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FOMC Hawkish Hold Backfires: 30Y Yield at 19-Year High, Warsh's Dovish Tone Triggers Steepening; Three Dissents Signal Internal Fragility; Oil and AI Concerns Compound Risk

The FOMC delivered a "hawkish hold" (9-3 vote, three dissents for a hike) as expected , but Chair Warsh's dovish press conference — downplaying CPI, welcoming market-driven tightening, and avoiding forward guidance — backfired spectacularly, sending the 30-year Treasury yield to a 19-year high of 5.238% and the Dow down 2.19% ; the curve steepened violently as short-dated yields fell and long-dated yields surged on inflation-compensation repricing and Fed-credibility concerns ; the three dissents (Logan, Hammack, Kashkari) are the most since 2016 ; Brent crude briefly spiked 8% to $90 on renewed Iran tensions ; and the AI capex narrative faces a confidence test from hyperscaler earnings .

173 sources ~70 min

0. Weekly Arc

The week opened with the July 28–29 FOMC meeting as the most binary in years — a 35–38% market-implied July hike probability vs. a unanimous economist consensus for a hold, reflecting the extreme uncertainty of Warsh’s no-forward-guidance regime. The outcome — a 9-3 hold with 3 hawkish dissents — was “expected but not.” The real shock was the press conference: Warsh downplayed the soft June CPI, embraced the bond-market selloff as a substitute for rate hikes, and offered no reaction-function clarity. The market repriced violently: short-end yields fell (rate-hike bets unwound), long-end yields surged to 5.238% (19-year high) on inflation-compensation and term-premium repricing, equities sold off (Dow −2.19%), and the USD weakened. The arc closes with maximum uncertainty about Warsh’s strategy — a dovish hold that triggered a hawkish market reaction.

Synthesized from history and today’s articles; no [N] in this section.

1. Policy Narrative & Expectations

The net change over the past ~24h is a violent repricing of the rate path and the Fed’s reaction function after the July FOMC meeting — the hold was delivered as expected (9-3), but Chair Warsh’s press conference was surprisingly dovish, downplaying the June CPI, welcoming the bond-market-driven tightening, and avoiding any forward guidance [1][2][3]. The market took the combination of a divided committee (3 dissents for a hike) and a chair signaling no urgency as a negative: a “hawkish hold” that raises uncertainty about future policy direction [4]. Futures traders reduced September hike probability to ~53–57% (from 80%+ pre-meeting) [4][5][6]. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to remain on hold for the rest of 2026 [1]. Deutsche Bank maintains its 50bp hike call (Sep + Dec) [7][8]. Citi (Citi) now expects three 25bp rate cuts (Oct, Dec 2026, Jan 2027) — the most dovish institutional call [9][3]. J.P. Morgan pulled forward its next-hike forecast from H2 2027 to December 2026 [10].

1.1 FOMC Officials’ Remarks

  • [NEW] Dovish — Kevin Warsh (Chair): Warsh delivered a notably dovish press conference. He repeatedly said the rise in market rates has already tightened financial conditions, implying less need for rate hikes [1][11][12][3]. He downplayed the June CPI’s significance, saying it had “not much” impact on the decision [13][2]. He said high policy rates are “perhaps the dominant but not the only solution” to inflation [2]. He signaled the Fed will look at a broader set of inflation indicators [3] and hinted that a task force might recommend changing the target index after January [10][3][14]. He refused to call the hold a “pause,” instead calling it a “rigorous review” [15][16][17][18]. He said the economy shows “impressive resilience” [19][20] and the bond market seems to be saying the economy is “strong and steady” [21]. He committed to holding press conferences through year-end [19][22]. Marginal shift vs prior history: This is a dramatic dovish reversal from his prior “zero tolerance” and hawkish congressional testimony tone — he moved from the hawkish end of the spectrum toward neutral/dovish.

  • [NEW] Hawkish dissents — Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed), Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed), Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed): All three dissented from the decision to hold rates steady, each voting for a 25bp hike [13][5][23][17][24][25][26]. The three dissents are the most for any meeting since 2016 [27][28][14]. Logan, who has previously said rates should be “modestly” higher [29], and Hammack and Kashkari are the most hawkish institutional signals of the cycle. Marginal shift vs prior history: These three officials have been flagged as potential dissenters for weeks; the fact that they actually dissented is an escalation of the hawkish internal pressure.

  • [NEW] Neutral/swing — Vice Chair Jefferson & Governor Cook: Both supported the hold and advocated patience to assess the situation [30][3]. All permanent voting members (Board governors + NY Fed’s Williams) voted for the hold, while the three dissents came from regional bank presidents [3].

1.2 Policy Signals & Institutional Communication

  • [NEW] FOMC decision — 9-3 vote to hold at 3.50%-3.75%, five consecutive holds: The FOMC voted 9-3 to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% [31][13][7][15][32][19]. The statement was nearly unchanged from June, noting “solid” economic expansion, steady job growth, and inflation “elevated” partly due to supply shocks in energy [7][32][5][16][24][33]. Three regional Fed presidents (Logan, Hammack, Kashkari) dissented, favoring a 25bp hike [13][5][23][17][24][25][26].

  • [NEW] Warsh abandons forward guidance — statement dramatically shortened: In line with Warsh’s stated preference, the FOMC statement was shortened dramatically, removing all forward-guidance language [34][35][12][27][36]. This is a structural regime shift: the Fed no longer provides explicit guidance on the future rate path [4][37][38][39][40].

  • [NEW] CME FedWatch — September hike probability falls to ~56-63%: After the decision and press conference, the market-implied probability of a 25bp September hike dropped to about 56-63%, down from 80%+ before the meeting [5][17][6][41]. The December hike probability remains high at 81.2% [17]. Goldman Sachs notes the bond market now prices a 60% September hike probability [1][11].

  • [NEW] Goldman Sachs — expects hold through end-2026, flagging dovish Warsh: Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to remain on hold for the rest of 2026 [1]. The bank notes that Warsh’s dovish press conference signaled no urgency to act, and the bond market’s dovish reaction (short rates down, long rates up on breakeven repricing) reflects this [1][42].

  • [NEW] Deutsche Bank — maintains Sep + Dec 25bp hike call: Deutsche Bank expects the Fed to deliver 50bp of hikes in the remaining 2026 (Sep and Dec) [7][8]. They argue the market reaction — long-end yields up, forward real yields down — suggests a lack of confidence in an imminent return to price stability, which the FOMC will find unsettling [8].

  • [NEW] J.P. Morgan — pulls forward next-hike forecast to December 2026 from H2 2027: J.P. Morgan moved its forecast for the next rate hike from H2 2027 to December 2026, citing Warsh’s vague remarks that raised credibility concerns and may force the committee to act more aggressively [10]. They also flag the risk of a September hike if inflation reaccelerates [10].

