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FOMC Decision Day: Maximum Binary Outcome; Markets Price ~30% Hike Probability With Potential Dissents; Oil Ceasefire Fades, CTA Duration Shorts at Record Extreme Create Asymmetric Bond Rally Potential

The July 28-29 FOMC meeting is the most binary in years — market-implied hike probability at ~30% , while all 104 surveyed economists expect a hold ; Chair Warsh's silent, no-guidance regime has maximized uncertainty, with Citadel Securities now the prominent outlier calling for a 25bp hike ; CTA bond duration shorts are at unprecedented extremes, ensuring any dovish outcome triggers massive forced buying ; oil has fallen sharply on renewed ceasefire hopes, partially easing energy-inflation fear, but the Strait of Hormuz blockade remains unresolved .

67 sources ~48 min

0. Weekly Arc

Over the past week, the arc violently reversed from a dovish post-CPI repricing (July hike probability collapsing to ~11%) to a hawkish re-escalation driven by Brent surging to $100/bbl on US-Iran escalation, pushing July hike probability to 36-38% and 10-year yields above 4.7%. The ceasefire announcement on July 25-26 partially reversed the hawkish trade, collapsing oil prices and pulling yields to 4.62%. The arc ends at today’s decision point: maximum uncertainty, with ~30% market-implied hike probability, up to 3 potential dissenting votes (Logan, Hammack, possibly Kashkari), Warsh’s zero-guidance regime, and CTA bond shorts at record extremes creating asymmetric risk.

No [N] — synthesized from past summaries.

1. Policy Narrative & Expectations

The net change over the past ~24h is no material change in the policy narrative — the FOMC meeting is at the decision point, with market pricing oscillating near a ~30% hike probability [1][2][3][4][5]. The key new element is the fragility of the “consensus” for a hold: Citadel Securities has become the most prominent outlier, changing its base case to a 25bp hike this week [6], and PGIM’s Robert Tipp warns the market may underestimate the probability of action [6]. The market has fully priced a September 25bp hike at ~76% probability [7][8][9][10], and fed funds futures open interest has surged to an all-time high [11]. The key variable for pricing today is the number of dissenting votes and the tone of Warsh’s press conference, not the decision itself [12][6].

1.1 FOMC Officials’ Remarks

No public FOMC remarks in the past 24h. (The decision and press conference are today.)

1.2 Policy Signals & Institutional Communication

  • [ONGOING] FOMC meeting is the most binary in years: The market-implied probability of a 25bp hike stands at ~30% (ranging from 29.4% to 36.3% across sources [1][2][3][4][5]), while all 104 surveyed economists expect a hold [6]. The gap between market pricing and economist consensus is the widest of the cycle, reflecting Warsh’s abandoned-forward-guidance regime [1][13][14][15]. Fed funds futures open interest hit an all-time high, signaling extreme positioning [11].

  • [ONGOING] Institutional consensus for a hold with dissents: Most major houses — Citi [4], TwentyFour Asset Management [16], BofA [17], TD Securities [18], CBA [19], JPMorgan [20], HSBC [21] — expect a hold with 1-3 hawkish dissents (Logan, Hammack, possibly Kashkari). Citi’s economics team expects the Fed to pause and deliver two rate cuts by end-2026 [4]. JPMorgan assigns 50% probability to a “hawkish pause” scenario, with the S&P 500 moving +0.25% to -0.50% [6].

  • [NEW] Citadel Securities — prominent outlier, changing base case to a 25bp hike: Citadel Securities macro strategy head Frank Flight has changed the firm’s base case to a 25bp hike this week, making it the most notable institutional outlier [6]. PGIM’s Robert Tipp says the market may underestimate the probability of a hike, arguing that Warsh has already set the stage [6]. Wrightson ICAP’s Lou Crandall says “there is no good reason not to hike” [6].

  • [ONGOING] Market pricing implies 76% September hike probability, ~90% probability of higher rates by January: CME FedWatch shows a ~76% probability of a September 25bp hike [7][8][9][10], up from 59% a month ago [9]. Fed funds futures imply a 90% probability that rates will be at least 25bp higher by January [22]. The market prices about 1.76 total rate hikes for the year, up from 1.263 a week ago, driven by the oil price rebound [23].

