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〈Waller Triggers a Hawkish Pivot — July Hike Probability Surges to ~50%, CPI and Warsh Testimony as Binary Catalyst〉

Fed Governor Waller's hawkish speech — explicitly linking another hot core inflation print to a near-term rate hike — pushed July hike probability from <10% to ~50% and the 2-year yield to a year-high 4.28%, while Brent crude surged ~10% on escalating US-Iran hostilities; all eyes are on today's June CPI and Warsh's congressional debut as the binary catalysts.

62 sources ~49 min

0. Weekly Arc

The week started with the June payrolls miss (57k) still anchoring a dovish repricing. By July 13, Fed Governor Waller delivered his most explicit hawkish signal to date — “rate hike should be on the table if this week’s inflation data come in hot” — sending July hike probability surging from <10% to ~50% and the 2-year yield to a year-high 4.28% [1][2][3][4][5]. Brent crude spiked ~10% on renewed US-Iran hostilities [1][2][3], reinforcing the hawkish repricing. The arc ends with a binary setup: today’s June CPI data, Warsh’s first congressional testimony, and major bank earnings all coincide.

1. Policy Narrative & Expectations

The net change over the past ~24h is a sharp hawkish repricing driven by Fed Governor Waller’s explicit hawkish signal on July 13. Waller stated that if this week’s core inflation reading is “hot,” the FOMC will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term, his clearest signal yet that he could support a July move [6][5][7][8]. The market-implied probability of a July rate hike surged from <10% to ~50% [1][2][3]. The 2-year yield touched 4.28%, the highest in over a year [1][2][3][4]. Brent crude spiked ~10% on escalating US-Iran hostilities [1][2][3], adding an energy-shock inflation tail. The binary catalyst is today’s June CPI data (released 8:30 AM EST) [9][10][11][12], with Waller explicitly setting the reaction-function threshold, followed by Chair Warsh’s debut congressional testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday [13][2][14].

1.1 FOMC Officials’ Remarks

  • [ESCALATED] Hawkish — Christopher Waller (Fed Governor, July 13 speech): Waller delivered his most explicit hawkish signal to date. Key remarks: (1) “If we get another hot reading on core inflation this week, then the FOMC will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term” [7][8]; (2) His clearest signal yet that he could support a July move — “rate hike should be on the table if this week’s inflation data come in hot” [6][5]; (3) “If I get another higher inflation print, I will treat that as a signal, not noise” [15][16]; (4) Equally plausible case that data “will show that inflation will remain at its elevated level or even trend higher, requiring tighter monetary policy” [17][8]; (5) “However you measure it, inflation is rising this year” — core PCE at 3.4% for the year through May, rising since January [4][11]; (6) If inflation readings come in lower, he needs “several months of lower readings” to be convinced the trend is changing [11][8]; (7) “Sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze is not an option” [8]; (8) Tariffs, energy costs, and AI-driven demand are the inflation drivers [18]; (9) Suggesting a 1.5%-2.5% inflation range as a target may be reasonable [19][20][21]; (10) If AI were to pull back, financial conditions would change significantly [22]; (11) The unemployment rate “has been very stable” and best indicates a balanced labor market [23][24]. Marginal shift vs prior history: This is a material escalation from prior briefings. Waller’s July 7 speech was a balanced assessment of forward guidance; his July 13 speech is a direct, near-term hawkish signal. The explicit “July move on the table” language is new and the strongest signal from any Fed official in this cycle.

  • [ONGOING] Dovish — Kevin Warsh (Chair): Warsh has not spoken about inflation expectations with the same urgency as his colleagues, and has emphasized focusing on inflation “to the left of the decimal point” — indicating tolerance for inflation slightly above 2% [25]. No new remarks today. His congressional testimony begins today [13][2][14].

  • [NEW] Dovish — Kevin Warsh (Chair, via policy signals): Warsh’s task force appointments, announced July 10, include members who overall favor reduced emphasis on precise rate-path guidance and greater transparency on forecast limitations — a dovish-leaning communication reform agenda [26][27]. The group includes Mervyn King (communications), Greg Mankiw (inflation framework, opposes precise 2% target), and Karen Dynan (balance sheet) [26].