  • [NEW] Citi — expects three 25bp rate cuts starting in October 2026: In a direct challenge to the hawkish market pricing, Citi now expects the Fed to cut rates by 25bp each in October, December 2026, and January 2027 [9][3]. Citi argues that Warsh’s dovish press conference — looking at broader inflation indicators and implying the market has done the tightening — reduces the need for rate hikes and opens the door for cuts [2][3].

  • [NEW] Barclays — expects hold through end-2027: Barclays expects the FOMC to keep rates in the current range through end-2027 [43].

  • [NEW] Fed announces communication review panel: Warsh’s communication review panel will include University of Washington professor Peter Fisher and former BOE official Mervyn King [44].

2. Key Data & Market Read

  • [NEW] July consumer confidence — 90.8, down from 92.2: The Conference Board reported the July consumer confidence index fell to 90.8, extending the downtrend that began in late 2021 [31]. The Conference Board’s Dana Peterson attributed the weakness to oil and food price increases [31]. Market read: Adds to the narrative of a slowing consumer, consistent with the “growth down” scenario. Narrative impact: Supports the hold camp’s view that the economy is cooling, but the oil-price driver suggests inflation pressure persists.

  • [NEW] June PCE expectations — Dow Jones estimates headline 3.7% y/y, core 3.3% y/y: The June PCE report (due July 30) is expected to show headline inflation at 3.7% y/y and core at 3.3% y/y, according to a Dow Jones estimate [7]. Market read: If in line, this keeps inflation well above the 2% target and reinforces the hawks’ argument. Narrative impact: The data is backward-looking and will be overtaken by the July CPI (which captures the oil spike), limiting its marginal impact.

  • [ONGOING] May PCE — 4.1% y/y: May PCE inflation was 4.1% year-over-year [45]. The Fed’s preferred measure is still more than double the target.

  • [ONGOING] June CPI — 3.5% y/y (below expectations), core 2.6% y/y: Headline CPI rose 3.5% y/y, core CPI at 2.6% y/y, both below expectations [4][27]. Market read: A dovish data point, but Warsh explicitly downplayed its significance (“not much” impact) [13][2]. Narrative impact: Temporarily eased inflation fears, but the oil surge in July (Brent back to $90+) will complicate the next CPI print.

  • [ONGOING] June nonfarm payrolls — 57,000 (below expectations): The June payrolls report showed weak hiring, consistent with a cooling labor market [31][46]. Narrative impact: Supports the hold/dovish camp but has been overtaken by the FOMC outcome.

No new major data release in the past 24h (the June PCE and Q2 GDP are due July 30, after the FOMC meeting).

3. Financial-Conditions Signals

  • [NEW] Dollar & rates — 30-year yield at 5.238% (19-year high), curve steepens violently: The 30-year Treasury yield surged to 5.238% on July 30, the highest level since 2007 [47][16][17][48]. The 2-year yield fell 7bp to 4.2171%, producing a dramatic steepening of the yield curve [13][15][16][27]. The 10-year yield rose to about 4.68-4.70% [33][46]. This is a “hawkish” market reaction to a “dovish” hold: long-end yields repriced higher on inflation-compensation concerns and term-premium repricing, while short-end yields fell as immediate hike bets were unwound [1][2][8].

  • [NEW] Dollar & rates — Warsh’s “market-driven tightening” narrative: Warsh explicitly cited the rise in nominal and real Treasury yields over the past six weeks as evidence that financial conditions have tightened without a rate hike [1][11][35][12][3][49][33]. He argued this substitutes for official Fed tightening [11][12]. The risk is that this narrative itself becomes a self-referential loop: markets push up yields fearing Fed inaction; the Fed sees higher yields and holds off; inflation expectations re-anchor at a higher level [13][4][8][50].

  • [NEW] Dollar & rates — inflation breakevens rise, forward real yields fall: The 5-year 5-year forward inflation breakeven rose about 4bp to 2.41% after the press conference [2][8]. Nomura notes that breakeven inflation expectations jumped after the meeting [51]. While long-term nominal yields rose, forward real yields gave back most of their post-June FOMC gains [8], indicating that the market is repricing inflation risk, not real growth expectations. Citi notes the 2-year breakeven stands at 2.21% [2].

  • [NEW] Dollar — USD weakens, DXY falls 0.31-0.62%: The dollar index fell 0.31% to 101.11 after the decision [52][33]. The USD weakened as the dovish hold unwound the “hawkish Warsh” premium [53][30]. Gold rallied $60+ to briefly touch $4,100 [15][16][33]. ING had predicted this outcome — that a hold would trigger a dollar selloff and a re-correlation with falling oil prices [54][55].

  • [NEW] Credit — IG spreads widen, market dysfunction highest in ~3 years: Investment-grade credit spreads widened over the past few weeks on concerns about the supply of new bonds to finance the AI buildout [56]. The US high-grade corporate bond market saw its highest level of dysfunction in nearly three years in July 2026 [56]. Auto loan rates remain elevated (new car 7%, used 10.5%) and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.76% (near one-year high) [57].

No major update on liquidity or SLOOS in the past 24h.

4. Global Central-Bank Linkages

  • [NEW] BOJ — two-day meeting ends July 30, focus on growth and inflation outlook: Forex markets are focused on the BOJ’s two-day meeting ending July 30, with the key question being whether it upgrades its growth outlook and continues to view inflation risks as skewed to the upside [58].

  • [NEW] BOE — expected to hold on July 30: The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its July 30 decision, weighing the impact of the Iran war on inflation [59].

No global central-bank linkage reporting on the ECB or PBoC in the past 24h.

5. Asset Implications

This section is inference — no [N]. Anchored to the facts above.