  • [NEW] Goldman Sachs — US CAI at +4.2%, global activity surprising to upside: Goldman Sachs reports the US July Current Activity Indicator (CAI) is at +4.2% (annualized qoq change), and global activity indicators surprised to the upside in July [24]. This supports the “growth resilient” narrative and complicates the dovish case.

  • [ONGOING] Citi — US equities in ‘good news is bad news’ regime: Citi notes that the market is in a ‘good news is bad news’ regime where positive economic surprises lead to stock sell-offs due to tightening fears [4].

  • [NEW] Fed inflation framework task force to reduce Phillips Curve weight: Deutsche Bank reports that the Fed’s inflation framework task force will reduce the weight of the Phillips Curve in inflation forecasting and expand consideration of money supply and government spending, potentially returning to a preemptive policy stance [25]. This is a structural shift in the Fed’s analytical framework.

  • [ONGOING] CTA bond duration shorts at record extreme: UBS reports that CTA short duration positions have tripled to unprecedented levels, with any decline in yields beyond 15bp from current levels potentially triggering ~1-2.5 billion USD DV01 of forced buying [26].

  • [NEW] BofA — a July hike would be unprecedented since 1994: BofA notes that the Fed has never hiked when the market-implied probability was below 60% since 1994 [17]. A hike today with a ~30% probability would be the largest FOMC surprise in three decades.

2. Key Data & Market Read

  • [ONGOING] June CPI — slowed to 3.5% from 4.2%, below expectations: The June CPI came in below expectations at 3.5% y/y [1][7][27]. Market read: Weakened the case for an immediate July hike and pushed the debate to September [28]. Narrative impact: Provides the data rationale for a hold, but the subsequent oil surge to $100/bbl has partially reversed the dovish repricing.

  • [ONGOING] June payrolls — 57,000, below expectations, prior months revised down: The June nonfarm payrolls report came in at 57,000, below expectations and with a two-month net downward revision of 74,000 [6][29][30]. Market read: Gives the Fed more time to observe, supporting a pause. Narrative impact: The labor market is cooling from overheated levels, which supports the hold camp.

  • [ONGOING] Initial jobless claims — 187,000, lowest since 1969: The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims at 187,000, a 57-year low [30][23]. Market read: Bolstered the view that the Fed can focus on inflation rather than labor market weakness. Narrative impact: This is a hawkish data point that raises the bar for a dovish pivot.

  • [ONGOING] Q2 GDP and June PCE due Thursday, July 30: The Commerce Department will release the first look at Q2 GDP and the June PCE price index on Thursday [9][10]. Narrative impact: These releases will be the next catalyst for repricing after the FOMC meeting, with JPMorgan expecting the June core PCE to remain sticky at 3.4% y/y [20].

No new major data release in the past 24h.

3. Financial-Conditions Signals

  • [ONGOING] Credit & banking — high interest rates cutting into consumer and small business borrowing: Current interest rates have pushed borrowing costs beyond the reach of many consumers and smaller businesses, cutting into sales of autos and industrial equipment [22]. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.58%, the highest since August 2025 [5].

  • [NEW] Credit & banking — Citi: market behavior consistent with ‘tightening of financial conditions’ regime: Citi’s quantitative macro strategy team notes that the current market performance is most consistent with a “tightening of financial conditions” regime, with sector rotation (energy and healthcare strong, tech weak) matching the classic pattern [31]. Long-only managers have become net sellers, while hedge funds are net buyers of tech, industrials, and financials [31].

  • [ONGOING] Liquidity — CTA duration shorts at record, systemic investor positioning vulnerable: UBS reports CTA short duration positions at unprecedented levels [26]. Deutsche Bank strategists note that systematic investor positioning is at the 70th percentile, creating vulnerability if volatility rises or the market breaks lower [32]. Implied correlations are near multi-decade lows, suppressing realized vol but creating a tail risk of a volatility spike if correlations revert [32].

  • [ONGOING] Liquidity — financial conditions changed little last week: The Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index stood at 1.143 on July 24, up slightly from 1.06 the prior week [23]. EUR/USD and JPY/USD cross-currency basis swaps showed little change in offshore USD liquidity [23].

  • [NEW] Dollar & rates — TD Securities and Goldman Sachs expect tactical USD weakness on a hold: TD Securities predicts the dollar will weaken if the Fed holds, with the magnitude depending on FOMC unity [33][18]. Goldman Sachs sees tactical USD weakness on a pause but warns it may be brief if energy prices remain high [6].

