· Tuesday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
September hike odds escalate into a 64–66% band, 10Y hits 4.76% (Jan-2025 high) on Iran + Warsh's G20 savings-glut pushback; street splits on delivery
One week after Jackson Hole, September hike pricing has consolidated higher into a 64–66% band (CME FedWatch 65.4%, CNBC 66.1%) with the 10Y at 4.76% — its highest since January 2025 — as Warsh's G20 rebuttal of the "savings glut" narrative and renewed US-Iran escalation bear-steepened the curve, while the selloff spread to EM yields; BofA/Barclays/DB now hike, but Morgan Stanley/Citi/Wells Fargo warn the Fed cannot deliver the priced path .
Supertankers struck in Hormuz as US–Iran fire resumes, Brent tops $91
Escalation is back on three layers at once: two Saudi-crude supertankers were hit by projectiles in the strait, the US and Iran traded their first fire in a month, and Brent climbed 0.8% to $91.23 — while visible transits hover near five vessels a day and Qatari/Omani mediation stays stalled .