sembr.live
中

Fed Watch

Warsh's Jackson Hole debut: FOMC split on whether policy is tight enough, September hold ~64% vs hike ~36%, long end held below intervention lines; gold's rally shifts from a rates trade to a debasement trade

Jackson Hole is the arbiter — the FOMC is publicly split over whether policy is restrictive enough (Schmid and Hammack vs Collins and Goolsbee), September hold pricing sits near 63.5% with a hike nearly certain by end-year, and the long end holds just below the Treasury's intervention lines ahead of Warsh's keynote, with gold's driver having shifted from a rates trade to a fiscal-debasement trade .

63 sources ~38 min

0. Weekly Arc

The week’s arc tightened around a single node: Fed Chair Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote tonight (8/28 22:00 CST). The post-payrolls dovish repricing gave way to a hawkish drift as July PCE (headline 3.7%, core 3.3% y/y) lifted September-hike odds from ~36% to ~44% before settling back near 36.5% (FedWatch). July minutes showed broad support for tightening if inflation stalls. Schmid and Hammack argued current rates are not restrictive enough, while Collins and Goolsbee pushed back. Bessent’s doubled long-end buybacks stabilized the 30Y just below 5.19–5.3%, gold’s rally decoupled from real rates, and the dollar weakened on intervention expectations.

1. Policy Narrative & Expectations

The past ~24h was a wait-and-see consolidation rather than a repricing: FedWatch still prices a 63.5% September hold vs a 36.5% 25bp hike, with October a near coin-flip (47.3% hold / 43.4% hike / 9.3% 50bp) and a hike nearly certain by year-end [1][2]. Inflation and fiscal concerns plus AI-corporate bond supply crowding out Treasury demand kept the curve up 2–3bp, with the 2Y at 4.23%, 10Y 4.67%, 30Y 5.19% [3][4][5]. The institutional debate is split: Citi argues the long-end selloff is real-rate/AI-productivity-driven and a “credibility hike” is unnecessary [6]; BofA frames the regime as “quasi-QE/YCC” aimed at sustaining both the economy and political capital [7][8]; Deutsche Bank’s Matt Luzzetti flags the June minutes’ two scenarios as the framework Warsh may reference [3].

1.1 FOMC Officials’ Remarks

  • {LABEL} Hawkish: Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid — rates “are not restraining the economy” with inflation above target; he may belong to the dissenting camp that favored a July hike, and short-end rates may be too loose [9][10][11]. He rebutted the view that Fed credibility is damaged [11].
  • {LABEL} Hawkish: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack — “now is the time to act,” current rates are not restrictive enough, and she expects inflation to end the year around 3% [12][13][14][15][16]. She sees the neutral rate as higher than other officials’ estimates and warned of an “inflation mindset” taking hold [17][18][19]. She dissented in favor of a 25bp hike at the July FOMC [17][14].
  • {LABEL} Hawkish (camp): Schmid and Hammack explicitly said the Fed should raise rates if it wants inflation back to 2% within a reasonable timeframe [9].
  • {LABEL} Dovish: Boston Fed President Susan Collins — policy is “slightly restrictive” and still working; she called July PCE “mixed” with encouraging details, does not think the bond yield rise signals rising inflation expectations, and still expects gradual disinflation without further tightening [9][20][21][22][23][24]. But she left the door open: “if there is no clear evidence of sustained inflation improvement, further tightening might be appropriate ‘soon’” — possibly meaning the next one or two meetings [20][25].
  • {LABEL} Dovish: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee — the three-month inflation data “looks not bad,” the economy is stable, and the low-hiring/low-layoff labor market is “unusual” [26]. He also said political pressure on the Fed “puts me on edge,” noting that political interference generally leads to inflation [27][28].
  • {LABEL} Chairman — Kevin Warsh (listed separately): No fresh remarks today; the keynote (8/28 22:00 CST) is the week’s event [29]. Since taking office he has abandoned forward guidance and reduced the Fed’s policy-relevance signals; JPM’s NLP model shows his July Q&A was significantly less hawkish than his prepared remarks, with a monetary-policy relevance score of only 10–30% [30][4][31]. JPM expects limited guidance and modest volatility due to no Q&A plus balanced positioning [4]. Deutsche Bank expects a high-level macro narrative with task-forces and AI likely the focus [1]. BofA warns a failure to thread the needle pushes the 10Y through 4.7% and the 30Y through 5.3% (the Aug 19 intervention alert line), weakening the dollar; HSBC’s Dhiraj Narula sees the speech as an opportunity to stem the long-end selloff and compress the uncertainty-term-premium [7][3].

