sembr.live
中

Fed Watch

In-Line July CPI Trims September Odds to ~40–50% with One 2026 Hike Priced, While Record Auction Costs Keep the 30Y Near 5.24% — Front-End Easing vs Long-End Bond-Vigilante Split

July CPI matched expectations (core +0.2% m/m / 2.5% y/y), cutting September hike odds to roughly 40–50% across instruments and leaving only one 2026 hike priced , yet the long end kept climbing — a record 10-year auction yield, the first auction tail since May, and the 30-year near 5.24–5.26% — as supply, not the Fed, now drives yields .

57 sources ~43 min

0. Weekly Arc

The dovish repricing that began with Friday’s payrolls shock accelerated on the in-line July CPI: September hike odds fell from the ~50% coin flip into the 40s, and the market now prices just one 2026 hike, erasing most of the Warsh-era hawkish repositioning. Yet the long end is refusing to cooperate — the 30-year hovers near 5.24–5.26%, Thursday’s 30-year sale is expected to be the most expensive in a quarter-century, and the 10-year auction tail was the first since May. The regime is a split: a front-end easing trade versus a long-end bond-vigilante supply premium.

1. Policy Narrative & Expectations

The net change over the past ~24h is a dovish tilt in rate-path pricing colliding with a hardening long-end supply premium. The in-line CPI took September pricing down to ~40% on swaps [1] and BofA’s tracking [2], below 50% on CME FedWatch [3][4], with traders price in 58–66% odds of a hold [5][6] and only one 2026 hike left priced [7]. BofA cut its July core PCE tracker to +0.19% and says “the risk balance has shifted dovish” [8]; per Wallstreetcn, Renaissance Macro’s Neil Dutta said the print “hurts hawks more than doves,” making upcoming meetings “roughly a coin flip” [3]. But the long end moved the other way: the 30-year closed at 5.256% [1], Jim Bianco notes the September hike probability fell to 39% while the 30-year rose 16bp to 5.24% [1][9], and El-Erian argues “the high level of yields is… much more about the heavy weight of upcoming government and corporate debt supply” than inflation or Fed concerns [10]. Institutionally the hawks hold their line — BofA keeps 75bp of fall hikes [11][12], Hammack continues her multi-hike campaign [3][13][14], and Chair Warsh remains focused on the Dallas Fed trimmed-mean PCE, which is still above target [15][16].

1.1 FOMC Officials’ Remarks

  • [ESCALATED] Hawkish — Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed President, 2026 voter): reiterated through multiple relays that a single 25bp hike would have limited economic impact and “the Fed may need multiple rate hikes” to return inflation to 2%, adding that current rates are not “substantially restrictive” — she is among the Fed speakers scheduled for this week [17][3][13][14]. Marginal shift: same campaign as yesterday, now with a confirmed public-speaking slot that keeps the hawkish layer live into the CPI aftermath.
  • [NEW] Hawkish — Susan Collins (Boston Fed President): per HSBC, she signaled she “would raise rates if necessary to fight inflation,” though the market did not pull back sharply on the remark [18].
  • [NEW] Hawkish — John Williams (New York Fed President): wants monthly core inflation readings at 0.2% or below before he gains confidence that inflation is sustainably returning to 2% — the clearest numerical tripwire for the hold camp [15][16].
  • [NEW] Chair Kevin Warsh (listed separately): per Charles Schwab, Warsh treats the Dallas Fed trimmed-mean PCE — still above the 2% target — as a key inflation reference [15][16]; per Wallstreetcn, he acknowledged tighter financial conditions are “substituting for part of the Fed’s work” and that July payrolls and their revisions tempered near-term tightening expectations, without ruling out further hikes [13]; per Deutsche Bank, he criticized the balance sheet for blurring monetary-fiscal lines, exacerbating inequality and distorting market signals [19]. CICC reads the trimmed-mean focus, dot-plot de-emphasis and AI-in-reaction-function agenda as “apparently hawkish, actually dovish” — building a policy basis for earlier cuts [20].
  • [ONGOING] Hawkish — Schmid and Musalem (non-voters): reconfirmed they would have favored a July hike [13].
  • [ONGOING] Neutral — Mary Daly: her two-scenario formulation (shocks fade vs shocks compound) remains her baseline, with the gap between scenarios narrowing [3].
  • [NEW] (single source / unverified) — Nick Timiraos on the median voter: per a social relay, open questions on how a median FOMC voter (Jefferson/Paulson) justifies a forecast change that now says “tighter policy is required to get back on the disinflation track” [21].