1.2 Policy Signals & Institutional Communication

  • [ESCALATED] Market pricing — July hike probability surged to ~50%: Following Waller’s speech, the market-implied probability of a July rate hike jumped from less than 10% to about 45-50% [1][3][4][28][29][30]. Fed funds futures pricing now implies ~45% probability of a July hike, up from 35% earlier Monday [29]. The 2-year yield rose ~7.8bp to 4.282%, the highest since early 2025 [3][11][4].

  • [NEW] Deutsche Bank survey — strong consensus for 50bp hike this year: Survey of ~30 institutional investors in Asia shows a strong consensus for a 50bp Fed rate hike this year, neutral bond duration stance with an upside yield bias, and interest in AI’s inflationary impact [31]. Investors are watching Warsh and his inflation task force, uncertain about his policy approach [31].

  • [NEW] BofA July Global Fund Manager Survey — sell signal triggered: Cash levels dropped from 4.1% to 3.6%, triggering BofA’s sell signal (cash ≤4.0%) [32][33]. A record 54% expect a “no-landing” economic outcome [32][33]. 82% say long semiconductors is the most crowded trade [32]. 45% see an AI bubble as the biggest tail risk [32]. Equity overweight rose to net 24%, the highest since December 2024 [32].

  • [NEW] BofA — Fed hawkish risk underpriced: BofA expects the Fed to hike 25bp in September, October, and December 2026, taking the fed funds rate to 4.50% [34]. It sees the 2-year yield targeting 4.40% [35]. The market only prices ~43bp of hiking for 2026 [35]. BofA recommends shorting front-end rates and flattening the 2s10s curve [34].

  • [ONGOING] FOMC minutes (June 16-17): Showed that half of the 18 officials expect at least one hike in 2026 [1][2]. Many participants cited AI-driven demand as contributing to persistent inflation [36]. The minutes were hawkish [37][38].

  • [ONGOING] Fed RMP program: The Fed will buy about $10 billion of Treasury bills this period, unchanged from prior cycles, to bolster reserves [39].

2. Key Data & Market Read

  • [NEW] June CPI (released today July 14 at 8:30 AM EST): Market expectations: headline CPI month-on-month between -0.2% and 0.0% (first monthly decline since 2020), year-over-year slowing to ~3.8% from 4.2% [2][3][37][8][38]. Core CPI month-on-month expected at 0.2%-0.23%, year-over-year ~2.8% (down from 2.9%) [37][38]. Goldman Sachs forecasts core CPI +0.17% m/m, below consensus of 0.2% [1][2]. JPMorgan forecasts headline CPI -0.16% m/m, below consensus [40]. Cleveland Fed Nowcast model gives an upside risk — it projects June CPI year-over-year near 4%, vs market consensus of ~3.5% [41]. Narrative impact: Waller explicitly set the binary threshold — a “hot” core print triggers near-term tightening consideration [7][8]; a soft print would require several months of low readings to change his view [11][8]. The Cleveland Fed model suggests an asymmetric upside risk [41].

  • [NEW] May PCE (prior data): Core PCE at 3.4% year-over-year through May, rising since January [4][11]. Waller cited this as evidence that “however you measure it, inflation is rising this year” [4][11].

  • [NEW] Core PCE forecast (Goldman Sachs): Goldman forecasts core PCE averaging 0.23% m/m over the next three months, with services inflation sticky [2][42].

  • [NEW] New York Fed Consumer Inflation Expectations (June): One-year inflation expectations rose to 3.7% (highest since September 2023); three-year rose to 3.3% [37][38].

  • [NEW] June nonfarm payrolls (released July 2): +57k, well below consensus, confirming labor market cooling [41][14]. Hiring rate at its lowest since April 2020 [43].

  • [NEW] Q2 GDP tracking: Goldman Sachs’ US Current Activity Index (CAI) edged down 0.1pp to +2.5% in June [44].

