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〈June CPI Miss Triggers Sharp Dovish Repricing; Warsh Testimony Pushes Back — July Hike Probability Collapses to ~20%〉

June CPI came in well below expectations (headline +3.5% y/y, core +2.6% y/y), collapsing July hike probability from ~50% to ~20% and triggering a bond rally (2-year -14bp to 4.14%), but Chair Warsh's hawkish congressional testimony — stressing zero tolerance for inflation and downplaying the data as "one data point" — partially reversed the rally, leaving the 10-year at ~4.59% and the dollar recouping half its post-CPI loss; the regime remains binary with PPI and the second day of testimony ahead.

65 sources ~41 min

0. Weekly Arc

The week opened with Waller’s July 13 hawkish salvo (July hike probability ~50%, 2-year yield at a year-high 4.28%). By Tuesday July 14, the June CPI miss (headline +3.5% vs 3.8% consensus, core 2.6% vs 2.8%) violently reversed that repricing — July hike probability collapsed to ~20%, 2-year yielded 4.14%. Chair Warsh’s first congressional testimony, however, pushed back: he declared “zero tolerance” for persistent inflation, called CPI “one data point,” and declined forward guidance. The arc ends with a partial reversal — 10-year yields settling at ~4.59% and the dollar recouping half its losses — and the regime pivoting from “binary hawkish catalyst” to “disinflation vs zero-tolerance standoff.”

1. Policy Narrative & Expectations

The net change over the past ~24h is a sharp dovish reversal from the CPI data, partially offset by Warsh’s hawkish-tinged testimony. The June CPI release — headline +3.5% y/y, core +2.6% y/y, both below consensus — triggered a violent unwind of the Waller-driven rate-hike bets [1][2][3]. Market-implied July hike probability collapsed from ~50% to ~20% [1][4][5]. However, Chair Warsh’s first semiannual testimony simultaneously pushed back: he described the CPI as “one data point,” insisted the FOMC has “zero tolerance for persistently elevated inflation,” and declined to offer any dovish shift in the reaction function [6][7][8][9][10]. The net effect is a more balanced — but still hawkish-leaning — institutional stance: the data gives the Fed time, but the Chair is not declaring victory.

1.1 FOMC Officials’ Remarks

  • [NEW] Hawkish — Kevin Warsh (Chair, July 14 testimony): Warsh delivered his first congressional testimony with a consistently hawkish tone: (1) “The members of our committee have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation. And we share a resolute commitment to restoring price stability” [10]; (2) on CPI: “It’s just one data point. I don’t want to over-interpret or cherry-pick data” [6][7]; (3) “FOMC has zero tolerance for persistently high inflation” [7][3]; (4) on the balance sheet: “The size and duration of the balance sheet merit review” and “any changes in balance sheet policy would be previewed, explained, debated” [7][11][9]; (5) on the dual mandate: “They are mutually reinforcing, not conflicting” [8][12]; (6) rejected having a preferred inflation measure before the task force reports [6]; (7) on AI: “AI-related investment boom is fueling some inflationary pressures” [10]; (8) on forward guidance: the task forces will revisit communication, and the Fed will “make better monetary policy decisions” [10][13]. Marginal shift vs prior history: This is Warsh’s first detailed policy-communication event since the June meeting. His tone is more explicit on inflation commitment than expected after the soft CPI — he deliberately dampened the dovish market reaction. Compared to his Sintra speech (July 7 briefings), he is more direct about “zero tolerance.”

  • [NEW] Dovish-leaning — John C. Williams (New York Fed President): No new remarks today. Per last week’s published remarks, he emphasized energy-led disinflation and said the Fed is “well positioned” to handle shocks. (Will be marked as [ONGOING] but need to check if any new remarks appear in today’s batch. Articles [10] mention Williams’ remarks from last week: “if core PCE inflation exceeds 0.2% monthly, monetary policy would need to respond” — this is already in history, so [ONGOING].)

  • [NEW] Neutral — Michael Barr (Fed Vice Chair for Supervision): Barr gave remarks on AI’s uncertain impact on inequality — “AI could either narrow or widen income and wealth inequality” — but offered no policy signal [14][15].

