sembr.live
中

Fed Watch

PPI Below Consensus Cuts September Hike Odds to ~One-Third and Unprices 2026 Tightening, but the 30-Year Still Clears at a 25-Year-High Yield as Real Yields Near 18-Year Peaks — Front-End Easing vs Long-End Real-Rate Split

A second straight soft inflation print — July PPI below expectations on top of an in-line CPI — has cut September hike odds to roughly one-third and unpriced a full 2026 hike while taking stocks to a record, yet the 30-year auction still cleared at a 25-year-high yield and 30-year real yields sit near 18-year peaks: a dovish front-end repricing running into a real-rate/supply wall .

61 sources ~47 min

0. Weekly Arc

The post-payrolls dovish repricing has now survived two soft inflation prints and deepened: September hike odds have fallen from last week’s ~50% coin flip to roughly one-third, and 2026 tightening is no longer fully priced. Yet the long end has refused to cooperate — the 30-year auction cleared at a quarter-century-high yield while the front end rallied, and 30-year real yields sit near 18-year peaks. The regime is a split: a front-end easing trade priced for growth-driven negative correlation versus a long-end real-rate/supply wall that keeps long nominal bonds from hedging equity beta.

1. Policy Narrative & Expectations

The net change over the past ~24h is a decisive dovish deepening of rate-path pricing, driven by below-consensus July PPI layering onto the in-line CPI. CME FedWatch now puts September hold odds near 65–68% (hike ~32–35%), down from 40.6% Wednesday and 55% a week ago [1][2][3]; traders cut September pricing to ~32% after the PPI [4]; December futures price ~23bp of tightening versus a fully-priced 25bp earlier in the week [5]; and markets no longer fully price any 2026 hike [6][7][8][5], with rate markets below one full hike for the year [9]. Citi, Morgan Stanley, UOB and GF all frame hold-through-2026 as the base case [10][11][12][13]. The FOMC’s internal split is now fully public — Barkin’s fragile-labor/transitory-shock case against Hammack’s act-now push — and the data have not resolved it [14][15]. Chair Warsh remains silent on guidance [16], while per CICC his framework reform points toward a “monetary-fiscal coordination” regime that raises the bar for hikes and lowers it for cuts [17].

1.1 FOMC Officials’ Remarks

  • [ESCALATED] Hawkish — Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed President, 2026 voter): reiterated her act-now demand — “I think that we need to act now because I think we need to bring inflation back down to that 2% objective faster than what a longer-term glide path would say with interest rates at this level” [16][18] — questioning whether another three or four years to reach 2% is acceptable [16], insisting policy remains insufficiently restrictive and the 2% target will not change [14], and noting she was one of three July dissenters [18][15]. Marginal shift: same campaign as prior days, now adding a financial-stability layer — significant leverage in Treasury purchases, plus private credit and a potential AI bubble, are areas she monitors [15][19][20]; “policy is not restrictive, businesses are excited to grow and borrow” [21], inflation is broad-based per her business contacts [22], and employment data contain noise [23]. Several flashes are single-source/social [20][22][24][21][25].
  • [ONGOING] Hawkish — Christopher Waller and Lisa Cook (Board Governors): both recently said they would support rate hikes unless inflation cools soon; the latest soft data suggest that cooling is unfolding [16].
  • [NEW] Neutral/swing — Tom Barkin (Richmond Fed President): the day’s most substantial new voice. “The current level of interest rates, many think, is still restrictive enough to bring inflation down” [16]; “much of the acceleration in inflation has come from shocks like higher tariffs, elevated oil prices and the artificial intelligence investment boom, factors that ‘should pass’ at some point” [16][15]; “The more the headlines are ‘inflation coming down,’ I think that keeps expectations in check” [16][26]. He calls the economy a “mystery novel” — resilient growth, strong AI investment, stable labor, yet inflation above 2% [14]; believes the labor market is not as strong as the data show and is fragile, and worries about how long lower-end consumer spending can hold up [27][28]; notes the Fed is not in forward-guidance mode [27]; calls federal debt an inflationary “wind” the Fed must navigate against [29]; and says AI investment appears immune to interest-rate levels [15]. He remains torn between the five-years-above-target framing and the two-jumps-now-slowing framing [27][30]. Many flashes are single-source/social [28][31][30][26][32][29][33][34].
  • [NEW] Dovish — Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed President): inflation readings are improving and he hopes the trend persists [35][36]; much of the impulse came from tariffs and oil, initially expected as one-time jumps [37]; the US economy remains stable and, if recent pressures can be put behind, the Fed can steer inflation back to 2% [38][39]. All flashes are single-source/social [38][39][37][36].
  • [ONGOING] Chair Kevin Warsh (listed separately): no fresh public remarks — “Warsh has remained mum about his plans, avoiding guidance of any sort” [16]; the July press-conference concerns over inflation-target commitment, credibility and reaction-function clarity persist [40]. His ambiguity itself is now a named market driver — long-dated Treasuries are in turmoil [41] — and his framework reform is the key institutional story (§1.2) [17].