1.2 Policy Signals & Institutional Communication

  • {LABEL} ESCALATED — July FOMC minutes: many officials, including non-voters, favored a rate hike, and many others said policy must tighten if inflation does not decline [11]; three officials dissented in favor of a 25bp hike in July [31][14].
  • {LABEL} NEW — Fed communication paradigm shift: Warsh’s weakened forward guidance lowers policy predictability and directly raises term premia [5][32]; the policy-rate uncertainty index has stayed elevated since May despite weaker data [32].
  • {LABEL} NEW — Treasury-Fed boundary battle: Bessent doubled long-end buybacks to at least $4bn per operation and said any balance-sheet changes will be coordinated with the Fed; Timiraos notes lower long-term yields would ease financial conditions “right as the Fed may not want that,” with a former Fed adviser calling the pre-Jackson-Hole timing “a slap in the face” [33][34][31].
  • {LABEL} NEW — BofA’s quasi-QE framing: BofA classifies the current policy as a “quasi-QE/YCC” new stage, noting the buyback program expires Nov 4 — one day before the midterms [7][8].
  • {LABEL} NEW — Fed RMP resumption: Barclays expects the Fed to resume Reserve Management Purchases from October, scaling to ~$20bn/month on T-bill supply, TGA balances and seasonal GSIB balance-sheet pressure [35][5].
  • {LABEL} NEW — 2026 midterms: Kansas City Fed’s Schmid said midterms will not affect the Fed’s October decision [36]; SPDB International sees a divided Congress (50% probability) as base case, under which 10Y yields tend to decline [37].
  • {LABEL} NEW — CME chief economist view: with fiscal policy expansionary and Fed policy neutral-to-tight, the Treasury’s shift to short-dated issuance is injecting liquidity and could act as covert easing, risking higher inflation expectations [38].

2. Key Data & Market Read

  • {LABEL} ESCALATED — July PCE: headline 3.7% y/y, core 3.3% y/y, both +0.2% m/m; core PCE rose 0.25% m/m with June revised from 0.13% to 0.15% [35][14][29]. Collins called it in line with her judgment, “mixed” with encouraging details; Hammack said it was in line with Fed expectations [20][22][15].
  • {LABEL} ESCALATED — Market read: fed funds futures lifted September-hike odds from ~36% to ~44% after the release [29]; FedWatch as of 8/27 22:22 UTC showed 63.5% hold / 36.5% hike [2].
  • {LABEL} NEW — Q2 GDP: real GDP +1.5% annualized, slowing from Q1’s 2.1%; JPM lifted its Q3 forecast by 0.25pp to 2.75% on strong durable goods and PCE consumer momentum, with the payroll benchmark revision hinting at limited labor-market slack [39][29].
  • {LABEL} NEW — Labor market: unemployment fell from a 4.5% peak to 4.1%, the wage-growth slowdown has stalled, indicating a tightening labor market [35]; Citi notes August NFP has historically run 23k below consensus [6].
  • {LABEL} NEW — Narrative impact: the PCE mix keeps the Fed split — sticky core services vs a cooling headline path; Nomura says September hinges entirely on the upcoming jobs report, with a clear beat tilting the Fed toward a September hike [40][1].