  • [ONGOING] Hawkish — Christopher Waller (Fed Governor): No new remarks today. His July 13 speech — “if core inflation remains hot, FOMC will need to consider tightening in the near term” — remains the most explicit hawkish signal from any official [10][16][17]. [ONGOING] one line.

1.2 Policy Signals & Institutional Communication

  • [REVERSED] July hike probability collapsed from ~50% to ~20%: Following the CPI release, CME FedWatch data shows the probability of a July 25bp hike fell from 42-50% pre-CPI to 16.6-20% [1][4][5]. September pricing: hold 40-42%, 25bp hike ~50-51%, 50bp hike ~8-9% [18][19]. The CPI-driven pricing shift is the largest since the 2008 financial crisis for a single data release [20].

  • [NEW] Warsh testimony establishes a high bar for easing: The Chair’s clear message that “zero tolerance” remains the baseline, combined with his refusal to declare the mission accomplished, means the disinflation narrative from CPI alone is insufficient to close the rate-hike door [6][7][10].

  • [NEW] Task force membership analysis — likely to reduce forward guidance: Per 华创证券, the five working groups announced July 10 feature members (Fisher, King, Rajan, Mankiw, White) who broadly favor less precise rate-path guidance, larger skepticism toward balance sheet expansion, and a more transparent acknowledgment of uncertainty [21]. Evercore ISI’s Guha called the list “serious and broadly balanced” [21]. This institutional direction reinforces Warsh’s communication reform but also implies higher policy uncertainty in the interim.

  • [ONGOING] BofA three-hike forecast maintained: BofA continues to recommend three 25bp hikes in 2026 (September, October, December) and argues current policy is accommodative, not restrictive [22][23]. BofA’s Q2 GDP tracking estimate was revised down to 1.4% SAAR [22].

  • [NEW] Deutsche Bank — market entering new Fed communication regime: DB warns that reduced forward guidance means future FOMC meetings may generate larger market surprises and increased rate volatility [20].

  • [NEW] Citi — July hike extremely unlikely, September probability also diminished: Citi argues the soft CPI data makes the Fed patient, and sees a window for a pause through summer [24].

2. Key Data & Market Read

  • [NEW] June CPI (released July 14): Headline CPI fell 0.4% m/m (first monthly decline since 2020), +3.5% y/y (vs consensus +3.8% y/y, prior +4.2%). Core CPI flat m/m, +2.6% y/y (vs consensus +2.8% y/y, prior +2.9%) [1][2][3][25]. Market read: A “soft” print that reversed the Waller-driven hawkish repricing. The market took it as a disinflation-signal — bond yields collapsed, equities rallied, July hike bets were slashed [26][1][4]. The “services ex-energy” gauge was flat m/m, easing service-sector inflation concerns [27]. Narrative impact: Confirms that the May 2026 CPI reading was the cycle peak [1], but core PCE (BofA tracking at +3.3% y/y) remains sticky [23], and the Fed’s preferred measure is still well above target. Warsh’s testimony deliberately prevented the data from closing the hike debate.

  • [NEW] Q2 GDP tracking estimate revised down: BofA lowered its tracking estimate to 1.4% SAAR, driven by net exports and inventory drag [22]. Narrative impact: Weakens the growth pillar of the “Growth↑+Inflation↑” quadrant, supporting a “hold” but not necessarily a “cut” scenario.

  • [NEW] US bank earnings (major Q2 reports): Strong bank earnings boosted sentiment alongside the CPI data [28]. Bank of America management assumed a 25bp September rate hike in their guidance [29][30].

  • No major data release in the past 24h besides CPI and earnings.

3. Financial-Conditions Signals

  • [NEW] Dollar & rates — 2-year yield posted largest single-day drop since February: The 2-year yield fell as much as 14bp to 4.14%, before recovering to 4.20% on Warsh’s comments [31][4][5]. The 10-year yield touched 4.59% early Wednesday, regaining some ground after a dip to ~4.56% post-CPI [31][32]. The 30-year yield rose to 5.1135% [31].

  • [NEW] Dollar — DXY recouped half its post-CPI losses: The dollar dropped sharply on CPI but recovered intraday, validating Citi’s “positive asymmetry” thesis — bad data for the dollar is not fully translating into sustained weakness [33][8].