  • [NEW] June ISM Manufacturing PMI: Rose to 53.3, in expansion for the sixth consecutive month, but driven by new orders and supplier delivery lead times — reflecting precautionary restocking, not underlying demand recovery [1][43].

  • [NEW] Existing home sales (June): Missed expectations significantly [38].

3. Financial-Conditions Signals

  • [NEW] Dollar & rates — 2-year yield at year-high 4.28%: Following Waller’s speech, the 2-year yield surged ~7.8bp to 4.282%, the highest since early 2025 [1][3][4][11]. The 10-year yield rose ~5.2bp to 4.6156% [9][11][38]. The 30-year yield rose to 5.1093% [9]. The curve flattened as front-end yields rose faster [45][40]. BofA raised its 2-year yield short target from 4.25% to 4.40% [35].

  • [NEW] Dollar & rates — July hike probability at ~50%: Fed funds futures now imply a 42-50% probability of a rate hike at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, up from <10% prior to Waller’s speech [3][28][29][30].

  • [NEW] Dollar & rates — BofA Bull & Bear Indicator at sell-signal 9.5: BofA’s indicator is at an extreme level, suggesting market over-optimism [34].

  • [NEW] Liquidity — cash at 3.6% triggers sell signal: The BofA Global Fund Manager Survey shows cash allocation dropping to 3.6%, triggering a contrarian sell signal [32][33]. Historically, this signal is followed by global equity declines of 0.8%-1.1% over two weeks [32].

  • [NEW] Dollar & rates — Goldman: oil re-emerges as cross-asset pricing driver: Oil has become the key variable driving cross-asset returns, with US yields and currencies now moving in sync with oil prices [46]. Stock prices’ sensitivity to oil has increased due to the Fed’s hawkish repricing [46].

  • [NEW] Dollar & rates — 5y5y inflation swap near historical low: At ~2.38%, it’s close to post-conflict “growth panic” levels and about 10bp below Goldman’s model-implied fair value [47]. Goldman says this reflects lower market concern about the Fed falling “behind the curve” [47].

  • [NEW] Dollar & rates — US real yields at highest since 2023: This reflects the hawkish repricing of the rate path [10].

  • [NEW] Dollar — USD positioning at historical highs: USD positions have risen to historical highs, making the currency vulnerable to a data-driven unwind [48].

4. Global Central-Bank Linkages

  • [ESCALATED] ECB — global tightening cycle: The ECB hiked 25bp on June 11 and announced a reduction in APP reinvestments, planning to stop ~€500 billion of bond reinvestments within the year — a “hike + QT” combination [49]. Barclays expects a 25bp ECB hike in September [2].

  • [ESCALATED] BOJ — hike to 1.0%: The BOJ raised its policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0% on June 16, the highest in 31 years, in response to yen weakness and domestically-driven inflation [50][49].

  • [NEW] Bank of Korea — expected to start hiking next week: JPMorgan expects the Bank of Korea to hike 25bp to 2.75% in the week of July 20 [51].

  • [NEW] Bank of Canada — expected to hold: The BoC is expected to maintain rates, as the labor market still has slack [51].

5. Asset Implications

This section is inference — no [N]. Anchored to the facts above.