QuadrantCurrent probability tiltKey asset implicationAnchoring narrative
Growth↑ + Inflation↑FallingThe FOMC’s dovish hold and Warsh’s “market-driven tightening” narrative have partially unwound the stagflation trade: short-end yields fell (immediate hike bets unwound), but long-end yields surged to 5.238% on inflation-compensation repricing and term premium; gold rallied to $4,100 on the weaker USD; Brent crude briefly spiked 8% to $90 on renewed Iran tensions, keeping the energy tail alive; commodities↑ TIPS↑ nominal long bonds↓, but the curve steepening is extreme.§1 (Hold 9-3, Warsh dovish, Sep hike prob 56-63%); §1.2 (GS hold 2026, DB 50bp hike, Citi 75bp cuts); §2 (CPI 3.5% but downplayed; consumer confidence 90.8); §3 (30y 5.238%, 2y 4.22%, curve steep); §35 (30y broke 5.20%)
Growth↑ + Inflation↓RisingThe Goldilocks window reopened after the FOMC: Warsh’s dovish tone, the weaker USD, and falling short-end yields create a favorable backdrop; the three dissents are from regional bank presidents, not core FOMC members [43][3], suggesting the hawkish pressure may be overstated; Citi’s call for three 2026-27 cuts [9][3] is the most dovish institutional call; JPMorgan says fewer rate hikes than the market expects [60]; the 30-year yield at 5.238% is the fiscal/AI supply story, not inflation.§1 (Warsh dovish, GS hold 2026, Citi 3 cuts); §1.2 (Barclays hold 2027, GS hold 2026); §2 (CPI 3.5%, consumer confidence 90.8); §3 (USD weak, gold to $4,100); §45 (Citi: cuts in Oct, Dec, Jan)
Growth↓ + Inflation↑FallingStagflation tail has been partially unwound but not eliminated: the three dissents (Logan, Hammack, Kashkari) for a hike signal that the committee’s hawkish faction sees inflation risk as the dominant concern; Brent crude at $90+ and the unresolved Strait of Hormuz disruption keep the energy tail alive; gold’s rally to $4,100 and the weaker USD suggest the market is pricing a “demand shock” rather than “supply shock” scenario; the AI capex environment faces a confidence test from hyperscaler earnings [15][61].§1.1 (3 dissents for hike); §1.2 (DB 50bp hike, JP Morgan Dec hike); §2 (Brent $90, oil at $100 briefly); §3 (30y 5.238%, gold $4,100); §25 (AI foundation model shows sign of commoditization)
Growth↓ + Inflation↓FallingLong-duration bonds would rally on a recession + disinflation scenario, but the market is doing the opposite — the 30-year at 5.238% is the highest since 2007, driven by fiscal/AI supply and inflation-compensation repricing, not a flight to safety; IG bond market dysfunction [56] suggests liquidity stress, not a “quality” bid; the consumer confidence drop to 90.8 [31] and weak payrolls [31] provide a growth-concern tail, but it’s not yet priced in the bond market.§2 (consumer confidence 90.8, payrolls 57K); §3 (30y 5.238%, IG dysfunction); §1.2 (Barclays hold 2027); §142 (mortgage rates 6.76%, auto loans 7-10.5%)

Stock-bond correlation call: The regime is leaning toward negative correlation (growth-driven) but with a high risk of flipping back to positive. Three forces support negative correlation: (1) the FOMC delivered a hold — the immediate rate-shock risk is removed; (2) the two-year yield fell 7bp (bond prices rose at the short end) while equities fell (higher long-end yields weighing on risk assets) — a classic negative-correlation signal; (3) Warsh’s dovish tone and embrace of market-driven tightening suggest the Fed is not forced into a hike by the hawkish dissenters — reducing the risk of a “rates up = equities down” regime. However, two forces challenge this: (1) the 30-year yield at 5.238% is a structural supply-driven move that hits both bonds (higher yields) and equities (higher discount rate) — the long-end selloff is the most equity-unfriendly form of a bear market; (2) the three dissents create a “fractured committee” narrative that could revive at any moment if inflation data prints hot. The safest characterization: regime transition from positive to negative, but the transition is incomplete and the 30-year yield’s trajectory is the swing factor. A 30-year yield above 5.25% would likely re-establish positive correlation; a pullback below 5% would consolidate negative correlation.

Risk-budget implication:

  • Overweight front-end duration (2-year) — the dovish hold and the unwinding of the July hike premium have pushed the 2-year yield down 7bp to 4.22% [13][15]. Citi recommends rolling the July receiver position to October [2]. The front-end repricing is incomplete: the market still prices a ~60% September hike probability [1][11][6], and if Warsh’s dovish stance holds, the entire September premium could unwind. A 2-year receiver position with a target of 4.0% is the cleanest expression of the “Warsh is dovish” trade.
  • Overweight the 7s30s curve steeping — Citi’s core trade is a 5s30s steepener [2], and the market delivered exactly that: 2s fell, 30s surged to 5.238%. The steepening is being driven by inflation-compensation and term-premium repricing, not growth optimism. Continue to hold steepeners, but the 5.238% level on the 30-year may attract pension demand (Citi notes pension demand may return near 5.3%) [2].
  • Underweight long-end nominal duration (10y+) — the 30-year at 5.238% is at a 19-year high [47][16], and the driver is inflation-compensation and term premium, not growth. The “market-driven tightening” narrative that Warsh has endorsed is a self-referential loop that keeps long-end yields elevated. Schroders is increasing bearish Treasury positions [62]. Citi sees no support until the 30-year reaches 5.2-5.3% [2].
  • Overweight gold tactically — gold rallied from $4,040 to $4,100 on the weaker USD and the removal of the immediate hike threat [15][16][33]. GS lowered its end-2026 gold target from $5,400 to $4,900 [43], and gold is now at ~$4,043 [43]. The dovish hold, weaker USD, and geopolitical risk (Brent at $90+) create a favorable near-term setup. However, GS’s tactical caution is noted: a hawkish September surprise could erode gold’s hedging demand [43].
  • Underweight equity beta tactically — the Dow fell 2.19%, S&P 500 fell 1.52%, and Nasdaq fell 1.74% [13][15][5][16]. The market is caught between a dovish Fed (lower rates, good for equities) and a surging long-end yield (higher discount rate, bad for equities). The VIX rose above 20 [13]. Wait for the market to digest the FOMC and the hyperscaler earnings before adding beta. J.P. Morgan’s Bob Michele notes the three dissents signal tightening pressure, suggesting near-term upward pressure on rates [63].

6. Contrarian & Tail Risks

  • Consensus fragility — the “Warsh is dovish” narrative is untested at this scale: Warsh’s press conference was the most dovish signal from a Fed chair in the post-COVID cycle — downplaying CPI, welcoming market tightening, avoiding guidance. The bond market’s reaction — long-end yields surging to 5.238% — suggests the market does not fully buy it. If Warsh is forced to walk back this dovishness at the Jackson Hole symposium in August (which he said he “hasn’t started thinking about” yet [19]), the entire “Warsh is dovish” trade collapses. This is the single largest consensus fragility in the current configuration.

  • Consensus fragility — the three dissents are more important than Warsh’s tone: Jim Bianco emphasizes that the dissents are “the most important signal” from the meeting [63][64]. The three regional Fed presidents who voted for a hike (Logan, Hammack, Kashkari) are not core FOMC members — all permanent voting members (Board governors + NY Fed) voted for the hold [3]. But the dissents create a “shadow dot plot” that signals the committee is fracturing [13][64]. If any of the permanent members (Jefferson, Cook, Waller) join the hawkish faction at the September meeting, the entire rate path repricing is violent.