1.2 Policy Signals & Institutional Communication

  • [ESCALATED] Fed independence — Cook removal: per AP via Tianfeng, the Trump administration again initiated the removal of Governor Lisa Cook — the first presidential attempt to remove a Fed governor since the Fed’s 1913 founding — with a 21-day response deadline of August 26 [22].
  • [NEW] Balance-sheet framework (Deutsche Bank): the Warsh-era task force is expected to keep the ample-reserves framework while reducing reserve demand, shifting to a Treasury-dominated portfolio, running down MBS and clarifying QE rules; a gradual process “unlikely to quickly create room for policy-rate cuts” [19].
  • [NEW] Fedspeak index: Bloomberg Economics’ gauge has turned hawkish but sits near 2016–18 levels, far below the 2022 peak — implying “a modest adjustment rather than an aggressive hiking cycle” [15][16].
  • [NEW] BofA: keeps 75bp of hikes starting in September but concedes benign inflation raises the risk hikes “will either be delayed (e.g., they might start in December) or won’t materialize”; FOMC swing voters need hotter-than-expected data [8][12].
  • [NEW] Goldman Sachs: expects the Fed on hold in September and through 2026, citing August core CPI/PCE around 0.2% and a methodology change that lowers core PCE y/y by 0.2pp [23][24].
  • [NEW] Citi: July core CPI at 0.16% m/m / 2.45% y/y would make “any 2026 hike very hard to justify”; a print at or above 0.3% m/m keeps the September hike on the table, making the August CPI decisive [25].
  • [ONGOING] Warsh’s five working groups: outcomes not yet released; Jackson Hole (Aug 27–29) is the next scheduled platform, with August CPI landing Sept 11 — one week before the FOMC [3][26].

2. Key Data & Market Read

  • [NEW] July CPI — in line: headline +0.1% m/m / 3.4% y/y and core +0.2% m/m / 2.5% y/y, roughly matching consensus [8][18][3][27][26][28][29]. Internals were mixed: core goods beat (smartphones +1.1% m/m, AI-related component demand) [8], IT goods prices jumped with computers/peripherals up the most since 2021 [27]; core services came in slightly below expectations and ex-shelter core services ran at a 2.5% six-month annualized pace — “a positive signal for the Fed” per BofA [8]; shelter was sticky (OER 3.2%, rents 2.9%, limited room to fall) [8]; supercore decelerated y/y but rebounded m/m, plus energy +14.7% y/y but decelerating [26]. Market read: eased concern about an imminent September hike [30][31][32][29], “a step in the right direction… no re-acceleration in inflation” per Edward Jones [33]; the June disinflation is partly a “rounding artifact” per Schwab, so underlying disinflation is not yet established [15].
  • [NEW] September repricing — a cluster, not a point: swaps ~40% (from ~50% pre-data) [1]; BofA 40% (from 48%) [2]; CME FedWatch 59.9% hold / 40.1% hike for September and 44.9% for a cumulative 25bp by October [4]; CME 62% hold (up from 52%) with Kalshi at 69% [28]; Reuters futures ~55% hold [34]; Bloomberg traders keeping ~50% hedged [35]; market now prices only one 2026 hike, “almost fully erasing the hawkish repricing after Warsh’s press conference” [7].
  • [NEW] Nearby calendar: July PPI, jobless claims and the EIA gas-storage report due later Thursday [36][37][17][5]; the Fed’s preferred PCE gauge later this month [3]; August CPI on Sept 11, one week before the FOMC, with August PCE after the meeting [3][13].
  • [NEW] Narrative impact: two consecutive months of y/y disinflation supports the hold case — BofA: if core averages 0.25% m/m over the next two months a September hike is “almost certain,” below 0.2% delays it, in between is a coin flip [13]; the September decision “now comes down to the August payrolls and CPI combination” [28]; Timiraos: the data eased September pressure but provided “no clear answer on the longer-term outlook” [3].