QuadrantCurrent probability tiltKey asset implicationAnchoring narrative
Growth↑ + Inflation↑Rising sharplyOil↑ nominal bonds↓ equities↓ (AI stocks most vulnerable); Waller’s explicit hawkish signal + oil surge + BofA sell signal = stagflationary repricing; 2-year at 4.28% is the clearest expression; BofA’s 10-year target 4.65%-4.82%§1.1 (Waller: July hike on table, treat hot CPI as signal); §1.2 (BofA sell signal, 43bp hike pricing too low, Bull & Bear at 9.5); §2 (oil +10%, Cleveland Fed CPI model at 4% vs consensus 3.5%); §3 (2-year at year-high 4.28%, 10-year at 4.62%)
Growth↑ + Inflation↓Falling sharplyThe “Goldilocks” window has nearly closed; Waller’s demand for “several months of lower readings” to change his view means even a soft CPI today would not fully collapse the hawkish repricing; the BofA sell signal and record “no-landing” consensus are the fragilities§1.1 (Waller: needs months of low readings); §1.2 (BofA: 83% expect no hike before midterm election — consensus is fragile); §2 (Goldman forecasts core CPI 0.17%, below consensus); §3 (BofA Bull & Bear at sell signal)
Growth↓ + Inflation↑RisingStagflation tail is the base case for risk parity: oil-driven inflation + cooling payrolls (57k) + Fed forced to hike; BofA’s 10-year target 4.65%-4.82% implies both stocks and bonds sell off; Goldman’s “triple resistance” from a rate hike cycle — growth compression, capital cost increase, 6% PE contraction — would hit equities hard§1.1 (Waller: tariffs, energy, AI inflation; equally likely case of tighter policy); §1.2 (BofA: three hikes, Bull & Bear sell signal); §2 (payrolls 57k miss, ISM driven by precautionary restocking, not demand); §3 (oil +10%, gold fell 3% on dollar/rates)
Growth↓ + Inflation↓FallingLong-duration bonds would benefit from recession fears, but Waller’s threshold is high: several months of low readings needed; the Cleveland Fed model suggests CPI upside risk — current pricing is asymmetric to the hawkish side; CICC still sees “disinflation trade returning in H2” but it’s a contrarian call now§1.1 (Waller: needs months of low readings); §2 (Cleveland Fed model: CPI at 4% vs consensus 3.5% — asymmetric risk); §1.2 (CICC: market may be too pessimistic on rate hikes); §3 (5y5y inflation swap 10bp below fair value — cheap inflation hedge)

Stock-bond correlation call: The regime has decisively shifted toward positive correlation (inflation-driven) within the past 24 hours. Waller’s explicit hawkish signal — “July hike on the table” — combined with the ~10% oil spike on US-Iran escalation, has created a scenario where both stocks and bonds sell off simultaneously. The 2-year yield surging to a year-high 4.28% and the 10-year at 4.62% are consistent with a hawkish repricing driven by both energy-supply and demand-pull (AI) inflation. The S&P 500 fell 0.8% and the Nasdaq fell 1.5%, while the SOX semiconductor index dropped ~5% on July 13 [4][11][29]. This is a classic positive-correlation regime — the worst outcome for risk parity.

However, today’s CPI print (8:30 AM EST) is the binary catalyst. A significantly soft core CPI (below 0.17% m/m, per Goldman’s below-consensus forecast) could partially reverse the hawkish repricing, pushing the correlation structure back toward negative (growth-driven). But Waller’s demand for “several months of lower readings” to be convinced [11][8] means even a soft CPI today would not fully collapse the hike premium — the burden of proof is on the doves. The Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast model [41] suggests an asymmetric upside CPI risk, reinforcing the positive-correlation regime bias.

Risk-budget implication:

  • Underweight nominal duration entirely — BofA recommends shorting front-end rates with a 2-year target of 4.40% [35], flattening the 2s10s curve [34], and sets a 10-year target of 4.65%-4.82% [34]. JPMorgan recommends closing 10s/30s flatteners ahead of CPI [45][40]. The 2-year yield is at a year-high 4.28% [1][3][4], and the market pricing of 43bp of hiking is well below BofA’s 75bp three-hike forecast [35][34].
  • Overweight 2s10s flatteners — BofA recommends flattening the curve [34]. Front-end yields should rise faster than long-end if the Fed begins a hiking cycle. The 10-year at 4.62% and 30-year at 5.11% are already elevated on supply fears — the front end has room to catch up.
  • Overweight long-duration TIPS as a tactical hedge — US real yields are at their highest since 2023 [10]. Goldman’s 12-month gold target of $5,115/oz [46] and the 5y5y inflation swap 10bp below fair value [47] suggest real yields could mean-revert if the disinflation narrative returns. This is a contrarian position: size it with a stop.
  • Underweight semiconductors / AI-heavy equities — BofA’s sell signal [32][33] is triggered by record-low cash. 82% of fund managers say long semiconductors is the most crowded trade [32]. The SOX index fell ~5% on July 13 [11], and BofA notes 45% see an AI bubble as the biggest tail risk [32]. Goldman warns a rate hike cycle would be “triple resistance” for equities — growth compression, higher cost of capital, and 6% PE contraction [1][2][52].
  • Overweight gold tactically with a caveat — gold fell ~3% on July 13, breaking below $4,000/oz for the first time in July [4][38], pressured by the dollar and rising real yields. But Goldman’s 12-month target of $5,115 [46] and CICC’s view that the gold bull market “is not over” [43] create a favorable asymmetry near $4,000. The Fed’s credibility anchoring long-term inflation expectations [47] is positive for gold as a hedge against the stagflationary tail.
  • Underweight the USD from a structural perspective — USD positioning is at historical highs [48], making it vulnerable to a soft CPI. JPMorgan forecasts DXY at 102.2 by end-2026 [53]. Goldman recommends hedging with bonds and JPY [46]. However, the hawkish repricing supports the dollar in the near term — a short USD position should be hedged with long FX vol.