  • [NEW] Oil — elevated on US-Iran conflict: Brent crude rose above $83/bbl, up from ~$70 at end-June, driven by renewed US attacks on Iran and Strait of Hormuz disruption fears [34][2][35]. Oil remains a persistent inflation tail.

  • [ONGOING] Real yields rising since June despite falling oil: The divergence signals the market is repricing Fed reaction function, not just energy supply [2].

  • [ONGOING] Liquidity — Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index at 1.241 (July 10), near decade-loose levels [36]. MMF assets ~$8 trillion [prior].

4. Global Central-Bank Linkages

  • [NEW] PBOC — Zou Lan comments on Fed/ECB/BOJ: PBOC Vice Governor Zou Lan noted the Fed held steady in June with a hawkish signal, the ECB cut 25bp preventively, and the BOJ raised rates again [37][38]. He expected any additional tightening from DM central banks to be moderate [37].

  • [NEW] Japan — June PPI beat expectations, 10-year JGB yield at 1996-high: Japanese producer prices surged above consensus, adding to import-cost-driven inflation pressure and pushing long-end JGB yields to multi-decade highs [32].

  • [NEW] Eurozone — disinflation path confirmed, but PPI still sticky: French and German June CPI fell in line with expectations, supporting the ECB’s cooling narrative, but producer prices remain elevated [32].

5. Asset Implications

This section is inference — no [N]. Anchored to the facts above.

QuadrantCurrent probability tiltKey asset implicationAnchoring narrative
Growth↑ + Inflation↑Falling sharplyThe CPI-driven disinflation and GDP tracking downgrade weaken this quadrant; oil and AI demand remain live inflation tails, but the growth engine is fading; commodities and TIPS benefit still, but nominal bonds rally on rate-hike repricing§1.1 (Warsh: zero tolerance, but CPI is one data point); §2 (CPI miss, GDP tracking 1.4%); §3 (2-year -14bp, oil still elevated)
Growth↑ + Inflation↓RisingThe “Goldilocks” window re-opens as CPI shows disinflation and GDP is not collapsing; the CPI-driven bond and equity rally on July 14 was textbook growth↓+inflation↓ but with growth not yet recession; Warsh’s pushback caps the upside§1.2 (July hike probability collapsed); §2 (CPI miss, bank earnings strong); §3 (dollar recouped half losses — still not a full dovish pivot)
Growth↓ + Inflation↑FallingStagflation probabilities decline as CPI prints soft and the Fed has room to wait; but oil and AI-inflation tail risks remain — the Citi analysis that “renewed US-Iran conflict offset soft data” shows the tail is alive§1.1 (Waller: unanchored expectations risk); §2 (GDP tracking 1.4%); §3 (oil >$83, AI capex inflation); §1.2 (Citi: July hike off, but oil a tail)
Growth↓ + Inflation↓RisingLong-duration bonds rally on the disinflation and growth-weakening mix; the 2-year 14bp rally is the cleanest expression; the BEA PCE revision in September offers a further structural disinflationary tail — HSBC’s long 30-year TIPS trade from prior periods still works if the disinflation narrative solidifies§2 (CPI disinflation, GDP tracking low); §3 (2-year yields at 4.14% after drop); §1.2 (BEA revision possible, per Citi [33])

Stock-bond correlation call: The regime has temporarily shifted toward negative correlation (growth-driven) within the CPI release window. The bond rally (2-year -14bp) and equity rally (S&P 500 +1.23% for the week) on July 14 are consistent with a growth-down, inflation-down regime where bonds hedge equities. However, Warsh’s testimony partially reversed the bond rally — his zero-tolerance language and downplaying of CPI re-introduced a hawkish term-premium component that is more “inflation-fighting credibility” than growth. The oil spike above $83 also threatens to re-couple yields to energy costs. The correlation structure is fragile: a hot PPI or a renewed oil shock could flip it back to positive correlation.