3. Financial-Conditions Signals

  • [EASED] Long-end levels: the 30-year ticked off yesterday’s 5.28% 19-year peak — early Thursday 10Y 4.674%, 2Y 4.176%, 30Y 5.236% [38]; Wednesday NY close: 2Y 4.193%, 5Y 4.378%, 10Y 4.690% (+0.62bp), 30Y 5.256% (+1.61bp) — the long end rose on the day despite the CPI [1].
  • [NEW] Auctions: the $42bn 10-year reopening cleared at 4.683% — the highest since 2007 — with a small tail above the pre-auction 4.682% level, the first 10-year auction tail since May [1]; the US is “likely to pay the highest borrowing rate for 30-year Treasury debt in a quarter-century” at Thursday’s auction [39].
  • [NEW] Long-end driver narrative: Bianco — the September hike probability went from above 100% pre-July 29 to 39%, while the 30-year rose 16bp to 5.24%; “the bond market has been rejecting the Fed’s easing policy for two years,” and yields “may peak once the Fed starts hiking” [1][9]; El-Erian — the high yield level reflects upcoming government and corporate debt supply more than inflation or Fed concerns [10]; AmeriVet’s Faranello — yields are “very hard to fall” given fiscal deficits, solid growth, ongoing wars and above-target inflation [1]; Bloomberg’s read — rising yields plus higher gold plus a weaker dollar signals investors expect inflation to persist above target [40].
  • [NEW] Dollar: the dollar weakened moderately after the CPI, with USD/JPY falling toward 158.85 and easing Japanese intervention pressure [8]; DXY at 99.60 as of Aug 7 [22].
  • [ONGOING] Gold: above $4,400 — rallied through its 100-DMA to $4,415/oz, London PM fix $4,426.65 [18]; HSBC notes the market has already priced at least one 25bp hike, limiting gold’s downside, but warns on profit-taking and more hawkish rhetoric [18]. Goldman lifts forecasts to $4,600 (Q3) / $4,836 (Q4); the PBoC extended its buying streak to 21 months with July’s largest monthly purchase since the 2024 restart [23][22]. Disagreement persists on whether this is a tactical bounce or a new bull leg [41].
  • [NEW] Credit: IG yields near 5.3% with heavy AI/M&A supply — $51.2bn on the week, $131.1bn on the month [2][42]; AI-related issuance of ~$220bn in H1 2026 is already above the full-year 2025 level [42]; securitized assets show a K-shaped divergence — subprime auto and non-agency mortgage stress vs prime resilience; BofA warns a sharp yield fall would weaken yield-sensitive IG demand [2][42].
  • [NEW] Liquidity/QT: per Deutsche Bank — the balance sheet is ~30% below peak, reserves run 11–12% of bank assets (vs 7–8% in 2019), and efficiency gains could shrink it by a further ~$500bn; MBS is ~30% of SOMA and will be run down gradually, with direct sales unlikely near-term [19].
  • [NEW] Mortgage transmission: the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.75% as of Aug 12, and a material drop is not guaranteed while inflation stays above target [43].