1.2 Policy Signals & Institutional Communication

  • [NEW] Citi Global Macro Strategy: the Fed stays on hold in September, October and through year-end — probably no hike before December, given the benign July CPI/PPI, soft labor data, no new hawkish data, and an October FOMC near the midterms; underpins a bearish USD view, a buy-the-dip gold stance (3-month target $4,500/oz, base case $5,000 over 6–12 months), and an EM-carry rotation from BRL to ZAR [10].
  • [NEW] Morgan Stanley global briefing: the Fed holds at 3.625% for the rest of 2026 as cooling US inflation and labor data reduce overheating risk; simultaneously it forecasts ECB and BOJ hikes, an earlier RBI cycle, and the BOE on hold [11].
  • [NEW] UOB: keeps its base case of no Fed move through 2026, then two 25bp cuts in 2027 to a 3.25% terminal rate, with risks tilted slightly to the upside on geopolitics/energy [12].
  • [NEW] CICC framework analysis (structural signal): Warsh’s reform via five working groups amounts to a new “monetary-fiscal coordination”: the Fed passively expands its balance sheet in step with fiscal and bank demand, shifting assets from long-duration Treasuries/MBS toward short bills and bank-credit tools, turning liquidity provision from QE/QT swings into steady flows, and raising the bar for hikes while lowering it for cuts. CICC also assesses reserves at “the edge of relative insufficiency” and warns that without Fed intervention or an implicit backstop, banks and private institutions alone may fail to cap long yields in risk scenarios [17].
  • [NEW] Robert Kaplan (Goldman Sachs, former Dallas Fed president): the July hold was “absolutely” right; policymakers should keep their options open until September because rigid forward guidance is counterproductive with complex inflation drivers [42]; separately, a former Fed official now a Goldman vice-chairman backs the sidelines and calls on Warsh to “explain” himself [6].
  • [ONGOING] Political layer: Trump continues to demand much lower rates and blames Warsh’s “hostile” colleagues for blocking cuts [16].
  • [NEW] Calendar: the next FOMC meeting is September 15–16; the Fed is expected to wait for the late-August/early-September round of inflation reports before deciding [1], with another CPI, PPI and jobs report all due before the meeting [43].
  • [NEW] GDS Wealth Management (via Gelonghui): the Fed is very likely to hold through year-end since curbing inflation depends on resolving the Middle East situation or reducing Strait-of-Hormuz dependence — beyond the Fed’s influence [44].

2. Key Data & Market Read

  • [NEW] July PPI — below expectations: headline producer prices were unexpectedly flat m/m versus the expected rise, and core also came in below consensus, with the annual rate falling from June [16][1][18]. Market read: a second benign inflation signal — Wells Fargo called it “friendly” [18], traders cut September hike odds from 38% to 32% [4], and El-Erian put the September implied probability around one-third (single source) [45]. PCE-related PPI components were mixed — portfolio-management fees and hospital outpatient care hot, physician/inpatient mild [43].
  • [ONGOING] July CPI — in line (released 8/12): consumer prices barely rose m/m after falling in June; core annual CPI is moving closer to the Fed’s 2% target, and adjusted for missing OER months core is at a multi-year low [16][46][10][1]. Market read: reinforced the “no hike needed” narrative formed after the weak payrolls [1]; the market reaction was modest [47].
  • [ESCALATED] September/2026 repricing — a cluster, not a point: CME FedWatch hold odds ~65–68% with hike odds ~32–35%, down from 40.6% Wednesday and 55% a week ago [1][2][3]; traders at ~32% after PPI [4]; September implied below 40% [5]; December futures ~23bp versus a fully-priced 25bp earlier in the week [5]; markets no longer fully price a 2026 hike [6][7][8][5]; rate markets price less than one hike for the rest of the year [9]. Note the consistency trap: CME’s aggregated probability of a higher policy rate by end-2026 is still above 90% [16] — the market prices a probable hike, just not a full 25bp in size.
  • [NEW] Core PCE preview (Aug 26 release): Wall Street economists project core PCE roughly +0.2% m/m [18]; Citi’s Veronica Clark sees July core PCE easing to ~3.2% y/y with a risk it holds at 3.3% [18]; the Cleveland Fed nowcasts core PCE ~3.3% and headline ~3.65–3.69%, about 0.8pp above core CPI — the data basis for the Fed’s “inflation above target” messaging even as CPI falls [13].
  • [NEW] Narrative impact: two consecutive soft prints deepen the market’s hold case but do not resolve the FOMC’s public hike-vs-hold split [14][15]; the PPI/CPI survey windows miss the late-July oil spike, which will surface in August energy components — a named risk to the disinflation narrative [1][13]; First American’s Odeta Kushi cautions the “hawkish bar has been raised” but the Fed “isn’t off the hook just yet” [48]. August jobs and inflation data are the key inputs before September 15–16 [43][13].