Risk-budget implication:

  • Overweight intermediate nominal duration tactically — the 2-year yield at 4.14% after the CPI collapse is attractive if the disinflation narrative extends. The CPI print gave the Fed room to hold, and Warsh’s zero tolerance actually reduces the risk of a near-term hike (because he won’t hike without more data). A long 2-year position has favorable asymmetry: upside limited to 4.00% but downside capped by Warsh’s zero tolerance at ~4.30%.
  • Overweight the short-end curve (2s10s steepener) — if the CPI disinflation is durable, the front end rallies more than the long end (supply pressure keeps 10+ year yields elevated). The 2-10 spread could widen from current ~40bp toward 50-60bp.
  • Underweight the USD with a long NOKSEK position — Citi recommends long NOKSEK as a geopolitical hedge [33]; a soft CPI and Fed pause support risk-on currencies. The dollar’s positive asymmetry is shortening [33], meaning the dollar is more vulnerable to a sustained selloff.
  • Overweight EM carry exposure — Citi recommends carry baskets long BRL, MXN, COP, TRY funded by EUR and USD [24]. The Fed’s pause window supports EM FX, but oil spikes and geopolitical tail risk keep the risk high. Size accordingly.
  • Underweight nominal long-duration (30y+) — the 30-year yield at 5.11% is driven by supply and term premium, not inflation; Warsh’s potential balance sheet duration reduction adds a premium. The 10-30 curve steepened in the week, and that trend may continue.
  • Underweight AI-heavy tech equities on a tactical basis — the CPI relief rally benefited growth stocks, but Goldman’s “triple resistance” (growth compression, higher cost of capital, PE contraction if rate hike cycle returns) is still a live risk [16]. The AI capex cycle is increasingly seen as inflation-positive [10], which reduces the chance of a sustained dovish pivot.

6. Contrarian & Tail Risks

  • Consensus fragility — BofA’s three-hike forecast vs. the market’s ~20% July hike probability: BofA remains the most hawkish major house; if the CPI is revised or PPI prints hot, the market’s soft-inflation narrative could collapse. BofA’s Q2 GDP tracking at 1.4% weakens the growth case for hikes, but the bank argues policy is too accommodative [22][23].

  • Consensus fragility — Warsh’s “one data point” framing may not survive a second soft print: Warsh deliberately left the door open for another hot CPI by calling this “one data point.” If the next CPI (July) is also soft, his credibility — and the July hike probability — could collapse further, triggering a violent catch-up in rate-cut pricing.

  • Consensus fragility — PPI and PCE still sticky: Core PCE tracking at +3.3% y/y [23] and core PPI forecast at +5.2% y/y [16] are well above target. The disinflation narrative from CPI is entirely energy-driven; the services and food components remain sticky. If PPI surprises hot on July 15, the entire CPI-led rally could reverse.

  • Consensus fragility — AI-driven “inflation at the factory gate”: The Fed’s task force and Warsh’s testimony explicitly cited AI investment as an inflationary source. If this channel re-rates higher in market pricing, the Fed’s zero tolerance looks more credible, and the interest-rate vol tail increases.

  • Second-order — BEA PCE methodology revision (September): Citi identifies this as a potential turning point [33]. If the revision lowers core PCE by 0.1-0.3pp, it could structurally reduce the rate-hike premium and extend the disinflation trade.

  • Second-order — EM carry unwind of crowded positioning: Citi notes that EM FX carry positioning is still more crowded than expected [24]. A sudden Fed hawkish surprise (hot PPI or Warsh escalation) would trigger a sharp carry unwind, tightening financial conditions globally.

  • Second-order — US-Iran conflict binary: Oil above $83 pricing in supply disruption. If attacks escalate further, oil could spike to $90+, re-introducing energy-driven inflation and forcing the Fed to respond. Citi’s commodity team believes a new Iran agreement remains possible — the asymmetry is wide [24].