4. Global Central-Bank Linkages

  • [NEW] PBoC Q2 2026 report (released 8/12): reaffirms a moderately loose stance and shifts the short-end operational target from DR007 to DR001, planning to increase overnight reverse-repo frequency — operations capped at ¥600bn/day announced for Aug 14 and 17–19 [44][45][46][47]; external assessment upgraded to “more complex and volatile,” citing rising global inflation and overseas central-bank adjustments [45][48]; Goldman keeps its no-2026-cut base case, treating fiscal as the primary support while some domestic analysts expect a Q3-end easing window [49]; Citi reads the report as favoring structural reform and loan-pricing benchmark diversification over direct LPR cuts — actual lending rates are easing despite an unchanged LPR, and mortgage rates remain far above the 10-year CGB yield [50]; the PBoC cut structural-tool rates 25bp and extended gold purchases to 21 months [22][46].
  • [NEW] BOJ: July wholesale inflation rose 7.2% y/y — “reinforcing expectations for a September BOJ hike,” with AI-driven demand and Middle East raw-material costs cited [51]; per Huachuang, the July 30–31 joint intervention (BOJ leg ~$52.8bn, US leg $5–10bn — both estimates) unwound crowded yen shorts and signals US willingness to protect the Treasury market via the FIMA facility [52].
  • [NEW] RBA: Assistant Governor Christopher Kent warned inflation threats “remain on the upside” and “a lot of things” would need to go right to avert another rate hike [51].
  • [ONGOING] BOE/ECB: the BOE held 6-3 with Bailey signaling possible hikes if inflation persists, though Russell expects any near-term tightening to be offset by larger cuts later [53]; per the PBoC report, the ECB (hiked June 11) and BOJ (hiked June 16 to 1%) have moved while the Fed holds with a hawkish signal [48][54][47].

5. Asset Implications

This section is inference — anchored to the facts above.

QuadrantCurrent probability tiltKey asset implicationAnchoring narrative
Growth↑ + Inflation↑FallingIn-line CPI with decelerating energy and a soft payrolls pair take the overheating edge off; AI-driven core-goods strength (IT goods, smartphones) keeps a demand-pull reflation tail; commodities/TIPS are the cleaner expression while long nominal duration stays supply-blocked§2 / [8][27][26]
Growth↑ + Inflation↓RisingGoldilocks revival — Nasdaq futures ~+1%, Goldman’s on-hold Fed and risk-asset upside, strong Q2 earnings; front-end/belly duration and carry benefit most; the long end is the named constraint§1.2 / [23][33][13]
Growth↓ + Inflation↑Rising (tail)The stagflation pair sits intact: weak payrolls, sticky core ~2.5%, oil/Hormuz swing risk, Warsh’s trimmed-mean focus; gold is the two-sided hedge; a hot August CPI flips the whole curve back to positive correlation§1.1 / §2 / [26][21][28]
Growth↓ + Inflation↓RisingThe dominant read: two straight months of y/y disinflation, one 2026 hike priced, CICC’s easing-trade return; front-end rates and gold benefit, but the long end remains blocked by supply and credibility premia§2 / §3 / [7][20]

Stock-bond correlation call: BofA’s data show bond-stock correlation back to a positive 0.58 since 2022 — the inflation/term-premium-driven format has been the regime — and Huachuang’s 250-day rolling correlation sits persistently positive [11][52]. Today’s split — the front end rallying on easing while the long end rises on supply — keeps the positive-correlation format intact at the long end: the supply premium needs no Fed hike to push yields higher. A benign August CPI plus clean refunding outcomes would be required to flip the long end into a growth-driven negative-correlation regime where bonds hedge equities. Until then, long nominal bonds are not a reliable hedge for equity beta, and the 10Y auction tail plus the quarter-century-high 30-year borrowing cost are the mechanical proof points.

Risk-budget implication: Overweight gold — the rare two-sided expression: disinflation lowers real rates while the stagflation/supply tail, de-dollarization and record central-bank buying (PBoC 21 months) support it directly [18][23][22][20][52]. Overweight front-end/belly duration and curve steepeners — the “buy short, sell long” pattern [55] monetizes the collapsed September premium, which at 40–50% is now vulnerable in both directions [4][25]. Long-dated TIPS are getting paid “what seems like a lot” for decades-ahead inflation protection — an attractive convexity entry in a supply-premium regime [56]. Underweight long-end nominal duration until the supply/term-premium clears — El-Erian’s supply-dominance driver [10], the record auction costs [1], and Bianco’s “yields peak only when the Fed hikes” [9] all argue the long end is not the vehicle. In credit, prefer IG and high-quality securitized over subprime-auto/non-agency exposure per the K-shaped divergence [42], with BB fallen-angel high yield as BofA’s historical risk-adjusted standout [11]. In equities, BofA’s advice to rotate from crowded AI/semis toward cash-generative real-economy sectors (biotech, insurance, regional banks, small caps) frames the Q4 window [11]. In FX, dollar weakness is now data-driven (USD/JPY at 158.85, intervention pressure easing) [8], but express it via options given the two-sided August CPI.