  • [NEW] Dollar & rates — HSBC says gold may rise modestly if Fed holds: HSBC notes that if the Fed holds rates unchanged, gold could see a modest rally [21]. Gold was near $4,020/oz, extending a 1.1% decline from the prior session [34].

  • [ONGOING] Dollar & rates — 10-year yield at 4.62%, in the ‘danger zone’: The 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.62% [35], down from its recent high of 4.71%. Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer flags that the 10-year at 4.7% is in the 4.5-5.0% “danger zone,” where yields historically have pressured risk assets [36]. JPMorgan notes that if yields move above 4.8%, more pressure on rate-sensitive stocks should start [5][32]. HSBC has flagged that long-end Treasury yields are in the “Danger Zone” [5].

4. Global Central-Bank Linkages

  • [ONGOING] Bank of Canada — held rates steady: The BoC maintained its policy rate, balancing Middle East inflation risks with weak domestic growth and USMCA negotiation uncertainty [27]. The market expects future rate cuts [27].

  • [ONGOING] PBoC — expected to announce further stimulus: China’s GDP was slightly below expectations with weak consumer spending, and the market expects further stimulus measures [27].

  • [ONGOING] ECB — struggles with hawkish credibility logic: TS Lombard’s Dario Perkins criticizes central banks for equating credibility with choosing the most hawkish option rather than the correct one, pointing to the ECB’s difficulties [37].

  • [ONGOING] BOJ — expected to hike in October, may raise growth and inflation forecasts this week: JPMorgan expects the BOJ to hike in October, with this week’s meeting potentially used to set the stage by raising growth and inflation forecasts [20].

  • [NEW] BOE — expected to hold with 6-3 vote, but wording may turn hawkish: JPMorgan expects the Bank of England to hold rates with a 6-3 vote but with wording that may subtly turn hawkish [20].

  • [NEW] ECB — expected to hike only once more in September: JPMorgan expects the ECB to deliver only one more rate hike in September, as inflation moderates [20].

5. Asset Implications

This section is inference — no [N]. Anchored to the facts above.

QuadrantCurrent probability tiltKey asset implicationAnchoring narrative
Growth↑ + Inflation↑Falling but not collapsedThe oil ceasefire has partially unwound the energy-driven stagflation trade, but the Strait of Hormuz blockade and sticky core services inflation keep the tail alive; CTA duration shorts at record extremes mean any bond rally on a dovish outcome is amplified; commodities↑ TIPS↑ nominal long bonds↓; Goldman’s US CAI at +4.2% provides the growth anchor§1 (CME ~30% July hike, 76% September); §1.2 (Citadel base case hike, CTA shorts record); §2 (CPI 3.5%, claims 187K); §3 (10y 4.62%, 30y above 5%); §65 (Goldman CAI +4.2%)
Growth↑ + Inflation↓RisingThe Goldilocks window is reopening: oil collapse removes the energy inflation tail, CPI disinflation (3.5%) intact, PMI beat and strong earnings (S&P 500 Q2 +24% y/y) [27] confirm growth resilience; CTA shorts at record ensure any dovish outcome triggers massive forced buying; Citi’s base case of two rate cuts by year-end [4] provides the dovish tail; Goldman’s global activity upside [24] supports the growth leg§1 (Citi pause + cuts, all 104 economists hold); §1.2 (CTA shorts record); §2 (CPI 3.5%, payrolls weakening); §3 (10y 4.62%, BofA: hike would be unprecedented); §45 (Citi: ‘good news is bad news’)
Growth↓ + Inflation↑FallingStagflation tail is being partially unwound by the ceasefire, but the Strait of Hormuz blockade is unresolved and the Iran war adds uncertainty; the Nasdaq has entered correction territory (down >10% from peak) [30]; chip stocks are in a bear market [38]; the AI capex narrative has flipped from ‘more capex = stronger thesis’ to ‘more capex = cash flow sustainability concern’ [39]; Alphabet’s post-earnings drop on negative FCF signals the vulnerability§1.1 (Logan, Hammack call for hike); §2 (oil $100 briefly, gasoline $4); §3 (Nasdaq correction, SOX bear); §57 (AI capex narrative flipped); §59 (Tesla, MSFT, Meta in bear market)
Growth↓ + Inflation↓FallingLong-duration bonds would rally on recession + disinflation, but the real yield is still high and credit spreads are tight; the extreme CTA duration short [26] means any deflationary shock triggers a violent bond rally; but the strong earnings growth (S&P 500 +24%) [27] and high CAI [24] mean recession is not the base case; Citi’s two-cut call [4] is the dovish tail that would benefit this quadrant, but it requires the Fed to see growth weakening§1.2 (Citi pause + cuts); §2 (CPI disinflation, but not recession-tier data); §3 (10y 4.62%, credit spreads still tight); §37 (earnings +24%); §45 (Citi: Fed cuts in H2)