3. Financial-Conditions Signals

  • {LABEL} NEW — Rates: real yields, not fiscal panic: Citi argues the 30Y selloff is driven mainly by real yields (energy, equities, Iran risk, AI productivity), with the fiscal-risk premium (inverse ASW) actually compressing [6]; Goldman sees 10Y nominal yields up 35–45bp YTD driven by real rates, while breakevens have fallen back to pre-war levels [41].
  • {LABEL} NEW — Term-premium decomposition: from 6/29–8/21 the 10Y rose ~37bp — inflation expectations +13bp, real rates +24bp, with term premium contributing nearly 100% per the NY Fed ACM model [32]; Huachuang’s assessment is that market liquidity has not shown shock-level stress — the bid/skew remains stable, with tail risk skewed to long-end yield upside [32].
  • {LABEL} NEW — Dollar: Citi is bearish USD via EUR (target ~1.1750 via options), gold and high-yield EM FX (ZAR, MXN, COP, TRY) — its basis being expectations of lower oil prices and a softening US labor market [6]; Barclays also expects the dollar to weaken as a US-specific risk premium rebuilds, partially offset by strong US growth [33]. The USDX is weaker MTD on weak data and intervention expectations [42].
  • {LABEL} NEW — Gold — the “debasement trade”: UBS argues the rally’s driver has shifted from a traditional rates trade to a currency-debasement trade: gold’s logic has moved from an opportunity-cost to a fiscal-credit framework, with high long-end real rates no longer capping gold when they reflect fiscal risk rather than economic strength [43]. Gold is up ~17% in August, touched $4,700/oz in late August; UBS cut its 2026 target by 6% to $4,675/oz but kept upside at up to $6,500/oz [43][44]. A hawkish Fed is the key near-term downside risk [43].
  • {LABEL} NEW — Flows & positioning: BofA’s Bull & Bear Indicator rose to 9.7 (sell signal); bonds saw $17bn inflows (70th straight positive week), gold $7.3bn (largest since Oct 2025), crypto $3.2bn, while US equities posted their first weekly outflow in five weeks (−$4.4bn) and HY had the largest outflow since April (−$0.7bn) [7][8]. 82% of global equity indices are overbought, close to the 88% sell threshold [7][8].
  • {LABEL} NEW — Credit: Goldman’s Global Credit Trader turns cautious on duration: USD IG/HY spread-rate correlations have turned positive, real rates are lifting term premia, and rate risk has re-emerged as the key driver for credit — it prefers cash credit and income over total-return bets, USD/EUR HY over loans, and expects USD IG spreads to widen from 79bp toward 85bp in Q3 [41].

4. Global Central-Bank Linkages

  • {LABEL} ESCALATED — ECB: July meeting accounts were more hawkish than the press conference — a significant part of the Governing Council was prepared to hike immediately, viewing the option value of waiting as small; all members nonetheless agreed to hold at 2.25% [45][46]. Markets broadly expect a hike in two weeks; DB forecasts a final hike to 2.50% in September [45][47][46]. Schnabel says rates must rise further; Cipollone warns against overtightening [46].
  • {LABEL} ESCALATED — BOJ: market pricing implies an 84% probability of a September hike; Japan’s 2Y forward OIS at 2.23% is near the upper bound of the BOJ’s 1.1%-2.5% neutral range, so further JGB rises will be overseas-driven and concentrated at the long end [40]; Deputy Governor Himino made hawkish remarks emphasizing upside inflation risks without committing to September [40].
  • {LABEL} NEW — Bank of Korea / Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas: both delivered surprise 25bp hikes — Korea to 3.00% and the Philippines to 5.00%, underlining accelerating Asian tightening [39][33]; JPM expects half of EM-Asia central banks to hike next quarter, aligned with DM tightening [39].
  • {LABEL} NEW — PBoC: gold reserves reached 76.08mn oz at end-July, up 0.64mn oz m/m — the largest monthly increase since the 2024 restart — bringing gold to ~9% of China’s FX reserves [44].

5. Asset Implications

This section is inference — anchored to the facts above.