  • Consensus fragility — the “market-driven tightening” narrative is a self-referential loop that could break in either direction: Warsh’s argument that the bond market’s yield rise substitutes for a rate hike is clever but fragile. If the bond market believes the Fed is comfortable with higher yields (because it reduces the need for hikes), then the yield rise becomes self-limiting — the Fed won’t hike, so why hold a long position? But if the bond market re-interprets the yield rise as a symptom of lost credibility — the market is doing the Fed’s job because the Fed won’t — then the yield rise becomes self-reinforcing, and term premium explodes. The difference between the two scenarios is whether the market believes the Fed can still deliver price stability.

  • Consensus fragility — the AI capex confidence test is the broader risk: Jefferies’ trading desk warned that “the biggest risk is a loss of confidence in the AI capex model itself” [61]. The FOMC meeting coincided with hyperscaler earnings, and the market is already pricing a “legitimate question” about the ROI of the AI buildout [15]. If the AI narrative cracks — as Miran hypothesizes that the rise in real rates is about declining tech free cash flow, not fiscal or monetary policy [65] — then the equity selloff deepens and the flight to safety is disrupted (bonds also sell off on growth concerns).

  • Consensus fragility — Citi’s three-cut call vs. the market’s two-hike pricing: Citi now expects 75bp of rate cuts starting in October [9][3], directly opposite DB’s 50bp of hikes [8] and the market’s ~60% September hike probability [1][11]. The gap between Citi’s call and the consensus is ~125bp. If inflation data (especially July CPI, due mid-August) prints soft — as Citi expects, with core CPI falling to 2.3% [3] — then Citi is right and the entire hawkish pricing collapses. If oil at $90+ feeds through to core inflation, the consensus reprices for a September hike, and Citi is wrong.

  • Second-order — the self-referential tightening loop: markets push up yields fearing Fed inaction; the Fed sees yields higher and holds off; inflation expectations re-anchor at a higher level. This is the “reflexivity” risk flagged by multiple sources [13][4]. The bond market’s inflation-compensation repricing to 2.41% [2] suggests the market is slowly re-anchoring inflation expectations at a level above 2%. If this continues for another 3-6 months, the Fed will eventually be forced to validate the market fears with an actual hike — which is the worst outcome for both bonds and equities.

  • Second-order — the fiscal/AI supply demand imbalance is structural, not cyclical: El-Erian flags the two-way causality between rising bond market funding needs (tech capex + government deficits) and high rates [66]. IG credit market dysfunction at a 3-year peak [56] and the 30-year at 5.238% are symptoms of this structural mismatch. Warsh’s “market-driven tightening” narrative is convenient for a Fed that wants to avoid hiking into midterm elections, but it cannot resolve the underlying supply-demand imbalance.

  • Source quality control: The FOMC statement [31][13][7][15][24] is official — authoritative. The CME FedWatch data [1][11][6][41] is primary exchange data. The Warsh press conference transcripts/quotes are drawn from multiple primary and secondary sources [43][13][1][15][2][19][3][67] — the dovish characterization is consistent across all sources. The Citi analysis [9][2][53][3] is primary institutional research. The GS analysis [1][42] is primary institutional research. The DB analysis [8] is primary. The Barclays analysis [43][68] is primary. The JPM analysis [60][10] is primary. The El-Erian analysis [48][66] is single-source/social-unverified but from a respected source. The Miran hypothesis [65] is single-source and speculative. The @deerpointmacro analysis [69][70][71] is single-source. The Bianco analysis [63][64][72][73] is single-source but from a well-respected market analyst.