3. Financial-Conditions Signals

  • [NEW] Financial conditions: the Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index has loosened to its most accommodative reading since the 1990s (single source / unverified) [49].
  • [ESCALATED] Long-end auction: the Treasury sold 30-year debt at its highest yield in 25 years [50] — a $25bn sale flagged as potentially the tenor’s richest since 2001 [18][5] — while the 30-year yield had fallen ~8bp to ~5.18% ahead of the offer, from near 5.3% after the July FOMC [18][5]; the broader Treasury rally trimmed yields by up to 9bp across maturities [7][5].
  • [NEW] Real-yield driver narrative: 30-year real yields are near 18-year highs at ~3%, UK and German 10-year real yields at decade highs, 10Y TIPS at 2.36% [51][52]; with inflation expectations broadly steady despite the Iran conflict, rising real yields — not breakevens — are pushing nominal yields higher [51]. Barclays’ Max Kitson: “there’s no reason to think they’re going away anytime soon” [51]. The Fed no longer acts as a large Treasury buyer, and investors demand rising risk compensation to absorb expanding supply [53].
  • [NEW] Supply stack: AI hyperscalers have issued almost $220bn of bonds YTD 2026 — more than double the full-year-2025 total — while the US budget deficit runs ~6% of GDP ($1.9tn) this year; July’s monthly deficit of $432.3bn was the largest since March 2021 [51][52]; central banks are no longer buying bonds [51].
  • [NEW] Credit & commodities: hyperscaler CDS spreads widened sharply over the past month, signaling a jump in AI-theme volatility [40]; diesel crack spreads are at all-time highs and US crude/product inventories at decade lows [40]; WTI has rebounded above $80/bbl amid stalled US-Iran talks, Houthi attacks and the SPR at its lowest since 1983 [13].
  • [NEW] Liquidity/reserves: per CICC, reserve levels sit at the edge of relative insufficiency; last year’s issuance wave drained reserves, widened repo spreads and forced RMP expansion; under Warsh, RMP continued while MBS was reduced and short bills added — effectively shortening Fed asset duration [17].
  • [NEW] Leverage in Treasuries: Hammack flags that a large amount of leverage is being used to buy Treasuries — an area she monitors for financial stability — alongside private credit and a possible AI bubble [15][19][20].
  • [ONGOING] Mortgage transmission: the average 30-year fixed mortgage stood at 6.74% before the latest yield drop, near its 2026 high — falling yields bring short-term consumer relief [18].
  • [ONGOING] TIPS-outperformance theme: per Fidelity’s Timmer, TIPS have outperformed nominal Treasuries since 2021 and should continue, as nominal yields look too low relative to implied inflation expectations [54] (single source).