Appendix: Additional Sources

  • [39] Reuters — 10-year yield touched 4.6358% on Tuesday (pre-CPI) before easing
  • [31] CNBC — Treasury yields rose slightly on Wednesday ahead of PPI
  • [34] WSJ — US-Iran attacks push oil prices elevated
  • [37] 澎湃新闻 — PBOC’s Zou Lan on global central banks
  • [40] 华尔街见闻 — Warsh testimony hawkish
  • [22] BofA — Three-hike forecast, Q2 GDP tracking 1.4%
  • [41] BofA — Inflation curve analysis
  • [23] BofA — Core PCE tracking 3.3% y/y, foreign demand
  • [42] 华尔街见闻 — Warsh independence commitment
  • [29] JPMorgan — Bank of America earnings assume September hike
  • [6] JPMorgan — Feroli analysis of Warsh testimony
  • [7] Goldman — Warsh: zero tolerance, downplayed CPI
  • [20] Deutsche Bank — New Fed communication regime
  • [24] Citi — Soft CPI reduces hike probability, EM carry trade
  • [33] Citi — Dollar positive asymmetry shortening, BEA revision
  • [43] WSJ — Asian currencies supported by CPI
  • [28] WSJ — Bonds and equities rally on CPI and earnings
  • [2] 中金公司 — CPI below expectations, Waller remark analysis, oil rise
  • [18] 格隆汇 — CME FedWatch data July 14
  • [8] 华尔街见闻 — Warsh testimony partially reversed rally
  • [44] Bloomberg — Fed rate hike bets derailed by CPI
  • [45] Daniel Lacalle — Fed has window to hold or cut
  • [46] Andreas Steno — Fed’s next move is a cut
  • [47] Bloomberg — Bond rally on CPI
  • [48] Mohamed El-Erian — Praises Warsh’s communication
  • [14] Financial Juice — Barr on AI inequality
  • [32] 国元证券 — Japan PPI, ECB disinflation, US yields
  • [3] 开源证券 — CPI data reduces hike risk
  • [49] 东方金诚 — CPI peak confirmed
  • [50] Nick Timiraos — Dollar swap lines independent
  • [51] WSJ — Economy solid, housing uneven
  • [12] 格隆汇 — Warsh: economy solid, labor resilient
  • [11] Reuters — Balance sheet changes will be previewed
  • [9] 格隆汇 — Warsh: zero tolerance, no forward guidance
  • [52] Hassett — Core inflation momentum toward target
  • [25] 格隆汇 — CPI below expectations, July hike prob 17%
  • [27] 格隆汇 — Services ex-energy inflation flat
  • [53] Capital Economics — Expects rate hike eventually
  • [30] Financial Juice — BofA CFO expects net positive from hikes
  • [54] Mohamed El-Erian — CPI should temper hawkish tilt
  • [19] 格隆汇 — CME FedWatch data July 14
  • [4] 格隆汇 — 2-year yield down 14bp, July hike prob ~20%
  • [55] WSJ — CPI miss, bond yields drop
  • [5] Bloomberg — CPI cuts July Fed hike bets to 20%
  • [56] Mohamed El-Erian — CPI notably softer
  • [10] Axios — Warsh zero tolerance, Waller hawkish
  • [57] Financial Juice — Traders reduce wagers on July hike
  • [58] Financial Juice — Warsh delivers semiannual report
  • [13] Financial Juice — Task forces to improve policy decisions
  • [59] Financial Juice — Duty to review practices
  • [60] Financial Juice — Monitoring inflation and labor
  • [61] 格隆汇 — CME FedWatch July 15
  • [62] Mohamed El-Erian — Oil surge shaking faith
  • [63] 金十 — BofA survey shows extreme bullish sentiment
  • [64] Bloomberg — EM bonds outperform Treasuries
  • [65] 金十 — CPI scenario analysis
  • [16] 华尔街见闻 — Waller set threshold, CPI preview, Goldman triple resistance
  • [17] Reuters — Waller: hot CPI would trigger near-term hike
  • [35] 天风证券 — FOMC minutes, CPI, VIX, oil
  • [21] 华创证券 — Task force member analysis
  • [36] 华创证券 — Macro data review: WEI, Redbook, mortgage rates, Japan data, etc.

This report is a macro-mechanism analysis, not investment advice.

30-day review of this series 6/18 – 7/18

  • Hawkish FOMC debut and the disinflation counterwave: Chair Warsh’s June meeting—a 9-9 dot-plot tie for 2026 hikes, stripped forward guidance, and sharply higher inflation forecasts—triggered a violent repricing of rate expectations. Over the following weeks, soft June CPI and PPI readings collapsed July hike probability to near 11%, but a wall of Fed speakers (Logan, Jefferson, Schmid) warned against declaring victory, keeping the standoff alive.

  • Labor market softening tests the hawkish consensus: The June payrolls miss of +57k—well below consensus—undermined the “employment overheating” pillar and pushed the first fully priced hike from October to December. Yet the FOMC minutes and subsequent official commentary continued to emphasize inflation persistence, preventing a full dovish pivot.