6. Contrarian & Tail Risks

  • Consensus fragility — three mutually exclusive rate paths: the market prices roughly one 2026 hike, mostly not in September [7][6][35]; BofA still sees 75bp starting in September [11][12]; Goldman sees zero [23][24]; Citi argues the data now make any 2026 hike very hard to justify [25]. Bianco adds the contrarian twist — bond bulls should not necessarily want the Fed to skip September, since yields have risen as hike odds fell and may peak only once the Fed actually hikes [9]. The falsifiable test is August payrolls + August CPI (Sept 11) [3][28].
  • Consensus fragility — the long end: if El-Erian’s supply-dominance read is right, no amount of Fed hold/cut language caps yields while deficits and AI issuance crowd the curve [10]; the 10-year auction tail at a 2007-high yield [1] and BofA’s tracked core PCE still at 3.2% y/y [2] sit on the same side. BofA’s downside scenario — a sharp yield fall — requires sustained weak data plus an Iran deal [2].
  • Demand-pull inflation is the under-priced layer: CICC argues the inflation driver is shifting from tariff/oil supply shocks to AI-investment-driven demand, potentially extending the inflation cycle [27]; memory-price spikes could add up to ~0.5pp to core PCE [13]; BofA flags AI-related component demand in smartphones [8]; Timiraos notes the majority’s “transient shocks” assumption is facing growing challenges as shocks persist and compound with AI-infrastructure demand [3].
  • Fed independence and the median-voter tension: the Cook-removal process — the first since 1913, deadline Aug 26 — overlays the credibility question [22], while the median-voter forecast change flagged by Timiraos exposes the internal inconsistency of the hawkish-hold consensus [21].
  • Second-order transmission — liquidity-squeeze mechanics: Huachuang warns that when the stock-bond correlation is persistently positive, traditional diversification fails and all liquid assets can be sold simultaneously, citing the 2000 and 2007 precedents [52]; the US intervention via euro sales without prior ECB consultation signals that “when rules give way to interests,” de-dollarization and reserve-diversification demand strengthen [52]; the PBoC flags EM fragility from major-CB hiking spillovers [45][48][54][47].
  • Source quality control: the Bianco items (hike probability above 100%, the 30-year divergence, “yields peak once the Fed hikes”) and El-Erian’s supply-dominance claim are single-source social posts [10][9]; the Timiraos median-voter item is single-source/social [21]; BOJ/US intervention sizes are estimates or market speculation [52]; September-hold probabilities are a wide cluster (roughly 40% to 62% by instrument/timestamp) — treat as a band rather than a point [1][2][4][28][6][35][34]; and June’s flat core CPI is a rounding artifact per Schwab, so one favorable print is not an established disinflation trend [15][43].

Appendix: Additional Sources

  • [27] CICC Research — US inflation entering an AI demand-pull phase; IT goods price spikes
  • [26] Kaiyuan Securities — July CPI internals; supercore m/m rebound; 2026-hold base case with tail risks
  • [57] Orient Gold — Q3 headline disinflation toward a September cyclical low; September hinges on August CPI
  • [53] Russell Investments — BOE 6-3 hold; US Treasuries attractive; AI-buildout doubts
  • [42] Russell Investments — AI issuance reshaping IG; K-shaped securitized markets
  • [20] CICC — risk-asset upside incl. gold; easing-trade return scenario
  • [52] Huachuang Securities — joint yen intervention mechanics; positive stock-bond correlation and fragility
  • [45] BOC International — PBoC Q2 report; external environment “more complex and volatile”
  • [46] Wallstreetcn — PBoC Q2 report details; structural-tool rate cut; RMB appreciation
  • [55] ICBC Asia — “buy short, sell long” positioning; elevated UST/dollar with limited dollar upside

This report is a macro-mechanism analysis, not investment advice.