QuadrantCurrent probability tiltKey asset implicationAnchoring narrative
Growth↑ + Inflation↑Steady-to-risingCommodities (+61.8% YTD), TIPS and gold are the cleaner expressions while long nominal bonds stay blocked by term premium and supply; BofA recommends the natural-resources ETF as a policy/political-risk hedge§1.2 / §3 / [7]
Growth↑ + Inflation↓SteadyJPM’s Q3 growth upgrade to 2.75% and strong global earnings support equities, but 82% overbought breadth caps beta; HSBC favors stocks positively correlated with yields (financials, energy, industrials)§2 / §3 / [48][39]
Growth↓ + Inflation↑Rising (tail)The stagflation pair is live — oil at $90/bbl, IEA Q3 deficit ~1.8mb/d, SPR at a 1982 low; gold is the hedge, long nominal bonds are not; Citi reads the long-end move as real-rate/AI-productivity-driven rather than fiscal panic§2 / §3 / [6][44]
Growth↓ + Inflation↓FallingDisinflation narrative weakens with sticker July PCE and >70% year-end hike pricing; front-end/belly carry and gold remain the expressions§1 / §2 / [1]

Stock-bond correlation call: the regime is in the configuration hardest for risk parity — a positive stock-bond correlation structure. Huachuang notes the 250-day rolling correlation between US stocks and bonds has been persistently positive, with long-end yields high and equity volatility rising [32]. Citi’s decomposition (real-rate driven, ASW compressed) and Goldman’s observation that USD IG/HY spread-rate correlations have turned positive both point in the same direction: rising real yields/term premia now transmit negatively to both equities and long duration [41][6]. The long end is no longer a hedge; gold has become the substitute hedge — UBS’s “debasement trade” framing and the 17% August rally despite high real rates confirm that the marginal driver is fiscal-credit risk, not the rates cycle [43].

Risk-budget implication: Overweight gold and commodities — the two-sided hedge with the cleanest narrative support (UBS’s fiscal-credit framework, BofA’s quasi-QE allocation effect of cutting USD and adding gold, the strongest weekly gold inflows since October 2025) [7][8][43]. Overweight front-end/belly duration and cash — FedWatch’s 63.5% September hold, Barclays’ expectation of RMP resumption from October, and Citi’s TGA-withdrawal-eases-financial-conditions logic all support front-end carry [6][35][2]. Underweight long-end nominal duration — the term-premium wall (near-100% contribution per ACM), the Treasury-Fed boundary battle, and YTD 30Y performance of -1.9% argue against fighting supply [7][32]. In credit, prefer cash credit and HY over loans and long IG duration per Goldman, but respect the positive spread-rate correlation [41]. Express the dollar view through gold and EM FX rather than a naked USD short [6][33].

