· Thursday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Williams cools the September repricing into the low 60s; Beige Book confirms sticky inflation; 10Y pauses ~4.77% after testing 4.8%+
NY Fed President John Williams — a swing FOMC voter — argued the Treasury selloff reflects a strong, AI-led economy rather than inflation fears and stressed data dependence, helping pull September hike odds from ~67% to ~62% after a soft ADP print; the 10Y slipped to ~4.77% after Wednesday's break above 4.80%, leaving Friday's payrolls and the Sept-11 CPI as the arbiters .
Tentative pause after heaviest US–Iran exchange since July as Brent holds ~$95 and Hormuz stays nearly shut
The military layer shows tentative de-escalation — no confirmed exchange of fire since around midday Wednesday (Sydney time) and Brent slipped 0.45% to $95.2 — but the waterway remains largely shut (four visible commodity transits vs a ~13 average), Iran widened its non-compliant-vessel list, Bahri confirmed two crew killed, and Saudi August exports hit a record low, so the supply-side premium stays intact .