Appendix: Additional Sources

  • [74] WSJ — Fed left rates unchanged at Warsh’s second meeting
  • [75] WSJ — Stock futures steady; Treasury yields rise after Warsh; 30Y at 19-year highs
  • [76] WSJ — Markets stabilized after Fed Day sell-off
  • [77] TS Lombard — Market pricing of the Fed reaction function
  • [78] Steno Research — The market’s reaction to the FOMC
  • [79] TS Lombard — 2-year yield misses amplitude of historical rate cycles
  • [62] Bloomberg — Schroders increasing bearish Treasury positions
  • [80] 金十快讯 — Market doubts Fed’s inflation commitment; three dissents
  • [81] 金十数据 — Long-end yields at 19-year highs
  • [37] 格隆汇 — T. Rowe Price: no forward guidance becomes new normal
  • [82] Nick Timiraos — Warsh press conference generated unusual market reaction
  • [83] 华尔街见闻 — Fed on hold; ready to hike if inflation persists
  • [5] CBS News — Fed holds with 3 dissents; Warsh signals patience
  • [58] WSJ — BOJ focus
  • [84] 申万宏源 — Rate holds likely in near term; financial conditions tighten
  • [51] Nomura — Post-FOMC breakeven jump
  • [85] 金十数据 — Three dissents, Warsh open division
  • [86] Morgan Stanley — Split FOMC, policy path depends on data
  • [30] HSBC — Moderate USD weakness post-FOMC
  • [87] Bloomberg — Asian stocks to fall, long-end yields at 2-decade high
  • [88] Jack Farley — Broadcast announcement
  • [89] WSJ — Warsh settling into chairmanship
  • [90] WSJ — Warsh suggests near-term rate increase not needed
  • [20] Bloomberg — Stocks lower, bond yields higher
  • [91] Steno Research — Biggest disconnect between inflation expectations and Fed rhetoric
  • [92] 格隆汇 — Hawkish hold, macroeconomic signals unclear
  • [93] WSJ — 3 officials dissented for a hike
  • [38] Bloomberg — Slok attributes volatility to no forward guidance
  • [94] NYT — 9-3 hold, Warsh zero tolerance, market expects Sep hike
  • [95] NYT — 9-3 hold, inflation overshoot, oil war
  • [56] Bloomberg — IG spreads widen, dysfunction in corporate bond market
  • [96] Financial Juice — Stocks decline, 30-year yields rise (market wrap)
  • [97] NYT — 3 officials voted for hike, debate is when not whether
  • [98] 格隆汇 — Warsh: less guidance lets central bank listen to markets
  • [18] 格隆汇 — Warsh rejects ‘pause’ label
  • [99] Jack Farley — Earnings discussion
  • [100] WSJ — 3 FOMC members dissented
  • [101] WSJ — Warsh cautious tone, rates already up
  • [49] 格隆汇 — Warsh: market prices not saying all clear
  • [102] Financial Juice — Warsh: not constrained by market prices
  • [103] Financial Juice — Warsh: market prices don’t say all clear
  • [104] Fidelity Timmer — Dollar bid from expected rate hikes
  • [105] Financial Juice — Warsh: Treasury curve + dollar signal credibility
  • [106] Financial Juice — Warsh: central bankers inclined to tighten conditions
  • [107] Financial Juice — Warsh: central bankers inclined to tighten when inflation rises
  • [108] Financial Juice — Warsh: doesn’t endorse any market move
  • [109] Financial Juice — Warsh: reasonable sense of demand, inferring supply
  • [110] Financial Juice — Warsh: pause would be misinterpreted
  • [52] Reuters — FOMC held; three dissents; analysts mixed
  • [111] Financial Juice — Warsh: shocks make job tougher
  • [112] Financial Juice — Warsh: examining extent shocks broadening inflation
  • [113] Financial Juice — Warsh: understanding underlying inflation dynamics
  • [114] Financial Juice — Warsh: if inflation stays high, rates part of solution
  • [115] Financial Juice — Warsh: market prices one of many channels
  • [116] Financial Juice — Warsh: markets have a lot to decide in intervening period
  • [117] Financial Juice — Warsh: important decisions to make ahead
  • [118] Financial Juice — Warsh: rates higher than 42 days ago
  • [119] Financial Juice — Warsh: avoid impression breathlessly watching data
  • [120] Financial Juice — Warsh: recent inflation data encouraging
  • [121] Financial Juice — Warsh: the trend matters
  • [64] Bianco Research — Dissents are the new forward guidance
  • [21] Financial Juice — Warsh: bond market says economy strong and steady
  • [122] 格隆汇 — Relief rally; dissents may reflect independence
  • [123] Financial Juice — Warsh: interpreting markets is imperfect
  • [124] Financial Juice — Warsh: observing a rise in yields, trying to stay out
  • [125] Financial Juice — Warsh: markets react more directly
  • [126] Financial Juice — Warsh: discussed four topics
  • [127] Financial Juice — Warsh: trying not to interfere with market signal
  • [128] Financial Juice — Warsh: trying to get unfiltered message from markets
  • [129] Financial Juice — Warsh: discussed monetary policy tools and strategies
  • [130] Financial Juice — Warsh: price increases arising from shocks
  • [131] Financial Juice — Warsh: five years of high inflation discussed
  • [132] Financial Juice — Warsh: markets will continue to respond as they see fit
  • [133] Financial Juice — Warsh: change for the better
  • [134] Financial Juice — Warsh: less forward guidance may have influenced moves
  • [135] Financial Juice — Warsh: prices respond instantaneously to data
  • [136] Financial Juice — Warsh: some increases between meetings significant in decades
  • [137] Financial Juice — Warsh: nominal and real yields materially higher
  • [138] 华尔街见闻 — Warsh: no soft inflation target; economy resilient
  • [139] Financial Juice — Warsh speaks after decision
  • [140] Bloomberg — Traders reduce September hike bets
  • [141] Financial Juice — Live stream announcement
  • [142] WSJ — Long-end yields held gains
  • [143] Financial Juice — No-content live stream
  • [26] 格隆汇 — 3 dissents for hike; Trump calls for cuts
  • [28] 金十快讯 — 3 dissents first since 2016
  • [144] BBC — Fed held 5th consecutive time
  • [145] Bloomberg — FOMC voted 9-3
  • [67] Bloomberg — Fractured vote signals growing conviction for hike
  • [146] CBS News — Fed holds; July inflation data eased; energy risks
  • [57] CNBC — Fed holds; consumer rates high; Iran risks
  • [147] BBC — 5th hold; inflation slowing
  • [148] 新华社 — 5th hold; market expectations met
  • [149] 格隆汇 — FOMC continues ample reserves policy
  • [150] Financial Juice — Fed leaves rates unchanged
  • [151] WSJ — Fed held over objections of 3 bank presidents
  • [152] Financial Juice — Rate statement: job gains kept pace
  • [69] @deerpointmacro — 3 dissents; inflation above target
  • [153] Financial Juice — FOMC continues ample reserves policy
  • [154] Financial Juice — Productivity and capital investment strong
  • [155] Financial Juice — Economic activity expanding at solid pace
  • [156] Financial Juice — Inflation elevated relative to 2% goal
  • [157] Financial Juice — Fed meeting minutes released
  • [158] 华尔街见闻 — 3 opposed the decision (dissents)
  • [159] TimmerFidelity — Commodities accelerating; breakevens quiet
  • [65] Stephen Miran — Hypothesis: real rate rise due to tech free cash flow
  • [160] 格隆汇 — Claudia Sahm predicted hawkish statement
  • [44] UBS — Communication review panel
  • [72] Bianco Research — Fed never hiked with below 60% probability since 1994
  • [161] El-Erian — UK 10-year volatility this year
  • [66] El-Erian — Two-way causality between bond funding needs and rates
  • [70] @deerpointmacro — Gap between current yields and forward-implied yields narrows
  • [40] FT — Increased uncertainty after Warsh scrapped forward guidance
  • [162] BBC — US stocks under pressure
  • [36] Reuters — June meeting removed all forward guidance
  • [33] 开源证券 — Dow −2.19%, 10Y near 4.7%; two 2027-2028 hikes expected
  • [163] 华鑫证券 — 9-3 vote, Warsh hawkish remarks, gold $4,100
  • [50] 东吴证券 — 9-3 hold; curve steepens; gold up; USD down
  • [46] 国信证券 — 9-3 hold; 10Y 4.68%; gold $4,100; doubts about policy reaction function
  • [14] 东海证券 — 9-3 vote; curve steep; Warsh prefers PCE for now
  • [45] Reuters — 65-35% hold-or-hike split; May PCE 4.1%
  • [71] @deerpointmacro — Spread between loan yields and forward yields narrows
  • [164] 格隆汇 — USD flat pre-FOMC; GS focus on September
  • [165] CNBC — 35-65% split in Fed funds; Warsh less transparent approach tested
  • [166] 金十快讯 — TLT call options abnormal surge
  • [54] ING — Dollar correlation to oil at lowest
  • [55] Bloomberg — ING: USD to fall if hold
  • [61] CNBC — AI capex model is the biggest risk; Brent +7%
  • [73] Bianco Research — Surprise hike might fix the bond market
  • [167] 格隆汇 — Tom Lee: no surprise hike; QT may continue
  • [168] WSJ — Warsh press conference at 2:30 p.m.
  • [169] USA Today — Markets uncertain about hike or hold
  • [29] CNBC — Lorie Logan said modestly higher; 64% probability of hold
  • [170] Bloomberg — Warsh’s potential influence on rate call
  • [171] @josephwang — Non-substantive announcement
  • [172] BofA — Q2 GDP tracking at 1.5% (down from 1.7%); hard vs soft data divergence
  • [173] HSBC — 30% hike probability before FOMC; hawkish dissents limit USD downside

This report is a macro-mechanism analysis, not investment advice.