Stock-bond correlation call: The regime is leaning negative correlation (growth-driven) for the first time since the oil surge — the Middle East ceasefire has reopened a window where bonds rally (yields fall) on lower inflation pressure and equities could rally on geopolitical de-escalation. However, three forces prevent a clean break to negative correlation: (1) the FOMC meeting itself is binary — a ~30% hike probability with up to 3 dissenters means a hawkish surprise hits both equities (rate shock) and bonds (yields up); (2) the Strait of Hormuz blockade is unresolved, and Iran launched ballistic missiles at US forces on July 28 that were intercepted [7], keeping the energy re-escalation tail alive; (3) the ‘good news is bad news’ regime identified by Citi [4] means strong economic data actually hurts equities by raising tightening fears, creating a positive-correlation bias. The correlation structure is binary for the next 24 hours: a dovish hold (with no or only 1-2 dissenters) flips decisively to negative; a hike or a strongly hawkish hold with 3+ dissents maintains positive correlation.

Risk-budget implication:

  • Overweight front-end duration tactically — the CTA bond shorts at record extremes [26] mean any dovish FOMC outcome triggers massive forced buying. The 2-year at ~4.30% provides a favorable entry point, with the CTA forced-buying tail providing asymmetric upside. Use a 2-year receiver position today, not options — the CTA asymmetry overwhelms any premium cost.
  • Overweight the 7s30s curve steepener — the oil crash and CTA buying drive the front-end lower (yields fall), while the fiscal-supply story and unresolved Strait of Hormuz risk keep the long end elevated. JPMorgan [6] and Morgan Stanley [38] support this steepening view.
  • Underweight high-beta tech and semiconductors — the Nasdaq has entered correction territory [30], the SOX index is in a bear market [38], and the AI capex narrative has flipped from ‘more capex = stronger thesis’ to ‘more capex = cash flow sustainability concern’ [39]. Alphabet’s post-earnings drop on negative FCF is a signal. The Citi sector flow model favors tech, but this is a contrarian short-term signal [31].
  • Overweight gold conditionally — gold at ~$4,020 is range-bound between the ceasefire-driven risk-off unwind and the Iran war tail. HSBC says gold may rally on a hold [21]. A long gold position with a stop below $3,900 and a target of $4,200-4,500 provides favorable asymmetry for the Strait of Hormuz re-escalation tail.
  • Underweight the USD tactically — TD Securities [33][18] and Goldman Sachs [6] both see tactical USD weakness on a hold. The magnitude depends on FOMC unity. Citi’s base case of two cuts by year-end [4] also supports a weaker USD over the medium term.

6. Contrarian & Tail Risks

  • Consensus fragility — the trade is self-fulfilling and fragile: The ~30% market-implied hike probability may be partly self-fulfilling: “Traders have priced in rate hikes largely because many other traders are doing the same” [28]. The record open interest in fed funds futures [11] confirms extreme positioning. If the FOMC delivers a clean hold (no dissents or only 1), the entire positioning unwind is violent and asymmetric.

  • Consensus fragility — Warsh’s “family fight” could produce a hike no economist expects: All 104 surveyed economists expect a hold [6], but Citadel Securities has changed its base case to a hike [6], PGIM warns the market underestimates the probability [6], and Wrightson ICAP says “there is no good reason not to hike” [6]. A hike — which no economist expects — would be the largest FOMC surprise since 1994, and BofA notes the Fed has never hiked with a market-implied probability below 60% [17].

  • Consensus fragility — the CTA bond short is a volcano, but the eruption could go either way: The CTA duration short at unprecedented levels [26] creates a massive asymmetry: any dovish outcome triggers forced buying. But if the Fed delivers a hawkish surprise (hike or 3+ dissents), the CTA shorts are validated and the forced buying never materializes — instead, the market reprices aggressively for September, and yields break above 4.80%.