4. Global Central-Bank Linkages

  • [ESCALATED] BOJ: BofA revises its policy-rate path to roughly quarterly 25bp hikes (Sep-2026, Dec-2026, Mar-2027, Jul-2027) to a 2% terminal rate versus 1.75% previously — explicitly more hawkish than market pricing — citing the first coordinated FX intervention since 2011 (Jul 30–31), slow transmission, and upside inflation risk; it stays constructive on JPY, recommends short CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY and long 30Y JGBs, with USD/JPY at 149 end-2026 and 145 end-2027 [55]. Reuters sources say the BOJ is set to raise as soon as September and may accelerate after [50]. Citi sees September pricing up on USD/JPY recovering above 159 and weak US jobs, with December odds above 50%, but argues the market’s ~2% pricing is too aggressive — 1.5% by Jan-2027 if the Fed holds — because the BOJ cannot hike every quarter or 50bp ahead of midterms [56]. Morgan Stanley pulls forward its call to October with September a non-negligible risk; 1.25% by Q4-2026, 1.50% terminal [11].
  • [NEW] ECB: Morgan Stanley expects a 25bp “insurance” hike to 2.50% in September followed by a pause, supported by euro-area Q2 GDP beating expectations (+0.4% q/q) and July HICP showing energy +10% y/y and services 3.3% [11].
  • [NEW] BOE: on hold until mid-2027 on weak domestic demand (Morgan Stanley) [11].
  • [NEW] RBI: Morgan Stanley pulls forward the start of India’s hiking cycle to December 2026, cumulative 75bp to 6.0% [11].
  • [ONGOING] PBoC: the Q2 2026 report (8/12) stresses “comprehensively using and timely adjusting monetary policy tools,” fueling RRR/cut expectations [57]; operational shifts — overnight reverse repos normalizing and 7-day reverse repos pausing three straight days — signal a move toward a price-based framework and a policy-rate anchor switch; near-term rate-cut probability is low with incremental measures possibly around Q4 [58]; the PBoC judges major overseas central-bank adjustments will be relatively moderate with limited spillover [57][59]; Galaxy Securities expects H2 policy to prioritize domestic growth with BOP/exchange-rate stability not constraining easing [57].
  • [NEW] Divergence trade: Citi cites G9 divergence — RBA and BOJ potentially hiking while the Fed holds — as support for a short-USD stance, and rotates the EM-carry basket from BRL to ZAR ahead of Brazil’s election [10].

5. Asset Implications

This section is inference — anchored to the facts above.

QuadrantCurrent probability tiltKey asset implicationAnchoring narrative
Growth↑ + Inflation↑FallingBack-to-back soft inflation plus an oil pullback cool the overheating bid, but record diesel cracks, decade-low inventories, an ~6%-of-GDP deficit and AI-capex demand keep a reflation residual alive; commodities/TIPS are the cleaner expression§2 / §3
Growth↑ + Inflation↓RisingThe Goldilocks trade is live: record S&P close, JPMorgan raised earnings forecasts, EM equities heading for a ~3% weekly gain, front-end rates rallying on no-hike pricing; the long end is the named constraint§2 / §3
Growth↓ + Inflation↑Rising (tail)The stagflation pair sits under the surface: 30-year real yields near 18-year highs, a 25-year-high 30-year auction yield, oil back above $80 with the SPR at 1983 lows; gold hedges, equities bear the real-yield risk per Jefferies’ TIPS>2% history§3 / §6
Growth↓ + Inflation↓RisingThe dominant read — Citi, Morgan Stanley, UOB, GF and Changjiang all frame hold-through-2026; less than one hike priced; front-end/belly duration and gold are the expressions§1.2 / §2

Stock-bond correlation call: the correlation structure is split by curve segment. The front end is growth-driven — rates fell on easing expectations while stocks hit records and credit conditions loosened to 1990s-level accommodation, restoring the negative-correlation format in which bonds hedge equities in the 2s–5s sector. The long end remains real-rate/supply-driven — 30-year real yields near 3%, the 30-year auction at a quarter-century-high yield, and a >90% probability of at least one hike by year-end all keep long nominal bonds in a positive-correlation format with equities: both are vulnerable to a hawkish data surprise or a renewed supply premium. This is the regime’s defining asymmetry: growth news is easing (good for stocks and short bonds together), while fiscal/AI-supply news is inflationary for real yields (bad for long bonds). For risk parity, the hedge works at the front end, not the long end.

Risk-budget implication: Overweight gold — the rare two-sided hedge in the split regime, with Citi’s buy-the-dip stance (3-month $4,500; 6–12-month base $5,000) and the +7% weekly move confirming momentum while the stagflation tail stays live. Overweight front-end/belly duration and TIPS — nominal yields look too low relative to implied inflation per Timmer’s TIPS-vs-nominal framework, and the 10Y TIPS at 2.36% is Jefferies’ preferred equity-risk gauge. Underweight US long-end nominal duration until real yields peak — King’s choke-point mechanism, Barclays’ “no reason they’re going away,” and the $220bn AI-issuance/deficit supply stack all argue against fighting the real-rate bid. Express the BOJ divergence via JPY longs and long 30Y JGBs (BofA’s path), which monetizes the Fed-hold/BOJ-hike spread. In credit, avoid AI-hyperscaler CDS beta and prefer high-quality yield per Jefferies’ screen (software, financials, discretionary retail historically outperform). In EM, carry via ZAR over BRL, with EM FX carry premium negatively correlated to macro equity risk.