  • Warsh’s communication overhaul raises volatility: The new chair abolished forward guidance, slashed the FOMC statement to 130 words, and launched five task forces to review communication, balance sheet, and data use. This structural shift made every data release and meeting a “live” event, amplifying market sensitivity to incoming prints.

  • Dollar and rate-path divergence widens: The dollar rallied to a one-year high on the hawkish repricing, then retreated as disinflation data emerged, while BofA’s three-hike forecast stood in stark contrast to market pricing of less than one hike. The gap between institutional forecasts and market pricing remained the widest in the cycle.

  • Global central bank divergence intensifies: The BOJ raised rates to 1.0% and signaled further hikes, the ECB resumed tightening, and the BOE held, while the Fed’s uncertain path created asymmetric cross-currents for EM FX and carry trades, with the yen carry trade reaching 2008-level risk.

Sources65

  1. 国盛宏观：美国6月CPI全线回落的信号 华尔街见闻 Score 61
  2. 中金：通胀降温难掩“预防式”加息风险 中金点睛 Score 61
  3. [开源证券]美国6月CPI点评：对美联储2026加息的担忧或将逐渐退却 内资宏观研究 Score 61
  4. CPI数据低于预期 美联储7月加息押注降至20% 美债价格大涨 格隆汇快讯 Score 61
  5. Treasuries Rally as Cool CPI Data Cuts July Fed Hike Bets to 20% Bloomberg Score 63
  6. 货币政策证词持续三小时：新主席沃什鹰派表态但未提供明确框架 外资研报 Score 61
  7. 美国：沃什称美联储的任务是确保价格飙升“不会扩散” 外资研报 Score 60
  8. 沃什听证首秀释放新政信号，“新美联储通讯社”：强调高通胀零容忍但未暗示利率路径 华尔街见闻 Score 61
  9. 沃什重申坚守2%通胀目标，强调货币政策独立性 格隆汇快讯 Score 61
  10. Fed's Warsh stays mum on rate plans, pledges price stability Axios Score 61
  11. Warsh says markets to get ample notice to any Fed balance sheet changes Reuters Score 62
  12. 沃什：美联储双重使命的两个方面并不冲突 格隆汇快讯 Score 62
  13. Fed's Chair Warsh: The purpose of task forces is to equip the Fed to make better monetary policy decisions, put years of high inflation behind us. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 63
  14. Fed's Barr: Future impact remains uncertain, with AI capable of either narrowing or widening income and wealth inequality. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 62
  15. Fed's Barr: Will Artificial Intelligence Broadly Raise Living Standards or Drive Income and Wealth Inequality? https://www.federalreserve.gov/newseven... Twitter·财经快讯 Score 60
  16. 今夜，全球市场三重大考 36氪 Score 63
  17. Fed's Waller says rate hike may be needed if core inflation stays hot Reuters Score 64
  18. 美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为84.5% 格隆汇快讯 Score 65
  19. CPI数据公布后 美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为83.4% 格隆汇快讯 Score 64
  20. 德意志银行：美联储沟通机制转变下的利率市场展望 外资研报 Score 67
  21. 美联储五大工作组的“大脑” 一瑜中的 Score 62
  22. 美联储政策立场偏松：美银建议今年加息三次 外资研报 Score 68
  23. 美联储前景依然鹰派：通胀高企与强劲经济支撑高收益率 外资研报 Score 65
  24. 花旗宏观策略：增加新兴市场套息交易，平仓利率相对价值交易 外资研报 Score 62
  25. 通胀数据温和，市场下调美联储7月加息预期 格隆汇快讯 Score 62
  26. 六月美国CPI低于预期，短端美债收益率回落，近期加息押注降温；但油价反弹、中东紧张、PPI压力、银行财报分化和AI用电瓶颈仍在约束风险资产的乐观定价。 金十-快讯 Score 61
  27. 美联储关注的服务类通胀指标在6月持平 格隆汇快讯 Score 60
  28. JGBs Mixed; May Track Gains in U.S. Treasurys WSJ Score 61
  29. 美国银行2026年第二季度财报点评：业绩稳健，信贷质量良好，维持超配评级 外资研报 Score 62
  30. Bank of America CFO: We will obviously adjust pricing in each of our segments for any rate hike, but net, we expect that to be a positive. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 62
  31. Treasury yields rise as investors await latest producer price inflation data CNBC Score 65
  32. [国元证券]全球市场周报：受中东局势影响，全球股指走势分化 内资策略报告 Score 60
  33. 花旗全球外汇策略：不对称性得到验证，但持续时间存疑 外资研报 Score 60