  • Consensus fragility — Warsh’s press conference is the wildcard: Warsh will continue to downplay forward guidance, and his press conference “may not provide clear hints on September’s policy path” [12]. If he surprises by offering any guidance, the market reaction is unpredictable. The key variable is the number of dissenting votes, the statement’s description of inflation risks, and whether Warsh retains room for future tightening [12].

  • Second-order — the Strait of Hormuz blockade and Iran war risk: The ceasefire is a pause, not a resolution. Iran launched ballistic missiles at US forces on July 28 that were intercepted [7]. The Strait of Hormuz remains a risk, and the oil price collapse (WTI at $82.04, up 3.5% today [35]) shows the market is pricing a ceasefire, not a resolution. If hostilities resume, oil spikes re-introduce full stagflation.

  • Second-order — the AI capex sustainability concern is a systemic risk: The market’s pricing logic has flipped from “more capex = stronger AI narrative” to “more capex = more cash flow sustainability concerns” [39]. Alphabet’s negative free cash flow (-$5.9 billion in Q2) [39] triggered a >4% after-hours stock drop. If other tech giants (Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) follow, the valuation downgrade driven by capex could accelerate, amplifying the already-declining tech sector.

  • Source quality control: The CME FedWatch data [1][2][3][4][5] is primary exchange data — authoritative. The Bloomberg economist survey [6] is the most authoritative source on the economist consensus. The Citadel Securities call [6] is primary institutional research from a major market maker — notable for being a prominent outlier. The Citi analysis [31][4] is primary institutional research. The UBS CTA analysis [26] is primary — the most important structural positioning fact. The Goldman Sachs reports [6][24] are primary research. The TD Securities [33][18] forecasts are primary. The JPMorgan analysis [6][20] is primary. The Bianco Research [15] and Duality Research [40] calls are social/single-source — treat as analytical notes, not facts. The Iranian missile launch [7] is from US Central Command, verified by multiple sources.

Appendix: Additional Sources

  • [41] WSJ — uncertainty about number of dissenting votes
  • [42] Business Insider — FOMC likely to hold or hike by 25bp
  • [43] 第一财经 — Furman expects one hike this year, probably in September or later
  • [44] Mohamed El-Erian — complexity of Fed Day analysis
  • [22] NBC News — 90% probability of higher rates by January
  • [45] NPR — Warsh: no tolerance for elevated inflation
  • [28] 财联社 — four key areas to watch in tonight’s FOMC decision
  • [46] WSJ — oil prices up, chip stocks down
  • [16] 格隆汇 — TwentyFour AM expects hawkish hold
  • [47] 金十数据 — supply-side inflation, market watching if Warsh uses a hike to prove new Fed path
  • [8] The Independent — Fed hold this week, September hike possible
  • [48] Financial Juice — policy response hinging on data
  • [49] 格隆汇 — Ned Davis Research: Fed to hike by September
  • [29] 华泰睿思 — Warsh’s abolition of forward guidance creates large rate-hike expectation divergence
  • [14] 金十 — Warsh refuses forward guidance
  • [50] 格隆汇 — MUFG expects hawkish hold, dollar support
  • [51] Guy Berger — FOMC decision preview
  • [52] WSJ — Warsh’s strategy makes decision unpredictable
  • [53] WSJ — Asian currencies consolidate before FOMC
  • [54] Bloomberg — Warsh hasn’t indicated whether he supports a hike; fed funds futures imply 40% probability
  • [55] 金十 — Citadel Securities warns of potential surprise hike
  • [30] 第一财经 — Nasdaq in correction; market prices ~100% September hike probability
  • [34] Bloomberg — Gold near $4,020, declining
  • [56] 格隆汇 — CME FedWatch: 69.5% hold, 30.5% hike
  • [36] Jurrien Timmer — 10-year yield in danger zone
  • [57] Hanno Lustig — central bank models assume passive fiscal policy
  • [11] Bloomberg — open interest in fed funds futures at all-time high
  • [58] Bloomberg — no specific Fed facts
  • [59] WSJ — Fed’s failure to contain inflation
  • [60] Bloomberg — market divided on rate decision, prominent voices support hike
  • [37] Dario Perkins — ECB struggles with hawkish credibility logic
  • [61] Bloomberg — Warsh adopts more restrained communication style
  • [62] Investing.com — market watchers weigh chances of surprise hike
  • [32] 华尔街见闻 — implied correlations near multi-decade lows, systematic positioning vulnerable
  • [63] 金十-快讯 — BIS warns AI is interfering with macro signals
  • [64] 华创证券 — no direct Fed facts
  • [65] 中邮证券 — expects FOMC hold with hawkish tone
  • [66] 威廉博莱 — inflation regime shifted to 2.5-3.0% range, needing higher rates
  • [67] Huachuang Securities — US equity funds saw net outflow of $4.97 billion in week ending July 16