6. Contrarian & Tail Risks

  • Consensus fragility — Waller’s explicit July threat has not been fully priced: Market-implied July hike probability at 42-50% [3][28][29][30] still implies a coin flip. BofA expects 75bp of hikes through December [35][34]. If today’s CPI is hot (>0.3% core m/m per BofA’s threshold [35]), July hike probability would surge above 70%, and the 2-year yield would jump toward 4.40% — BofA’s target [35]. This would trigger a violent unwind of the “no-landing, no rate hike” consensus that 54% of fund managers currently hold [32][33].

  • Consensus fragility — BofA’s sell signal at 9.5: BofA’s Bull & Bear Indicator is at 9.5, an extreme “sell” signal [34]. The fund manager survey shows cash at 3.6% — below the 4% sell trigger [32][33]. History suggests a 0.8%-1.1% global equity decline over two weeks following such signals [32].

  • Consensus fragility — Cleveland Fed vs. consensus CPI: The Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast model projects June CPI year-over-year near 4%, while consensus is ~3.5% [41]. A 4% headline print would be a “hot” reading by Waller’s definition [7][8] and would validate his hawkish signal, likely triggering a July hike.

  • Consensus fragility — the BofA fund manager survey shows extreme positioning: Record 54% expect “no landing” [32][33]. 82% say long semiconductors is the most crowded trade [32]. 45% see an AI bubble as the biggest tail risk [32]. Equity overweight at net 24% is the highest since December 2024 [32]. This combination — extreme consensus, crowded positioning, and a stated tail risk — is the classic setup for a violent reversal. The BofA sell signal provides the timing trigger.

  • Second-order — oil-driven stagflationary spiral: The Strait of Hormuz commercial transits collapsed to just 3 in 24 hours, down from 57 at peak [3]. Brent crude spiked ~10% on July 13 [1][2][3]. If the escalation continues, oil could push toward JPMorgan’s H2 average of $83/bbl [51], adding persistent energy-inflation pressure that would force the Fed’s hand and validate Waller’s most hawkish scenario.

  • Second-order — JGB spillover risk: JGB market volatility is seen as a key risk that could break the US Treasury yield range in a sell-off [31]. The BOJ’s June hike to 1.0% [49] and rising JGB long-end yields put upward pressure on US long-end yields, preventing the 10s/30s curve from mean-reverting [40]. A full-blown JGB sell-off would spill into USTs through the carry trade unwind.

  • Second-order — AI capex sensitivity to rate hikes: Goldman notes that the current AI-led investment cycle has “exceptionally high capital intensity,” making it more sensitive to higher financing costs [2][52]. Waller warned that “if AI were to pop or pull back, financial conditions would change significantly” [22]. The record 82% crowding in semiconductors [32] means any AI capex pullback would cause a concentrated unwind.

  • Source quality control: Waller’s July 13 speech is sourced from multiple primary English wires (Bloomberg [7], New York Times [8]) and secondary sources (Wall Street Journal [28], CNBC [9], 华尔街见闻 [1][2][11]). The “July hike on the table” quote is confirmed by multiple sources [6][5]. The Strait of Hormuz transit collapse [3] is from a single Chinese source (金十数据) but the oil price spike is confirmed by Reuters [25] and Bloomberg [7]. The Cleveland Fed model [41] is official. The BofA fund manager survey [32][33] is primary institutional research.