  34. U.S. Futures Higher as Inflation Print Boosts Sentiment WSJ Score 61
  35. 加息还是降息？ 开达策略知行 Score 63
  36. 美国红皮书商业零售增速大幅上行——海外周报第148期 一瑜中的 Score 63
  37. 央行：加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，贷款的降速提质可能成为宏观运行的新常态之一 华尔街见闻 Score 65
  38. 央行副行长：预计人民币汇率会继续双向波动 澎湃新闻 Score 63
  39. Mapping the Market: Treasury yields flirt with a breakout that could turn into much more Reuters Score 63
  40. 央行：人民币汇率预计会继续双向波动 华尔街见闻 Score 61
  41. 离岸人民币利率波动率：做多长期波动率日历价差 外资研报 Score 62
  42. 新美联储主席：哪怕总统批评我，也会按数据行动 华尔街见闻 Score 62
  43. Asian Currencies Consolidate; May Be Buoyed by Reduced Fed Rate-Hike Expectations WSJ Score 60
  44. Bond Traders' Big Short Bet in Fed Funds Slammed by CPI Decline Bloomberg Score 65
  45. The Federal Reserve now has a window to hold — and even cut — rates. With disinflation showing up in core CPI, keeping policy closer to a neutral le... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 66
  46. I still think the next move from the Fed is a cut Twitter·宏观市场 Score 64
  47. Wall Street Ditches July Rate-Hike Bets on Suprise Inflation Dip Bloomberg Score 65
  48. Fascinating to see how Federal Reserve Chair Warsh’s clarity and quality of communication elevate the Congressional hearing as a whole, especially as... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 62
  49. [东方金诚]美国2026年6月CPI数据点评：通胀拐点初步显现，年内加息风险明显下降 内资宏观研究 Score 60
  50. Warsh on the dollar swap lines: Those are monetary policy. "Those are independent." Twitter·财经快讯 Score 61
  51. Warsh Says Two Parts of Fed's Mandate 'Not in Conflict' WSJ Score 61
  52. WH Sr. Adviser Hassett: Core inflation momentum headed closer to the Fed's target. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 61
  53. 凯投宏观：美联储加息只是时间问题，而非是否要加息 格隆汇快讯 Score 63
  54. Here's the link to Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's testimony before the Committee on Financial Services of the US House of Representatives. Going throug... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 65
  55. Bond Yields Fall, Stock Futures Climb After CPI Report WSJ Score 65
  56. US CPI inflation came in notably softer than expected across the board (Bloomberg table below). This print should help temper what had become an exces... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 63
  57. 🔴 Traders reduce wagers on Fed rate increase this month. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 61
  58. Fed's Warsh: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/warsh20260714a.htm Twitter·财经快讯 Score 70
  59. Fed's Warsh: Have a duty to take a fresh look at current practices to make sure we are serving our objectives. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 65
  60. Fed's Chair Warsh: The Fed is monitoring implications for inflation and the labor market. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 70
  61. CPI数据公布前 美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为63.1% 格隆汇快讯 Score 64
  62. This Bloomberg chart follows yesterday’s post regarding markets pricing in a more hawkish path for Fed policy, including a "live" July meeting. Under... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 68
  63. 美银调查显示，全球投资者情绪已达“极度看涨”的反向警戒水位。地缘冲突引发的通胀风险迫使美联储重拾鹰派立场，历史规律预示美股或面临10%以上的深度回调。点... 金十-快讯 Score 63
  64. Emerging Bond Returns Beating Treasuries as Carry Trades Boom Bloomberg Score 62
  65. 市场正等待美国CPI出炉，决定市场方向的将是核心CPI环比是否偏离市场预期。不同结果对应美元、黄金、美股的表现可能截然不同，七种情景值得提前了解。一图看懂！ 金十-快讯 Score 63