6. Contrarian & Tail Risks

  • Consensus fragility: the market prices 63.5% September hold / 36.5% hike with a hike nearly certain by year-end; BofA’s “no fear” consensus rests on four assumptions — no hard landing, no Fed hikes, no AI capex cuts, and no Democratic midterm sweep [7][8][2]. Falsifiable pillars: (1) Warsh provides clarity — BofA warns a failed communication pushes the 10Y through 4.7% and 30Y through 5.3% (the intervention line), with defensives outperforming [7]; (2) Bessent’s buyback works — Timiraos notes lower long-term yields would ease financial conditions “right as the Fed may not want that,” and Jon Faust says success would push a large majority of FOMC members toward supporting hikes [34][31]; (3) the real-rate story holds — Citi’s decomposition argues the long-end rise is not fiscal panic, but the 7/31 deficit spike to ~$432bn and CBO’s deficit upgrade to $2.1tn are live fiscal signals [6][32]; (4) a credibility hike is unnecessary — Citi refutes it, while Schmid/Hammack/Schmid argue rates are not restrictive enough [6][9][17][11].
  • Second-order transmission: fiscal-monetary fusion — a USD-liquidity expansion via TGA-funded buybacks could raise bank reserves and be positive for bitcoin and risk assets while bearish for the dollar [6]; if the Treasury’s “regular and predictable” principle breaks further, the dollar bears the adjustment and gold’s position as the fiat-currency alternative strengthens [31][43]. AI — Marvell’s post-earnings drop pressured AI-trade enthusiasm, and BofA notes AI infrastructure (SOX) and Magnificent Seven underperformance versus AI adopters (XLV, XLF) reverses only below a 5% 30Y [7][3]. A steepening curve with positive stock-bond correlation raises the risk of liquidity-driven asset selling (Huachuang cautions that a liquidity shock would hit both stocks and bonds simultaneously) [32]. Energy — oil at $90/bbl with an IEA-projected 1.8mb/d Q3 deficit keeps inflation pressure live, and US-Iran geopolitical factors raise Fed policy uncertainty [44].
  • Source quality control: the “ten Fed officials warning about inflation” count is internally inconsistent (post headline says three, the linked Reuters URL says two) [49][50]; Hammack and Goolsbee comments are substantially single-source social relays [25][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][16][59][27][28][60]; the Bessent coordination comments and the Treasury official’s “yields to decline” line are single-source/unverified [61][31]; general note — the CME FedWatch snapshot (8/27 22:22 UTC) differs from the Reuters fed-funds-futures path of 44% September pricing — treat September odds as a ~36–44% band [2][29].

Appendix: Additional Sources

  • [62] Barclays — EM weekly; EM bond funds outpace equity funds for a third week
  • [40] Nomura — US terminal-rate upside; BOJ near neutral upper bound; 84% September hike pricing
  • [38] CME chief economist — T-bill issuance as covert easing
  • [30] Gelonghui/CCTV Finance — Jackson Hole symposium open; year-end hike odds >70%
  • [47] Deutsche Bank (Yared) — market terminal 2.75% not a policy overshoot
  • [5] Yuekai Securities — long-end drivers; demand-side is the marginal change
  • [32] Huachuang Research — term-premium decomposition; stock-bond positive correlation tail risk
  • [42] Citi QMGS — allocator pro-risk; EM FX crowded long
  • [44] Dongwu Securities — gold/copper/oil sustainability; SPR at 290mn bbl; IEA deficit
  • [63] GF Securities — overseas rate rise with weaker dollar/gold implies rising sovereign credit-risk premium

This report is a macro-mechanism analysis, not investment advice.

30-day review of this series 7/30 – 8/29
  • Warsh’s credibility shock became the regime’s axis. The July FOMC’s 9-3 hold and ambiguous presser triggered an EM-style credibility shock that pushed the 30-year to 2007 highs; over the following month the Chair’s no-forward-guidance experiment made every data release a “mini-FOMC,” with the Jackson Hole keynote emerging as the arbiter of whether the reaction-function premium would persist.
  • The rate path whipsawed from hike to hold and back. September hike odds collapsed from roughly two-thirds in early August, when soft payrolls and CPI/PPI flipped the debate toward labor-market tolerance, through a 27-32% trough, before a hot July PCE and hawkish FOMC minutes re-lifted pricing into a contested ~36-44% band entering Jackson Hole.
  • The long end developed its own term-premium wall. Yields rose even as front-end easing pricing deepened — the 30Y broke above 5.3%, then Bessent’s surprise doubling of buybacks bought barely two days of relief before the “Bessent put” fully unwound, confirming the move was fiscal and credibility risk, not policy-path dynamics.
  • Gold decoupled from rates into a debasement trade. Its driver shifted from real-yield opportunity cost to fiscal-credit risk, with the metal rallying through high long-end real rates to $4,700; the same dollar-credibility concern that blocked long nominal bonds became gold’s structural fuel.
  • The Treasury-Fed boundary battle blurred debt management with monetary policy. BofA’s “quasi-QE” framing, TGA-funded buybacks, and Fed RMP plans turned the long end into a political asset, with the dollar serving as the shock absorber and policy credibility itself the contested variable.

