· Thursday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
〈PPI Disinflation Bolsters Hold Case, but Warsh and Cook Push Back on "Mission Accomplished"; July Hike Probability Collapses to ~11%〉
June PPI fell 0.3% m/m, well below expectations, reinforcing the disinflation narrative and collapsing the July hike probability to ~11%, but Fed Chair Warsh's testimony emphasized the inflation fight is "far from over," and Governor Cook warned that risks have shifted toward higher inflation — leaving the policy narrative in a tug-of-war between data and rhetoric; the Beige Book confirmed moderate economic expansion but with rising cost pressures and consumer pullback.
〈U.S. Strikes / Blockade Escalate; Iran Vows 'Existential War'; Strait Near Halt; Brent Breaches $85〉
The U.S.-Iran conflict has entered a new, more dangerous phase: the U.S. launched a fifth day of strikes — including the first attack on a tanker and expanding the target set north toward Tehran — while Iran retaliated on Kuwait and Jordan and vowed to halt all Middle East energy exports; the interim deal is dead, Strait traffic is near a standstill, and Brent crude held above $85/bbl, but with emergency buffer stocks nearly exhausted, the market faces a structurally weaker cushion than at any point in the war.