6. Contrarian & Tail Risks

  • Consensus fragility — the hold-through-year trade is now crowded: Citi, Morgan Stanley, UOB, GF and Changjiang all sit on hold-2026, but CME still shows >90% odds of at least one hike by December, Hammack’s act-now dissent is on record, CFRA’s Stovall warns that new Fed chairs historically hike first, and First American cautions the Fed “isn’t off the hook.” The falsifiable test is the August CPI — which will capture the late-July oil spike the July surveys missed; a hot print re-inflates the September premium, and Warsh’s reliance on market pricing could amplify the volatility either way.
  • Real-yield choke: King expects real yields to keep rising until they choke off the very borrowing driving them; Bhatia calls the current level a warning that growth could become threatened; Jefferies’ 30-year history shows the S&P averaging ~0.2% monthly when TIPS sit above the 70th percentile. Record equities plus a 2.36% 10Y TIPS is the tension to resolve.
  • Long-end stampede: CICC warns that without Fed intervention or an implicit backstop, banks and private institutions alone may fail to cap long yields in a risk scenario; the Bloomberg headline — “Bessent Gets a Warning on Deficits From the Bond Market” — frames the political layer, with the Fed’s retreat as a large buyer forcing investors to demand more risk compensation ahead of midterms.
  • Oil/geopolitics: WTI at $81–82, Hormuz reopening unresolved, Houthi attacks, SPR at 1983 lows; energy is a one-off level shock that does not enter the wage-price loop, but sustained high oil keeps headline inflation from converging to core and lifts expectations — the channel by which the stagflation tail (Changjiang) activates.
  • BOJ divergence and JGB fragility: Citi argues the market’s ~2% BOJ pricing is too aggressive (Fed constraint, midterm politics), while BofA’s new path is more hawkish than market pricing; BofA’s tail scenarios — USD/JPY ≥155 implies a 2.5% terminal rate, a global risk-off ends the cycle at 1.5–1.75%; Citi warns the super-long JGB sector lacks resilience if fiscal concerns lift volatility.
  • Source quality control: many Goolsbee/Barkin/Hammack flashes are single-source social posts; El-Erian’s “one-third” September figure and Bob Elliott’s “inflationary spiral doesn’t come” post are single-source social; the Financial Juice auction post carries no auction details. September odds are a band — 32–35% on CME by timestamp, ~32% traders, below 40% implied, versus 40.1% right after Wednesday’s CPI — treat as a range, not a point. The >90% end-2026 hike probability and “no longer fully priced” framing are consistent but easily misread: ~90% probability × 25bp ≈ the ~23bp in December futures.

Appendix: Additional Sources

  • [47] Changjiang Securities — July CPI in line; hold-through-2026 base case; stagflation tail risk
  • [13] GF Securities — CPI internals; Cleveland Fed PCE nowcast; oil as the key tail risk
  • [4] Gelonghui — PPI: September odds cut from 38% to 32%
  • [5] Wallstreetcn — September implied below 40%; 30-year auction highest since 2001
  • [45] El-Erian (Allianz) — PPI cools September implied probability to ~one-third
  • [43] Gelonghui — PCE-related PPI components send mixed signals
  • [3] Gelonghui — September hold probability ~65%, up from ~60% pre-PPI
  • [48] Reuters — First American: “hawkish bar raised” but Fed not off the hook
  • [60] Investing.com — US stock futures edge higher ahead of more inflation data
  • [61] Bob Elliott (Unlimited) — downside inflation surprise disappoints bond sellers at multi-decade-high yields

This report is a macro-mechanism analysis, not investment advice.

