· Wednesday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Hike odds push toward 70% as Barr backs "decisive" action and the oil shock tests Warsh's marker; 10Y near 4.8%
The hawkish repricing consolidated higher — September hike odds now sit near 66–70% after Governor Barr conditionally endorsed "decisive" rate action if inflation fails to moderate and renewed US-Iran strikes pushed Brent above $92 ; the 10Y reached ~4.8%, its highest since early 2025 , with Friday's payrolls and the Sept-11 CPI set to arbitrate .
US–Iran Trade Heaviest Strikes Since July as Brent Clears $96, Wedding-Strike Casualties Cloud Escalation
Escalation across every layer: the US began its second round of strikes on IRGC targets in three days at 9/1 16:00 UTC, Iran answered with missile and drone fire at US assets in Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait and Bahrain, and a US strike reportedly hit a wedding near Sirik; Brent touched ~$96 while Hormuz transits stayed near half a dozen ships a day .