30-day review of this series 7/30 – 8/29
  • Warsh’s credibility shock became the regime’s axis. The July FOMC’s 9-3 hold and ambiguous presser triggered an EM-style credibility shock that pushed the 30-year to 2007 highs; over the following month the Chair’s no-forward-guidance experiment made every data release a “mini-FOMC,” with the Jackson Hole keynote emerging as the arbiter of whether the reaction-function premium would persist.
  • The rate path whipsawed from hike to hold and back. September hike odds collapsed from roughly two-thirds in early August, when soft payrolls and CPI/PPI flipped the debate toward labor-market tolerance, through a 27-32% trough, before a hot July PCE and hawkish FOMC minutes re-lifted pricing into a contested ~36-44% band entering Jackson Hole.
  • The long end developed its own term-premium wall. Yields rose even as front-end easing pricing deepened — the 30Y broke above 5.3%, then Bessent’s surprise doubling of buybacks bought barely two days of relief before the “Bessent put” fully unwound, confirming the move was fiscal and credibility risk, not policy-path dynamics.
  • Gold decoupled from rates into a debasement trade. Its driver shifted from real-yield opportunity cost to fiscal-credit risk, with the metal rallying through high long-end real rates to $4,700; the same dollar-credibility concern that blocked long nominal bonds became gold’s structural fuel.
  • The Treasury-Fed boundary battle blurred debt management with monetary policy. BofA’s “quasi-QE” framing, TGA-funded buybacks, and Fed RMP plans turned the long end into a political asset, with the dollar serving as the shock absorber and policy credibility itself the contested variable.