30-day review of this series 7/30 – 8/29
  • Warsh’s credibility shock became the regime’s axis. The July FOMC’s 9-3 hold and ambiguous presser triggered an EM-style credibility shock that pushed the 30-year to 2007 highs; over the following month the Chair’s no-forward-guidance experiment made every data release a “mini-FOMC,” with the Jackson Hole keynote emerging as the arbiter of whether the reaction-function premium would persist.
  • The rate path whipsawed from hike to hold and back. September hike odds collapsed from roughly two-thirds in early August, when soft payrolls and CPI/PPI flipped the debate toward labor-market tolerance, through a 27-32% trough, before a hot July PCE and hawkish FOMC minutes re-lifted pricing into a contested ~36-44% band entering Jackson Hole.
  • The long end developed its own term-premium wall. Yields rose even as front-end easing pricing deepened — the 30Y broke above 5.3%, then Bessent’s surprise doubling of buybacks bought barely two days of relief before the “Bessent put” fully unwound, confirming the move was fiscal and credibility risk, not policy-path dynamics.
  • Gold decoupled from rates into a debasement trade. Its driver shifted from real-yield opportunity cost to fiscal-credit risk, with the metal rallying through high long-end real rates to $4,700; the same dollar-credibility concern that blocked long nominal bonds became gold’s structural fuel.
  • The Treasury-Fed boundary battle blurred debt management with monetary policy. BofA’s “quasi-QE” framing, TGA-funded buybacks, and Fed RMP plans turned the long end into a political asset, with the dollar serving as the shock absorber and policy credibility itself the contested variable.