This report is a macro-mechanism analysis, not investment advice.

30-day review of this series 7/30 – 8/29
  • Warsh’s credibility shock became the regime’s axis. The July FOMC’s 9-3 hold and ambiguous presser triggered an EM-style credibility shock that pushed the 30-year to 2007 highs; over the following month the Chair’s no-forward-guidance experiment made every data release a “mini-FOMC,” with the Jackson Hole keynote emerging as the arbiter of whether the reaction-function premium would persist.
  • The rate path whipsawed from hike to hold and back. September hike odds collapsed from roughly two-thirds in early August, when soft payrolls and CPI/PPI flipped the debate toward labor-market tolerance, through a 27-32% trough, before a hot July PCE and hawkish FOMC minutes re-lifted pricing into a contested ~36-44% band entering Jackson Hole.
  • The long end developed its own term-premium wall. Yields rose even as front-end easing pricing deepened — the 30Y broke above 5.3%, then Bessent’s surprise doubling of buybacks bought barely two days of relief before the “Bessent put” fully unwound, confirming the move was fiscal and credibility risk, not policy-path dynamics.
  • Gold decoupled from rates into a debasement trade. Its driver shifted from real-yield opportunity cost to fiscal-credit risk, with the metal rallying through high long-end real rates to $4,700; the same dollar-credibility concern that blocked long nominal bonds became gold’s structural fuel.
  • The Treasury-Fed boundary battle blurred debt management with monetary policy. BofA’s “quasi-QE” framing, TGA-funded buybacks, and Fed RMP plans turned the long end into a political asset, with the dollar serving as the shock absorber and policy credibility itself the contested variable.

