· Wednesday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
〈June CPI Miss Triggers Sharp Dovish Repricing; Warsh Testimony Pushes Back — July Hike Probability Collapses to ~20%〉
June CPI came in well below expectations (headline +3.5% y/y, core +2.6% y/y), collapsing July hike probability from ~50% to ~20% and triggering a bond rally (2-year -14bp to 4.14%), but Chair Warsh's hawkish congressional testimony — stressing zero tolerance for inflation and downplaying the data as "one data point" — partially reversed the rally, leaving the 10-year at ~4.59% and the dollar recouping half its post-CPI loss; the regime remains binary with PPI and the second day of testimony ahead.
〈U.S. Reinstates Blockade and Strikes Iran; Trump Reverses 20% Fee; Oil at One-Month High, Shipping Near Halt〉
The U.S. reinstated its naval blockade on Iranian ports and launched a third consecutive night of strikes on Iran, Iran retaliated against U.S. bases in multiple Gulf states, President Trump reversed his 20% fee proposal in favor of Gulf state investment deals, Strait traffic fell to a trickle (10 ships Monday), and Brent crude hit a one-month high above $87/bbl before settling near $86 — the conflict has returned to full-scale disruption with no diplomatic off-ramp visible.