30-day review of this series 7/30 – 8/29
  • Warsh’s credibility shock became the regime’s axis. The July FOMC’s 9-3 hold and ambiguous presser triggered an EM-style credibility shock that pushed the 30-year to 2007 highs; over the following month the Chair’s no-forward-guidance experiment made every data release a “mini-FOMC,” with the Jackson Hole keynote emerging as the arbiter of whether the reaction-function premium would persist.
  • The rate path whipsawed from hike to hold and back. September hike odds collapsed from roughly two-thirds in early August, when soft payrolls and CPI/PPI flipped the debate toward labor-market tolerance, through a 27-32% trough, before a hot July PCE and hawkish FOMC minutes re-lifted pricing into a contested ~36-44% band entering Jackson Hole.
  • The long end developed its own term-premium wall. Yields rose even as front-end easing pricing deepened — the 30Y broke above 5.3%, then Bessent’s surprise doubling of buybacks bought barely two days of relief before the “Bessent put” fully unwound, confirming the move was fiscal and credibility risk, not policy-path dynamics.
  • Gold decoupled from rates into a debasement trade. Its driver shifted from real-yield opportunity cost to fiscal-credit risk, with the metal rallying through high long-end real rates to $4,700; the same dollar-credibility concern that blocked long nominal bonds became gold’s structural fuel.
  • The Treasury-Fed boundary battle blurred debt management with monetary policy. BofA’s “quasi-QE” framing, TGA-funded buybacks, and Fed RMP plans turned the long end into a political asset, with the dollar serving as the shock absorber and policy credibility itself the contested variable.