Sources67

  1. Uncertainty creeps into Fed's rate decision as Warsh keeps his cards hidden Reuters Score 63
  2. Investor Reaction to Fed Decision Could Depend on Dissents WSJ Score 69
  3. Market Reaction to Fed Could Depend on Dissents WSJ Score 69
  4. 日内FOMC：美联储会加息吗？ 外资研报 Score 70
  5. Investors are bracing for a hawkish Fed meeting. Here's what it means for markets. Business Insider Score 67
  6. 多年来“最不确定”的一次！今晚的美联储会给“惊吓”吗？ 华尔街见闻 Score 68
  7. Treasury yields inch higher as Wall Street awaits Fed interest rate decision CNBC Score 67
  8. Despite frustration over high prices, Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged -- for now The Independent Score 62
  9. Despite frustration over high prices, Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged -- for now Seattle Times Score 61
  10. Despite frustration over high prices, Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged -- for now AP News Score 61
  11. Traders Make Record Rush to Fed Futures as Doubts Shadow Market Bloomberg Score 67
  12. 沃什继续淡化前瞻指引，发布会未必会对9月政策路径给出明确暗示。相比主席表态，加息票数、声明对通胀风险的描述，以及沃什是否为收紧政策保留空间，可能更具定... 金十-快讯 Score 64
  13. 加息还是暂停？新美联储通讯社：今晚FOMC三大看点全解析 华尔街见闻 Score 64
  14. 美联储利率决议前夕，市场罕见陷入分歧。沃什拒绝依赖传统前瞻指引，让交易员无法提前判断政策方向，而7月加息与否都将成为其执掌美联储后的重大信号。点击查看.... 金十-快讯 Score 68
  15. Way too many people are arguing what the Fed will do by explaining how they USED TO work. They don’t work that way anymore and now a big “family fig... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 62
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  26. 利率地图：全球投资组合中的债券 外资研报 Score 62
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  32. “风险事件”无处不在！本周美联储决议、科技巨头财报与油价齐聚，市场波动显著升温 华尔街见闻 Score 63
  33. TD Warns Dollar Set to Drop as Market Misprices Fed Rate Risk Bloomberg Score 65
  34. Gold Edges Lower as Traders Assess Prospects for Fed Rate Hike Bloomberg Score 63
  35. Markets Brace for One of the Most Uncertain Fed Days in Years Bloomberg Score 66
  36. The bottlenecks in the Middle East have put bond markets back in bear-steepening mode. The US 10-year yield is now at 4.7%, which is well into the 4.5... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 60
  37. For some reason "credibility" in central banking is always about choosing the most hawkish option, not choosing the right option. Look at the mess the... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 60
  38. Will high bond yields slam the brakes on Wall Street? Not necessarily: McGeever Reuters Score 62
  39. [东吴证券]美股周观点：全球市场陷入高波状态 内资策略报告 Score 62
  40. Very strongly recommend you subscribe to Duality. Consistent, high quality work! Twitter·宏观市场 Score 63
  41. Will the Fed Decision Have Dissents Today? WSJ Score 65
  42. Fed meeting updates: The FOMC's interest rate decision is the closest call in months Business Insider Score 67
  43. 美联储“神秘夜”将如何上演？美国总统经济顾问委员会前主席这么看 第一财经-资讯 Score 65
  44. Welcome to Fed Day — a complex one, marked by challenges relating to Analyzing current inflation, employment and market dynamics, Uniting an FOMC wit... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 73
  45. The Federal Reserve faces a critical decision on interest rates NPR Score 61
  46. Oil Gains, Chip Stocks Extend Losses Ahead of Fed Decision Day WSJ Score 65
  47. 从伊朗战争到能源价格，再到特朗普关税，当前美国通胀更多来自供给端压力。市场关注沃什是否会用一次加息证明美联储的新路线。 金十-快讯 Score 61
  48. Timing and extent of policy response to hinge on upcoming data, economic conditions Twitter·财经快讯 Score 61
  49. 策略师：美联储加息有理由 但数据和通胀预期也支持按兵不动 格隆汇快讯 Score 64
  50. 三菱日联：如果美联储“偏紧缩”地维持利率不变 美元料将获得支撑 格隆汇快讯 Score 65
  51. A great preview of tomorrow's FOMC decision courtesy of my Access/Macro colleague @tmahedy https://accessmacro.substack.com/p/dont-expect-a-july-fed-h... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 65
  52. What to Watch for at the Fed Meeting WSJ Score 68
  53. Asian Currencies Consolidate Ahead of FOMC Decision WSJ Score 60
  54. Hike or Hold? Fed's Warsh Has Markets Unsure Bloomberg Score 65
  55. 美联储利率决议进入倒计时，城堡证券发出沃什可能意外加息的预警后，引爆了市场焦虑！随着交易员加速布局对冲，华尔街正为一场“鹰派惊雷”提前防守。点击查看..... 金十-快讯 Score 62
  56. 美联储本周维持利率不变的概率69.5% 格隆汇快讯 Score 64
  57. Central bankers fly on their instruments. When Fed officials stated that quantitative easing carried no risk for inflation and that the balance sheet ... Twitter·经济学者 Score 64
  58. Federal Reserve Meeting Carries Stakes Beyond Interest Rates Bloomberg Score 64
  59. Opinion | What 'Guidance' Can the Fed Really Offer? WSJ Score 62
  60. Citadel Securities' Fed Rate Hike Call Adds to Market Angst Bloomberg Score 66
  61. Why Kevin Warsh Thinks the Fed Talks Too Much Bloomberg Score 65
  62. Market watchers weigh chances of a surprise Fed rate hike tomorrow https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/market-watchers-weigh-chances-of-a-supr... Twitter·财经快讯 Score 69
  63. 国际清算银行预警，AI正干扰宏观信号，增加政策“校准”难度。若央行因误判生产力而维持低利率，恐引发通胀风险。点击查看… 金十-快讯 Score 62
  64. 不一样的利润高增——6月工业企业利润点评 一瑜中的 Score 63
  65. [中邮证券]海外宏观周报：欧央行按兵不动，静待美联储议息会议 内资宏观研究 Score 66
  66. [威廉博莱]经济学人周刊：为什么要等？ 内资宏观研究 Score 60
  67. 美股单周转为净流出，中国微观流动性边际改善 ——全球资金流动周报第19期 一瑜中的 Score 66