Sources63

  1. 今晚十点！沃什亮相杰克逊霍尔，如何回应两大棘手问题 第一财经-资讯 Score 61
  2. 美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为63.5% 格隆汇快讯 Score 65
  3. 市场能否等来明确性？沃什杰克逊霍尔首秀前，亚太股市上涨，美股美债续跌 第一财经-资讯 Score 63
  4. 美国国债市场日报：沃什讲话前瞻与技术面分析 外资研报 Score 63
  5. [粤开证券]【粤开宏观】如何看待美债市场波动：共识与分歧 内资宏观研究 Score 61
  6. 破除美债担忧迷思：全球债券过剩背景下的观点与交易策略 外资研报 Score 62
  7. 今夜，沃什能否拯救美债？或决定AI牛市命运 华尔街见闻 Score 61
  8. The Flow Show: Investing with Pleasure 外资研报 Score 62
  9. 沃什在杰克逊霍尔年会讲话前夕 美联储官员就通胀前景释放矛盾信号 格隆汇快讯 Score 64
  10. FED’S SCHMID SAYS RATES NOT RESTRAINING ECONOMY, HINTS AT HIKES Twitter·财经快讯 Score 61
  11. 美联储施密德：美联储政策仍偏宽松 通胀仍高于目标 格隆汇快讯 Score 65
  12. 格隆汇8月28日｜美联储哈玛克：预计通胀进展缓慢，年末应在3%左右。 格隆汇快讯 Score 61
  13. 三位地区联储主席接连发声，集体对通胀粘性表达担忧。施密德直言利率可能没有真正限制经济，古尔斯比担忧高通胀预期固化，哈马克则称“现在是采取行动的时候”。... 金十-快讯 Score 61
  14. 美联储哈马克称利率尚未达到限制性水平，现在正是行动时机 格隆汇快讯 Score 61
  15. 格隆汇8月27日｜美联储的哈马克表示，昨天的PCE通胀数据符合我们的预期，相信现在就是行动的时候了；在金融环境中，没有看到政策构成任何限制。 格隆汇快讯 Score 62
  16. Fed's Hammack: Now is time to act given persistence of inflation. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 63
  17. 美联储哈马克重申抗通胀立场：利率限制性仍然不够 格隆汇快讯 Score 62
  18. Fed’s Hammack: neutral rate seen higher than other Fed officials Twitter·财经快讯 Score 69
  19. Fed's Hammack: concerned inflationary mindset may be taking hold Twitter·财经快讯 Score 64
  20. 美联储柯林斯：若通胀降温不及预期 可能支持加息 格隆汇快讯 Score 61
  21. 格隆汇8月28日｜美联储柯林斯：最新PCE报告并未改变基本判断，当前货币政策仍具限制性，并将推动通胀逐步回落。 格隆汇快讯 Score 63
  22. 格隆汇8月28日｜美联储柯林斯：近期通胀数据“喜忧参半”，整体通胀数据强于预期，但细项中出现了一些“令人鼓舞的迹象”。 格隆汇快讯 Score 62
  23. 格隆汇8月28日｜美联储柯林斯：近期债券收益率的上升仍与价格稳定一致，并不意味着通胀预期在上升。 格隆汇快讯 Score 62
  24. Fed's Collins: The recent personal consumption expenditures report did not change the overall outlook that current monetary policy is restrictive and ... Twitter·财经快讯 Score 61
  25. Fed’s Collins Says Rate Increase Warranted If Inflation Disappoints - WSJ https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/feds-collins-says-rate-increase... Twitter·财经快讯 Score 66
  26. 美联储古尔斯比：三个月通胀数据看起来并不糟糕 格隆汇快讯 Score 61
  27. Fed's Goolsbee: Political interference in central banks generally leads to inflation. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 66
  28. Fed's Goolsbee: Political pressure on the Fed puts me on edge. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 62
  29. 美联储主席沃什重磅演讲将至，将向市场释放什么信号？ 澎湃新闻 Score 65
  30. 全球货币政策风向标来了 市场认为：美联储年底加息概率超70% 格隆汇快讯 Score 63
  31. “新美联储通讯社”：贝森特频繁出手，美联储独立性边界遭受考验 华尔街见闻 Score 61
  32. 张瑜：扬汤止沸易，釜底抽薪难——长端美债的五点思考 一瑜中的 Score 62
  33. 新兴市场周报：利率、落基山脉与韧性 外资研报 Score 61
  34. The Fed is divided over whether policy is tight enough and now comes a new complication: what if Bessent's push on bond yields works? Lower long-term ... Twitter·财经快讯 Score 66
  35. 全球利率周报：局势必将生变 外资研报 Score 66
  36. 美国堪萨斯城联储主席：中期选举不会影响美联储10月份的会议决定。利率并未抑制美国经济 华尔街见闻 Score 62