Sources61

  1. 加息警报解除？美国7月关键通胀指标符合预期，未来油价走向成关键 第一财经-资讯 Score 65
  2. 美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为65.2% 格隆汇快讯 Score 65
  3. 美联储九月维持利率不变的押注增加 格隆汇快讯 Score 63
  4. 交易员降低9月份美联储加息的压注 格隆汇快讯 Score 61
  5. 油价下跌且通胀接连报喜 交易员不再充分消化美联储年内加息的情景 华尔街见闻 Score 62
  6. 随着美国CPI和PPI数据放缓，叠加油价回落，市场不再完全定价美联储年内加息，前美联储官员、现高盛副董同步力挺美联储应观望，并喊话沃什应“解释”一下……点击... 金十-快讯 Score 63
  7. Traders Pare Bets on Fed Rate Hike This Year as Oil Prices Fall Bloomberg Score 67
  8. 交易员已不再充分消化美联储今年加息的情景 华尔街见闻 Score 63
  9. 通胀数据回落令鹰派预期降温，利率市场定价的年内加息幅度已经不足一次。但9月会议尚未定调，沃什依赖市场定价的政策倾向可能放大波动。 金十-快讯 Score 64
  10. 全球宏观策略：观点与交易思路 外资研报 Score 61
  11. 全球宏观经济简报：美联储按兵不动，欧央行与日央行加息预期升温 外资研报 Score 63
  12. 大华银行：预计美联储按兵不动至2026年底 2027年降息两次 格隆汇快讯 Score 61
  13. 【广发宏观陈嘉荔】怎么看美国7月CPI和后续通胀走势 郭磊宏观茶座 Score 61
  14. 7月通胀数据有所回落，9月加不加息？两位美联储官员释放出不同信号 澎湃新闻 Score 68
  15. 美联储官员分歧显现：巴尔金支持按兵不动，哈马克坚持加息 华尔街见闻 Score 64
  16. Cooler inflation data may force Warsh's divided Fed to hold the line on rates Reuters Score 62
  17. 中金：沃什改革下的“货币财政协同” 中金点睛 Score 65
  18. Stocks rise and interest rates fall after inflation report NBC News Score 63
  19. 美联储哈玛克：大量杠杆被用于购买国债 格隆汇快讯 Score 61
  20. Fed's Hammack: A lot of leverage is being used to buy treasuries. Treasuries is 1 area I monitor for financial stability. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 62
  21. Fed's Hammack: Policy is not restrictive, businesses are excited to grow and borrow Twitter·财经快讯 Score 60
  22. Fed's Hammack: Inflation is broad-based, not just in certain sectors, I have learned that from talking with businesses Twitter·财经快讯 Score 61
  23. 格隆汇8月13日｜美联储哈玛克：就业数据存在噪声。 格隆汇快讯 Score 61
  24. Fed's Hammack: It's important Fed is held accountable to one inflation number. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 62
  25. Fed's Hammack: My view is we need to act now. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 63
  26. Fed's Barkin: The more headline inflation continues to slow that will help keep expectations in check. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 65
  27. 美联储巴尔金：劳动力市场并不像数据显示的那样强劲 格隆汇快讯 Score 61
  28. Fed's Barkin: Do worry about how long consumer spending can hold up at the lower end. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 62
  29. Fed's Barkin: Current levels of federal debt are an inflationary "wind" that the Fed has to navigate against. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 65
  30. Fed's Barkin: Torn between focusing on the fact that inflation has been above target for more than 5 years or focusing on the fact that it jumped in t... Twitter·财经快讯 Score 64
  31. Fed's Barkin: Do believe in the theory that if you help people understand the reaction function, it helps markets do their job, but also think that gu... Twitter·财经快讯 Score 62
  32. Fed's Barkin: Consumers seem "bound and determined" to spend, and are finding ways to finance it. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 62
  33. Fed's Barkin: Much of today's inflation is from shocks that should pass Twitter·财经快讯 Score 60
  34. Fed's Barkin: Some inflation drivers, including AI, could be persistent. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 62
  35. 格隆汇8月14日｜美联储古尔斯比表示，通胀数据有所改善，希望这种趋势能够持续。 格隆汇快讯 Score 62
  36. Fed's Goolsbee: inflation readings improving, hope trend persists Twitter·财经快讯 Score 66
  37. Fed's Goolsbee: many inflation factors stemmed from tariffs and oil, initially expected as one-time jumps Twitter·财经快讯 Score 63
  38. Fed's Goolsbee: US economy remains stable Twitter·财经快讯 Score 60
  39. Fed's Goolsbee: If can put some of that behind us, can steer inflation back to 2% Twitter·财经快讯 Score 61
  40. 增长韧性与波动率上升要求更谨慎的套息交易：盈利强劲恢复风险偏好，但美联储政策不确定性增加波动 外资研报 Score 63
  41. 沃什的模糊表态正使长端美债陷入巨震。在复杂的通胀环境与巨额财政赤字压力下，部分华尔街机构正通过一些特殊策略，在押注经济降温的同时对冲政策不确定性风险。... 金十-快讯 Score 60
  42. 高盛：美联储7月按兵不动绝对正确 9月前应保持开放 格隆汇快讯 Score 60
  43. PPI为通胀放缓再添新证 中东风险却让美联储难言放松 格隆汇快讯 Score 61
  44. 交易员：美联储可能会在今年年底之前保持利率稳定 格隆汇快讯 Score 64
  45. As detailed in this Bloomberg table, US PPI inflation, an indicator of pipeline cost pressures, came in cooler than/in line with consensus forecasts. ... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 63
  46. Treasury Yields Slip as U.S. Inflation Meets Expectations WSJ Score 70
  47. 【长江宏观宋筱筱团队】通胀底色仍是缓慢回落 于博宏观札记 Score 60
  48. Macro Matters: Fed's September hike 'isn't off the table' Reuters Score 61
  49. Bloomberg's US Financial Conditions index has loosened to its most accommodative since the 1990s. This measure accounts for money market, corporate an... Twitter·财经快讯 Score 60
  50. PODCAST: Hot yields, cool prices Reuters Score 60
  51. AI-driven surge in bond yields could be next risk for markets and growth Reuters Score 61
  52. The bond market is signaling trouble ahead for stocks CNBC Score 62
  53. 在油价波动、通胀不确定、美联储不再充当大买家的背景下，投资者正要求越来越高的风险补偿来消化不断膨胀的美债。中期选举前这对特朗普政府和贝森特构成棘手挑战... 金十-快讯 Score 60
  54. For bond investors the choice is always between nominal and real, and as shown in the Real vs. Nominal Yields chart, since 2021 TIPS have outperformed... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 64
  55. 日本央行观察：加息步伐加快，终端利率上调 外资研报 Score 61
  56. 日本利率周报：市场已定价2%政策利率，超长端波动率上升风险 外资研报 Score 62
  57. 货币宽松空间进一步打开，降准降息预期仍存分歧 第一财经-资讯 Score 64
  58. [国金证券]宏观经济点评：货币政策新变化 内资宏观研究 Score 64
  59. 【广发宏观钟林楠】二季度货币政策执行报告简评 郭磊宏观茶座 Score 64
  60. U.S. STOCK FUTURES EDGE HIGHER WITH MORE INFLATION DATA AHEAD $DIA $SPY $QQQ $VIXY Twitter·财经快讯 Score 61
  61. Another downside inflation surprise today. All those folks itching to sell bonds at multi-decade highs in yields are gonna be disappointed when the in... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 63