· Tuesday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
〈Waller Triggers a Hawkish Pivot — July Hike Probability Surges to ~50%, CPI and Warsh Testimony as Binary Catalyst〉
Fed Governor Waller's hawkish speech — explicitly linking another hot core inflation print to a near-term rate hike — pushed July hike probability from <10% to ~50% and the 2-year yield to a year-high 4.28%, while Brent crude surged ~10% on escalating US-Iran hostilities; all eyes are on today's June CPI and Warsh's congressional debut as the binary catalysts.
〈U.S. Declares Itself Hormuz Guardian, Imposes 20% Fee; Iran Strikes UAE Tankers, Closure Contested; Transit Collapses, Brent Breaches $85〉
The U.S.-Iran conflict escalated sharply over the weekend and into Monday/Tuesday, with President Trump declaring the U.S. the “Guardian of the Strait of Hormuz” and reimposing a naval blockade on Iran with a 20% fee on all cargo; Iran retaliated by striking two UAE tankers with cruise missiles, killing one sailor, and attacked U.S. bases in multiple Gulf states; Strait transit collapsed to 14 ships on Sunday (a one-month low), and Brent crude surged over 9% on Monday and breached $85 on Tuesday — the highest since mid-June — as the fragile ceasefire agreement effectively dissolved.