Strait of Hormuz Disruption Nears Deal as US-Iran Talks Advance

1. Situation Overview

The past 24 hours have seen both military incidents—the US intercepting Iranian attack drones targeting commercial vessels—and a major diplomatic breakthrough, with multiple sources reporting that the US and Iran are close to a deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The strait has been effectively shut for more than 100 days, with WTO data showing a 95% reduction in crude oil shipments and 99% reduction in LNG carriers from Arabian Gulf ports. ^{[1][2][3][4][5]}

2. Key Parties’ Positions

• [NEW] Negotiation progress: Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated that the US and Iran agreed to the wording of an agreement aimed at ending their war and that mediators are working to finalize a deal. Three regional officials expect a signing ceremony in the coming days after approval from Washington and Tehran. The emerging deal is expected to include provisions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, phased lifting of sanctions on Iran, and release of frozen Iranian assets. ^[2][3][4][5]
• [NEW] US / main pressuring party: A senior US administration official said the emerging agreement would begin the process of destroying or removing Iran’s highly enriched uranium, noting the 60-day period after signing would be used to work out technical details. President Donald Trump claimed a secret US mission moved 100 million barrels of oil through the blocked strait, and later threatened to strike Iran “VERY HARD” and seize Kharg Island before withdrawing the threat hours later. ^{[1][2][3][4][5]}
• [NEW] Iran / counterparty: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the terms for dealing with Iran’s nuclear program would be finalized in the 60 days after the initial agreement is signed, with an option to extend. He reiterated that Iran wants a deal that allows Tehran to charge ships “for services rendered” when transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei cautioned that signing “will not be tomorrow” but could happen “in the coming days.” Iranian officials insist any broader regional settlement must include Lebanon and call for Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory. ^{[2][6][3][4][5]}
• [NEW] Israel: Defense Minister Israel Katz declared that Israel will not withdraw from occupied territories in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, and that the country must retain the ability to act independently to block Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. ^[5]

3. Military Actions

• [NEW] US: U.S. Central Command intercepted and destroyed several Iranian attack drones targeting commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on June 12. ^[2][3][4][5]
• [NEW] Iran: Iran launched attack drones targeting commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, which were intercepted by US forces. Iran also exchanged fire with the US and Israel over three days this week. ^[2][3][4]
• [NEW] Israel: On the morning of June 13, Israel issued evacuation warnings for nearly two dozen towns and villages in southern Lebanon, followed by airstrikes and artillery fire. ^[5]
• [NEW] Proxies (Hezbollah): Hezbollah said it targeted Israeli forces with barrages of rockets on June 12. ^[5]

4. Strait of Hormuz Transit Status

• [NEW] Control-status change: The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut for more than 100 days. The emerging US-Iran agreement includes provisions for reopening the waterway. Iran has imposed a toll system on transiting ships during the war, which the US and other nations say violates international law. The UAE’s national oil company estimates full flows will not resume until 2027, and IEA executive director Fatih Birol said more than 80 energy facilities have been damaged, with recovery potentially taking up to two years. ^{[1][2][3][4][5]}
• [NEW] Transit data: WTO data shows a 95% reduction in crude oil shipments from Arabian Gulf ports and a 99% reduction in LNG carriers. Shipping data indicates vessels are bypassing Iranian waters and using an Omani corridor; in the past 24 hours, no commercial vessels used the Iranian channel. Analyst Matt Stanley of Kpler estimates it is possible that 100 million barrels have passed through the strait since May 1 via covert methods, and Upper Zakum crude has been observed in other markets. ^[1][2][7]
• [NEW] Shipping / insurance signals: Vessels engaged in covert transit operate without AIS transponders, moving at night closer to the Omani border, sometimes with naval escort. Iran insists on receiving fees for providing services in the strait. ^[1][2][6][4]

5. Asset Implications

Asset	Direction	Horizon	Driver	Anchoring fact
Brent crude	range-soft (downside risk if deal signed)	days to weeks	Potential supply reopening (deal risk) / strategic reserve draw	Brent at $87.55, lowest since before conflict [1]; Guoxin projects 85-90/bbl [8]
Gold / precious metals	haven demand steady	days	Geopolitical uncertainty still elevated	Ongoing military incidents and fragile talks [2][4]
Global equities / risk sentiment	tentatively risk-on	intraday/days	Deal optimism may lift sentiment	US-Iran agreement wording finalized [2][3]
USD / haven currencies	mixed; USD may weaken on risk-on	days	If deal solidifies, haven demand eases	Correlation with oil price stability
Energy / shipping value chain	firm for tankers/insurance	months	Dark-trade premiums, infrastructure damage	Restart timelines 10 weeks to 2 years [1]

Mechanism read: The oil market is currently pricing a fragile equilibrium: Brent at pre-conflict levels despite the largest supply disruption on record, due to massive Chinese strategic reserve drawdown at ~1 million bpd, increased output from the US, Brazil, and Canada, and the expectation that the strait will reopen soon. If a deal is signed in the coming days, a supply overhang could push prices sharply lower—analyst Matt Stanley warns of a potential drop to $50. Conversely, if talks collapse or reopen timelines extend past July, the buffer depletes and a significant price spike becomes likely. The market is highly binary on the deal outcome.

6. Contrarian & Watch Signals

• Contrarian & tail risks: The consensus that a deal is imminent may be overpriced—previous declarations of a breakthrough have failed to materialize. If the strait remains closed into July, analyst Iman Nasseri expects things will change, implying mounting supply stress. A worst-case scenario: infrastructure damage (over 80 facilities hit) could delay any meaningful reopening by months to years, even after a political deal. On the flip side, a swift reopening combined with available surplus output could crash prices to $50, severely impacting OPEC+ fiscal positions and potentially triggering a new producer body. ^[1][4]
• Key watch signals: 1) Signing ceremony confirmation; 2) Brent breaking below $75 or above $100; 3) Daily commercial transits through the strait returning above zero; 4) IEA inventory data showing Chinese reserve drawdown rate; 5) Any Israeli/Iranian military escalation in Lebanon; 6) US domestic heating-oil inventory by late Q3. Confirmatory if a deal is signed and transits resume within weeks; break if talks collapse or a major military incident occurs. ^[1][8]
• Source quality control: The deal-close narrative relies heavily on anonymous officials and regional sources; social-media claims (Trump on Kharg Island) should be treated as single-source / unverified. The 100-million-barrel covert transit claim by Trump and Stanley’s estimates are not independently confirmed. ^[1][2][4][5]

Appendix: Further Reading

• ^[1] Wired — “The Strait of Hormuz Is Closed. So Why Is Oil Cheap?”
• ^[8] 国信证券 — “Oil Price Outlook: Strait Disruption and Supply Side Analysis”
• ^[5] NYT — “US-Iran Framework for Reopening Hormuz, Lebanon Conflict Continues”

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This report is intelligence & mechanism analysis, not investment advice.