levels — but a cargo vessel attack in the Red Sea, Houthi threats against Saudi Arabia, an IRGC-enforced turnback of 8 ships, and a 60-day ceasefire clock that is ticking without a final deal leave the normalization narrative vulnerable to a reversal.

    12 sources ~31 min

  • Iranian Control Assertion Tightens on Omani Route, Oil Flows Resume but With Friction, Talks Progress, Brent Falls

    Iran's enforcement of its control posture is creating operational friction on the Omani route — at least eight ships turned back over the weekend, with Kpler showing only 19 crossings on Saturday — even as U.S. officials say the southern lane remains open with about 50 vessels passing recently, and positive progress in U.S.-Iran indirect talks has cooled supply concerns, sending oil back into a downward channel with U.S. SPR falling to 325.7 million barrels.

    4 sources ~28 min

  • Iranian Control Assertion Complicates Hormuz Reopening, OPEC Surge Flows In, Oil Near $72

    The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains complicated by Iran's assertive control posture — at least eight ships turned back near Oman's coast — even as UK/France deploy military assets to secure a southern Omani route, OPEC output surged 2.34 million bpd in June on resumed flows, and Citi sees Brent falling to $60-65 by year-end, reflecting a market that is pricing normalization but not the unresolved governance dispute.

    7 sources ~28 min

  • Strait of Hormuz: Iran Warns on Routes, Talks Paused for Funeral, Brent Falls to $72

    Oil prices edged up slightly on Friday but remain near pre-war lows near $72/bbl as the Strait of Hormuz reopening continues, with Iran's military issuing a new forceful warning on route compliance and the U.S.-Iran negotiation process paused for Khamenei's funeral, while Saudi crude exports have surged to 34 million barrels since the MOU, though structural risks from mines, unresolved control disputes, and a hardening U.S.-Saudi rift persist.

    20 sources ~41 min

  • Strait of Hormuz: Talks Progress Noted in Doha, Iran Warns on Routes, Oil Falls Below $71

    U.S. and Iranian indirect talks in Doha concluded with Qatar reporting "positive progress" while Iran's military issued a new warning that all vessels must follow Iranian-designated routes or face a "forceful response"; oil prices fell for a third consecutive day with Brent below $71/bbl and WTI near $68, as the market prices a supply-normalization narrative that has now overwhelmed residual risk premiums, even as transit data shows recovery is fragile and incomplete.

    19 sources ~39 min

  • Strait of Hormuz: Talks Resume in Doha Amid Fee Dispute, Ship Runs Aground, Oil Steady Near $73

    U.S. and Iranian officials resumed indirect technical talks in Doha on July 1, but disagreements over transit fees and Strait governance persist, with Iran remaining determined to enforce its control and a foreign container ship grounding underscoring Tehran's claims, while shipping traffic continues to recover slowly, insurance normalization remains years away, and Brent crude steadied near $73/bbl after a record quarterly drop.

    25 sources ~41 min

June 2026