  37. [浦银国际证券]美国中期选举主题研究：宏观经济政策新走向与资产配置再布局 内资宏观研究 Score 63
  38. 美国财政债务管理正在为金融体系注入流动性 虎嗅 Score 67
  39. 每日经济简报：亚洲新兴市场紧缩加速，全球企业利润激增 外资研报 Score 61
  40. 松泽晨报：美国终端利率预期上行空间最大，日本国债收益率受海外驱动 外资研报 Score 61
  41. 全球信用交易员：利率重回焦点 外资研报 Score 63
  42. 量化全球宏观策略：资金流向何方？超配新兴市场，美元观点分化 外资研报 Score 64
  43. 从“利率交易”转向“美元贬值交易” ，黄金上涨的逻辑变了 华尔街见闻 Score 61
  44. 【东吴芦哲】如何看待金铜油共振的持续性？ 宏观fans哲 Score 60
  45. 欧洲央行7月会议纪要：鹰派暂停，暗示9月可能再次加息 外资研报 Score 62
  46. 欧洲央行会议纪要：官员们讨论了采取“温和限制性”货币政策的必要性 格隆汇快讯 Score 60
  47. 欧洲央行：利率高企是否过度？ 外资研报 Score 62
  48. 美股策略：高利率对企业、消费者及股市的影响 外资研报 Score 60
  49. 🇺🇸 #Fed’s #JacksonHole Conference Is Underway: Here’s What to Expect - Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-28/fed-s-jack... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 65
  50. 🇺🇸 As Jackson Hole conference kicks off, three #Fed officials issue inflation warnings - Reuters https://www.reuters.com/business/jackson-hole-c... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 61
  51. Fed's Collins: The recent inflation data was mixed, with the headline figure stronger than expected, but there are promising signs in the details. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 61
  52. Fed's Collins: Watching bond yields, but has no comment on Bessent's intervention. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 60
  53. Fed's Collins: Recent increase in bond yields still consistent with price stability, not a sign inflation expectations are increasing. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 67
  54. Fed's Hammack: I expect slow progress on inflation, should end year around 3%. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 60
  55. Fed's Hammack: Treasury has its own objectives, Fed operates independently for its own goals. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 67
  56. Fed's Hammack: You recognize neutral monetary policy when you see it Twitter·财经快讯 Score 64
  57. Fed's Hammack: Above target has been persistent amid questions of how shocks will play out. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 65
  58. Fed's Hammack: I do not see Fed policy providing restriction for economy. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 62
  59. Fed's Goolsbee: A 3% rate and 2% inflation is a loose target where we're headed. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 64
  60. Fed's Goolsbee: Tariffs and war-related price increases a challenge for the Fed - Rapid Response Podcast. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 60
  61. U.S. treasury official: bond yields to decline as inflation eases, Trump administration aims to reduce long bond yields Twitter·财经快讯 Score 64
  62. 新兴市场资金流向：债券表现优于股票 外资研报 Score 63
  63. 【广发宏观钟林楠】如何理解本轮国内利率下行 郭磊宏观茶座 Score 65