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  2. 美国利率策略：FOMC会议要点解读 外资研报 Score 67
  3. 美联储按兵不动：沃什释放鸽派信号，暗示无需加息 外资研报 Score 66
  4. Fed's 'hawkish hold' muddies path for stocks and bonds Reuters Score 64
  5. Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, but 3 officials vote for hike CBS News Score 64
  6. What a divided Fed means for investors CNBC Score 63
  7. Treasury sell-off continues after divided Fed holds interest rates steady CNBC Score 63
  8. 7月FOMC会议回顾：按兵不动胜千言 外资研报 Score 68
  9. 美联储维持利率不变后 花旗仍维持降息预测 格隆汇快讯 Score 64
  10. 难以置信！：美联储维持利率不变，新主席沃什言论引发信誉担忧 外资研报 Score 64
  11. 华尔街点评美联储决议：沃什欢迎市场代替“加息”？ 华尔街见闻 Score 67
  12. 中金：如何才能“预防式加息”？ 中金点睛 Score 66
  13. 当美联储不再安抚市场，本身就是一种紧缩 36氪 Score 66
  14. [东海证券]海外观察：2026年7月美国FOMC会议：基准情形下，美联储年内或将继续按兵不动 内资宏观研究 Score 66
  15. 十年罕见，美联储深夜投下“鹰派炸弹”，道指狂泻1153点 36氪 Score 67
  16. 十年罕见，美联储深夜投下“鹰派炸弹”，道指狂泻1153点 虎嗅 Score 66
  17. 3张反对票！美联储按兵不动，沃什如何兑现通胀承诺 第一财经-资讯 Score 65
  18. 沃什拒称美联储“按兵不动”：市场早已作出反应 格隆汇快讯 Score 63
  19. 美联储利率决议及沃什发布会要点总结 格隆汇快讯 Score 70
  20. Live Q&A: What Traders Are Telling the Fed Bloomberg Score 64
  21. Fed's Warsh: The Bond market seems to be saying the economy is strong and steady. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 65
  22. Fed's Chair Warsh: Between now and the year-end, I am committing to press conferences this year. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 63
  23. 中金：美联储按兵不动加剧市场风险 格隆汇快讯 Score 63
  24. 美国：美联储7月维持联邦基金利率不变，三名委员 dissent 支持加息25个基点 外资研报 Score 69
  25. 全文对比美联储7月会议声明有何变化 华尔街见闻 Score 65
  26. 美联储按兵不动但内部分裂加剧 声明与6月一致 格隆汇快讯 Score 64
  27. 美联储按兵不动，遭遇3张反对票、主张加息25个基点（附声明全文） 澎湃新闻 Score 66
  28. 美联储连续第五次维持利率不变。三名地区联储主席投票支持加息25个基点，是2016年以来首次出现三张方向一致的反对票。点击查看... 金十-快讯 Score 68
  29. Fed likely to keep rates on hold, but Warsh to face some strong dissension. What to watch: Live coverage CNBC Score 65
  30. 美联储按兵不动：美元小幅走弱但有望反弹 外资研报 Score 68
  31. 美联储，加不加息都难受 36氪 Score 67
  32. Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, but 3 officials vote for hike CBS News Score 64
  33. [开源证券]7月FOMC会议点评：美联储后续开启连续加息可能性不高 内资宏观研究 Score 70
  34. 中金：如何才能“预防式加息”？ 华尔街见闻 Score 67
  35. 如何才能“预防式加息”？ Kevin策略研究 Score 67
  36. Fed live: Warsh's second meeting brings uncertainty over interest rate decision Reuters Score 63
  37. 普徕仕：预期美联储继续维持利率不变，缺乏前瞻指引或导致市场波动加剧 格隆汇快讯 Score 69
  38. Apollo's Slok Says Fed's New Silence Fuels 'Yo-Yo' Bond Market Bloomberg Score 65
  39. Kevin Warsh says he wants to see "direct" and "unfiltered" signals from markets. This is a rationale he gives for offering less guidance about future ... Twitter·经济学者 Score 63
  40. The Fed's next step is far from clear Financial Times Score 65
  41. FOMC声明后，美联储9月加息的概率下降 格隆汇快讯 Score 66
  42. 全球市场日报：意外效应——从过去美联储会议日的意外中汲取教训 外资研报 Score 68
  43. 美联储分歧加剧，金价4000美元关口拉锯 第一财经-资讯 Score 67
  44. 瑞银：美联储沟通评估或影响利率市场波动 格隆汇快讯 Score 67
  45. Will they or won't they? The case for and against a Fed rate hike Reuters Score 64
  46. [国信证券]美国7月FOMC会议点评：鹰派“理想”难成“现实” 内资宏观研究 Score 66
  47. U.S. Treasury Yields Soar as Market Struggles to Interpret Fed WSJ Score 62
  48. Further to my recent posts on bond yields: After another sharp surge today, the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond has hit levels not seen since 2007. (Bloomb... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 61
  49. 格隆汇7月30日｜美联储主席沃什：如果从宏观角度观察市场价格，它们并未发出“一切正常”的信号，反而表明金融环境已趋紧。 格隆汇快讯 Score 63
  50. [东吴证券]2026年7月FOMC会议点评：7月FOMC：沃什暗示将丰富通胀目标内容 内资宏观研究 Score 67
  51. 7月FOMC会议回顾：美联储维持利率不变，主席Warsh释放鸽派信号但通胀风险犹存 外资研报 Score 67
  52. VIEW Fed holds rates steady as three policymakers dissent for a hike Reuters Score 67
  53. 全球外汇策略：套息交易持续 外资研报 Score 64
  54. 荷兰国际：如果美联储维持利率不变，美元走势将受油价影响 格隆汇快讯 Score 64
  55. ING Says Dollar to Take Cue from Oil Prices If Fed Holds Rate Bloomberg Score 63
  56. Dysfunction in High-Grade Bond Market Rose in July, NY Fed Says Bloomberg Score 60
  57. Fed holds rates steady: What it means for credit cards, savings accounts, mortgages and auto loans CNBC Score 63
  58. Foreign-Exchange Markets Focusing on BOJ's Forward Guidance WSJ Score 65
  59. Morning Bid: Bond markets doing the Fed's work Reuters Score 66
  60. 摩根资管：美联储最终加息次数或少于市场预期 甚至可能不加息 格隆汇快讯 Score 66
  61. It's a big 48 hours for the bull market starting now CNBC Score 62
  62. Fed Doubts Push Some Funds to Eye Overseas Bets Over Treasuries Bloomberg Score 62
  63. 摩根资管：美联储三票异议是真正的政策信号 华尔街见闻 Score 66
  64. My reaction on @BloombergTV is below. Two takeaways. 9 - 3 vote. Dissents are the new forward guidance. I think when we get to the end of the Warsh te... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 64
  65. Isnt that just another way of saying r* has increased? The expected return on capital is higher, generating an investment boom. Fed has to hike to kee... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 64
  66. From the front page of the Wall Street Journal (below). While this is undoubtedly a firm-specific issue, it also points to something much broader -- a... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 63
  67. Fed Holds Rates Steady, Three Officials Dissent Favoring a Hike Bloomberg Score 67
  68. 美联储7月FOMC会议点评：鹰派按兵不动，三名委员 dissent 支持加息 外资研报 Score 67
  69. Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with 3 FOMC members dissenting in favor of a 25 bp hike. Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated inflation remains above target, w... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 64
  70. The repricing of interest-rate expectations has also improved the relative appeal of leveraged loans. With markets now pricing in fewer rate cuts, the... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 67
  71. The repricing of interest-rate expectations has also improved the relative appeal of leveraged loans. With markets now pricing in fewer rate cuts, the... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 67
  72. The quote/chart from Bloomberg below is accurate. But keep in mind that from 1994 until Warsh, the Fed has operated under various forms of "forward gu... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 63
  73. The chart below starts on Sept 18, 2024, the FOMC meeting at which they kicked off the rate-cutting cycle with a 50 bps move. 30-yr yields went straig... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 61
  74. The Problem With Warsh's Deference to Markets WSJ Score 63
  75. Stock Market Today: Dow Futures Steady; Bond Selloff Extends; Oil Ticks Higher -- Live Updates WSJ Score 67
  76. U.S. Stock Futures Steady Amid Inflation Fears WSJ Score 67
  77. I dont have a political affiliation. Politics doesn't interest me, US politics even less so. But the pop in yields two years ago came from the market ... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 62
  78. RT tom keene: “I actually want more from my Fed. I want to feel comfortable that the Fed knows what it is doing,” she said. “I don’t think it’s s... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 63
  79. The market doesn't tell policymakers what they *should* do, it places bets on what they *will* do. And actually its not even been v good at that. 2 ye... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 63
  80. 美联储连续五次会议持观望立场，虽然出现三张加息票，但市场已经开始质疑美联储抗通胀的决心...... 金十-快讯 Score 67
  81. 美联储按兵不动，加息概率骤降，但“三票分歧”并未消除风险，长债收益率飙升至19年高位，金价上冲继续受阻，下一步仍需看...的检验>> 金十-快讯 Score 64
  82. Warsh's press conference generated more-than-the usual market reaction, and it was as much about what he didn't say than what he did (or what the Fed ... Twitter·财经快讯 Score 63
  83. 美联储继续按兵不动，新主席：这不是结束，只是开始 华尔街见闻 Score 67
  84. 申万宏源：短期内，美联储或按兵不动 格隆汇快讯 Score 65
  85. 美联储维持利率不变，但三名官员罕见投票支持加息。通胀、油价和AI投资推动内部鹰派抬头，沃什接掌美联储两个月后，政策分歧公开化。点击查看... 金十-快讯 Score 67
  86. 7月FOMC会议快评：保持耐心但耐心减弱 外资研报 Score 69
  87. Asian Stocks to Fall as Fed Keeps Rates on Hold: Markets Wrap Bloomberg Score 63
  88. OUT NOW - my live broadcast on: - Federal Reserve meeting with @KRooneyVera & - $MSFT & $META (disaster!) earnings w/ @maxwiethe Apple https://podcast... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 62
  89. Opinion | Warsh, the Fed and Market Signals WSJ Score 67
  90. Warsh's Posture on Interest Rates Sparks Market Inflation Fears WSJ Score 62
  91. The issue, for now, is that if you measure the “wordings” from a quantitative standpoint, they keep getting more hawkish (also today). It may all be... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 61
  92. 财料 格隆汇快讯 Score 64
  93. Fed Holds but Warsh Hobbles Market WSJ Score 64
  94. What to know about the Fed's decision. NYT Score 64
  95. What to know about the Fed's decision. NYT Score 64
  96. Following the Fed, stocks decline, and 30-year bond yields rise – US Market Wrap https://features.financialjuice.com/?p=19931&preview=true Twitter·财经快讯 Score 70
  97. 4 Takeaways From the Federal Reserve Meeting NYT Score 63
  98. 沃什：减少前瞻指引让市场有机会“发声” 格隆汇快讯 Score 64