Sources57

  1. 10年期美债发行收益率，创金融危机以来最高 虎嗅 Score 64
  2. 略低于预期的CPI数据带来收益率下行风险 外资研报 Score 63
  3. 新美联储通讯社：通胀数据"不冷不热"，美联储暂获喘息但前路未明 华尔街见闻 Score 66
  4. 美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为59.9% 格隆汇快讯 Score 65
  5. Stock Market Today: Dow Futures Tick Higher -- Live Updates WSJ Score 71
  6. Traders See Lower Chances of September Rate Hike WSJ Score 66
  7. 美国非农、通胀数据后，市场对美联储加息预期大跌 华尔街见闻 Score 66
  8. 美国7月CPI通胀符合预期：美联储加息风险转向鸽派 外资研报 Score 62
  9. For those who want to be bullish on bonds, do you really want the Fed to NOT hike rates in September? Consider: The red line is the probability of a F... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 64
  10. Today’s Treasury price action, which followed a benign CPI print and moderating rate-hike expectations, supports the view that the “high" level of y... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 70
  11. 美银全球研究：跨资产观点与投资者常见问题解答 外资研报 Score 61
  12. Here are five key takeaways from the July CPI inflation report CNBC Score 61
  13. 今晚美国CPI料温和放缓，9月加息预期或再遭一击 虎嗅 Score 65
  14. [银泰证券]鑫新闻 内资策略报告 Score 60
  15. 美联储与财政部更新：收益率将在更长时间内维持高位 资管报告 Score 70
  16. 美联储与国债更新：收益率更高更久 资管报告 Score 68
  17. Earnings, Fed Speakers: What to Watch the Rest of the Week WSJ Score 65
  18. 贵金属日报：金价受CPI提振延续涨势，警惕美联储鹰派言论 外资研报 Score 60
  19. 宏观 Matters：美联储资产负债表任务小组前瞻与政策展望 外资研报 Score 65
  20. 全球流动性到拐点了吗？ 华尔街见闻 Score 62
  21. RT Nick Timiraos: Re @WarrenPies The questions are whether/how a median FOMC voter (Jefferson/Paulson) justifies a forecast change—on the basis of ei... Twitter·财经快讯 Score 66
  22. 央行持续增持黄金 开达策略知行 Score 62
  23. 宏观研究焦点：美国通胀有利但劳动力市场疲软，风险资产进一步反弹，发行量激增 外资研报 Score 66
  24. 唱反调！高盛策略师：美联储年内或将全线按兵不动，驳斥市场加息预期 华尔街见闻 Score 61
  25. 每日更新：今年最重要的数据点 外资研报 Score 62
  26. [开源证券]美国7月CPI点评：通胀温和回落，美联储加息的门槛仍较高 内资宏观研究 Score 60
  27. 中金：美国通胀进入“换挡期” 中金点睛 Score 61
  28. Tepid CPI report gives the Fed more breathing room CNBC Score 60
  29. US Core Inflation Was Subdued in July, Easing Pressure on Fed Bloomberg Score 60
  30. Asian Stocks Poised to Gain on Benign US Inflation: Markets Wrap Bloomberg Score 62
  31. In-Line Inflation Reading Buys the Fed More Time to Defend Its Forecast WSJ Score 60
  32. Nick Timiraos: What the July CPI Report Means for the Fed WSJ Score 66
  33. Wall Street Likes the Latest Inflation Report WSJ Score 62
  34. Traders stick to narrow bets on September Fed hold after inflation data Reuters Score 65
  35. Bond Traders Keep Cointoss Wager on September Fed Hike Post-CPI Bloomberg Score 68
  36. U.S. Futures Edge Higher After Subdued Inflation Data WSJ Score 63
  37. U.S. Futures Edge Higher After Subdued Inflation Data WSJ Score 63
  38. Treasury yields dip as Wall Street awaits wholesale inflation data CNBC Score 64
  39. Japanese Drama Is No Sideshow for U.S. Markets WSJ Score 62
  40. Bonds, Dollar and Gold Are Flashing an Inflation Warning Bloomberg Score 73
  41. 温和通胀、加息预期降温和美元走弱重新点燃黄金买盘，但分歧仍在：这只是战术性反弹，还是长期牛市重启？杰克逊霍尔会议、美联储政策与通胀风险将成为关键变量。... 金十-快讯 Score 62
  42. AI借贷重塑债券市场 资管报告 Score 63
  43. Inflation just fell again. Is that good news for mortgage rates? CBS News Score 60
  44. 央行最新货币政策报告明确短端利率调控方向，释放了什么信号 澎湃新闻 Score 63
  45. [中银证券]2026年二季度货币政策执行报告学习体会：对外保持稳定，对内积极改革 内资宏观研究 Score 66
  46. 中国央行Q2货币政策执行报告：适度宽松货币政策效果持续显现，金融服务实体经济质效不断提升 华尔街见闻 Score 62
  47. 央行Q2货政报告专栏：逐步增加隔夜逆回购的操作频率，进一步畅通政策利率向市场利率的传导 华尔街见闻 Score 67
  48. 输入型通胀压力显现，央行最新报告聚焦海外货币政策变局 第一财经-资讯 Score 64
  49. 中国：央行二季度货币政策报告——宽松措辞加强，但具体货币措施有限 外资研报 Score 63
  50. 偏好改革而非降息？——央行2026年二季度货币政策报告要点解读 外资研报 Score 61
  51. Fed bets cool, BOJ wagers heat up Reuters Score 61
  52. 张瑜：七问美日联合干预日元汇率 一瑜中的 Score 61
  53. 央行维持利率不变，半导体波动性回归 资管报告 Score 65
  54. 关于货币政策、物价水平等，央行最新报告释放了哪些信号？ 澎湃新闻 Score 66
  55. [工银亚洲]偏弱宏观数据支持美联储继续“按兵不动” 内资宏观研究 Score 70
  56. Inflation Protection Is on Sale WSJ Score 64
  57. [东方金诚]美国2026年7月CPI数据点评：总量通胀回落令短期加息压力缓解，但政策悬念延后至8月数据 内资宏观研究 Score 60