  99. All Eyes On Federal Reserve with Kathryn Rooney Vera... Plus Microsoft and Meta Earnings https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1nxnRRMXpQMxO Twitter·宏观市场 Score 64
  100. Dissents Show Fed Is 'Running Out of Patience' With Inflation, Goldman Says WSJ Score 66
  101. Stocks Rebound as Warsh Strikes Cautious Tone on Rates WSJ Score 62
  102. Fed's Warsh: We are not going to be constrained by market prices. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 62
  103. Fed's Warsh: If you look broadly at market prices, they are not saying all clear; they have tightened financial conditions. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 67
  104. The expected rate hikes (now 48 bps) are keeping the US dollar bid. The dollar index has not moved much for over a year, but a chartist might look at ... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 62
  105. Fed's Warsh: If I look at the Treasury curve, the dollar, what they are broadly saying is the FOMC does own it, has the credibility to deliver. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 63
  106. Fed's Warsh: In terms of the reaction function, any central banker, when he sees stable employment and underlying inflation moving higher, is more inc... Twitter·财经快讯 Score 66
  107. Fed's Warsh: Central bankers inclined to tighten when inflation rises. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 65
  108. Fed's Warsh: We don't endorse any market move but watch them with keen interest. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 62
  109. Fed's Warsh: We have a reasonable sense of demand, inferring supply. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 63
  110. Fed's Warsh: If you were to describe this as a pause, financial markets would take the other side of that. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 65
  111. Fed's Warsh: Shocks at this juncture make the job a little tougher. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 63
  112. Fed's warsh: We are looking at the extent to which these shocks are broadening inflation. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 65
  113. Fed's Warsh: A lot of our focus was on understanding underlying inflation dynamics amid shocks. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 65
  114. Fed's Warsh: If inflation stays high, rates could be part of the solution. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 64
  115. Fed's Warsh: Market prices are one of many ways policy affects the economy; we will continue to watch that market information. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 70
  116. Fed's Warsh: Markets in the intervening period have a lot to decide. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 63
  117. Fed's Warsh: In the period ahead, we have important decisions to make. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 65
  118. Fed's Warsh: Rates are higher today than 42 days ago. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 62
  119. Fed's Warsh: Don't want to leave the impression we are breathlessly waiting for incoming data. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 62
  120. Fed's Warsh: We got some encouraging inflation data, and we will be watching over the period ahead. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 64
  121. Fed's Warsh: What matters is the trend. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 66
  122. 市场分析：美联储内部不再刻意维持一致立场 格隆汇快讯 Score 67
  123. Fed's Warsh: Interpreting markets is an imperfect business. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 61
  124. Fed's Warsh: We're observing a rise in yields, trying to stay out of it. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 64
  125. Fed's Warsh: Markets are reacting to events much more directly. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 64
  126. 格隆汇7月30日｜美联储主席沃什：美联储围绕四个问题展开了热烈讨论。第一个是谈到了5年来的高通胀；第二个是考虑近期经济冲击；三是谈到因冲击导致的价格上涨；... 格隆汇快讯 Score 64
  127. Fed's Warsh: We're trying not to interfere with that market signal. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 62
  128. Fed's Warsh: I've been trying to get an unfiltered message from the markets. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 64
  129. Fed's Warsh: Discussed monetary policy tools and strategies. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 69
  130. Fed's Warsh: Talked about price increases arising from shocks. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 62
  131. Fed's Warsh: We talked a lot about the past five years of high inflation. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 62
  132. Fed's Chair Warsh: Markets will continue to respond in direction and magnitude as they see fit. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 64
  133. Fed's Warsh: This, in my view, is a change for the better. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 63
  134. Fed's Warsh: Less forward guidance may have influenced market moves. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 67
  135. Fed's Warsh: Prices reacted in real time to incoming information; a reduction in guidance may have been a factor. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 66
  136. Fed's Warsh: Some of the increases between FOMC meetings are among the most significant in decades. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 65
  137. Fed's Warsh: Nominal, real Treasury yields materially higher. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 65
  138. 美联储主席沃什：不存在软通胀目标 华尔街见闻 Score 64
  139. good day Twitter·财经快讯 Score 63
  140. Treasuries Jolted as Fed Hold Trims September Hike Bets Bloomberg Score 70
  141. LIVE: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks after interest rate decision meeting https://youtu.be/kLzUcirVvHE?si=3_3qYoAo_p4q1hEd Twitter·财经快讯 Score 65
  142. Treasury Yields Steady After Fed Decision WSJ Score 66
  143. Fed Rate Statement https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm Twitter·财经快讯 Score 75
  144. US interest rates held for fifth time in a row BBC Score 65
  145. Key Takeaways From Fed Decision to Hold Rates Steady Bloomberg Score 63
  146. Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid signs inflation is cooling CBS News Score 63
  147. US interest rates held for fifth time in a row BBC Score 65
  148. 美联储今年连续第5次宣布维持利率不变 澎湃新闻 Score 66
  149. 格隆汇7月30日｜美联储FOMC声明：联邦公开市场委员会将继续在银行系统中维持充足的准备金政策。 格隆汇快讯 Score 64
  150. Fed Rate Statement: Federal Reserve leaves key overnight interest rate unchanged in the 3.50-3.75% range, will deliver price stability. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 64
  151. Fed Holds Rates Steady But Three Officials Voted for Increase WSJ Score 66
  152. Fed Rate Statement: Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 66
  153. Fed: FOMC is continuing policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 69
  154. Fed: Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 62
  155. Fed: Economic activity is expandng at solid pace despite elevated uncertainty. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 62
  156. 🔴 Fed: Inflation remains elevated relative to 2% goal in part reflecting supply shocks in certain sectors including energy. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 65
  157. Fed meeting Minutes https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm Twitter·财经快讯 Score 71
  158. 美联储连续第五次会议按兵不动，但三票委支持加息 华尔街见闻 Score 69
  159. Inflation break-evens remain eerily quiet, even though the Bloomberg Commodity Spot index is accelerating higher again. Inflation protection still see... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 61
  160. 经济学家：美联储声明或暗藏鹰派伏笔 格隆汇快讯 Score 67
  161. It is important to note that the bout of volatility so far this year in key market prices extends beyond oil. We are also seeing big moves in governme... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 63
  162. Tech, Iran, and Fed weigh on US shares BBC Score 61
  163. [华鑫证券]策略点评报告：7月FOMC：9-3的分裂下的相机抉择 内资策略报告 Score 66
  164. 高盛：若美联储今日按兵不动，外汇市场将关注未来加息概率 格隆汇快讯 Score 69
  165. Warsh's plan for a more opaque Fed will get put to the test by markets on edge CNBC Score 64
  166. 美联储的“利率盲盒”即将开启。当市场仍在纠结加息概率时，期权资金已先行一步，TLT看涨期权异常爆单，揭示了一场针对“鹰派加息引发债市反弹”的硬核对赌。点... 金十-快讯 Score 65
  167. 策略师：通胀放缓为美联储留出了按兵不动的空间 格隆汇快讯 Score 69
  168. Tech Earnings, Fed Meeting: What to Watch the Rest of the Week WSJ Score 62
  169. Interest rate decision updates: Fed weighs whether to hike or hold USA Today Score 63
  170. Fed Watchers Gird for a Lesson on Reading Warsh in High-Stakes Rate Call Bloomberg Score 66
  171. RT unusual_whales: FOMC IS TODAY Will the Fed cut rates? Listen to the experts, including: @josephwang @MPelletierCIO @super_macro & more. Listen in t... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 66
  172. 晨间市场摘要：事实与感受的背离 外资研报 Score 69
  173. 美元：美联储的看涨不对称性 外资研报 Score 70