Appendix: Additional Sources

  • [31] Deutsche Bank — Asia investor survey: strong consensus for 50bp hike, JGB spillover risk
  • [25] Reuters — Warsh testimony preview, money supply mention
  • [54] Bloomberg — S&P 500 expected to swing 0.7% on CPI/earnings/Fed day
  • [55] WSJ — Oil climbs on Iran war escalation, CPI required, stock futures muted
  • [46] Goldman — Momentum factor sell-off worst since early 2000s, oil re-emerges as cross-asset driver, hedge with bonds/JPY, use put-spread collar
  • [47] Goldman — 5y5y inflation swap 10bp below fair value, recommended as hedge, not outright long; recommend long 3y SOFR swap spread
  • [51] JPMorgan — Oil averaged $83/bbl in H2 2026, Korea to hike next week, BOJ hike, extreme El Nino probability raised to 81%
  • [53] JPMorgan — Fed on hold for 2026 but yields have upside risk, tactical long EU duration, long USD/EM FX, long-term long gold, winter natural gas risk
  • [48] 金十数据 — USD positioning at historical highs, CPI determines dollar direction
  • [26] 华尔街见闻 — Warsh task force leadership details; overall dovish-leaning on communication reform
  • [43] CICC — Market may be too pessimistic on rate hikes; disinflation trade may return in H2; gold bull not over; add gold, metals
  • [37] 第一财经 — CPI preview, Waller hawkish, market pricing rate hike risk
  • [56] Mohamed El-Erian — Waller’s hawkish speech increased market rate hike expectations
  • [52] 格隆汇 — Goldman: profitability is S&P 500 driver but rate hikes create triple resistance (growth, cost of capital, PE contraction)
  • [57] Mohamed El-Erian — US 10-year at 4.60%
  • [8] New York Times — Waller: rate hike on table if hot CPI; needs months of low readings to change view
  • [58] Jack Farley — Waller speech scheduled
  • [59] Financial Juice — Waller scheduled to speak July 13 at 12:30 ET
  • [12] Daniel Lacalle — CPI release preview, Truflation model
  • [27] 开源证券 — Warsh task forces may delay rate hikes in 2026
  • [41] 华尔街见闻 — Credit quality signals from banks may precede official data; Cleveland Fed model vs consensus CPI gap
  • [60] 长江证券 — No stagflation, recovery is emerging; supply shock insufficient, inflation expectations anchored; risk: oil escalation exceeds expectations
  • [61] IPP评论 — Warsh’s Treasury-Fed accord framework, SLR reform, stablecoin demand for USTs
  • [62] WSJ — Treasury yields rise but retreat from highs, dollar steady
  • [38] 东吴证券 — Warsh task forces, CPI preview, hawkish FOMC minutes, global tightening cycle

This report is a macro-mechanism analysis, not investment advice.

30-day review of this series 6/18 – 7/18

  • Hawkish FOMC debut and the disinflation counterwave: Chair Warsh’s June meeting—a 9-9 dot-plot tie for 2026 hikes, stripped forward guidance, and sharply higher inflation forecasts—triggered a violent repricing of rate expectations. Over the following weeks, soft June CPI and PPI readings collapsed July hike probability to near 11%, but a wall of Fed speakers (Logan, Jefferson, Schmid) warned against declaring victory, keeping the standoff alive.

  • Labor market softening tests the hawkish consensus: The June payrolls miss of +57k—well below consensus—undermined the “employment overheating” pillar and pushed the first fully priced hike from October to December. Yet the FOMC minutes and subsequent official commentary continued to emphasize inflation persistence, preventing a full dovish pivot.

  • Warsh’s communication overhaul raises volatility: The new chair abolished forward guidance, slashed the FOMC statement to 130 words, and launched five task forces to review communication, balance sheet, and data use. This structural shift made every data release and meeting a “live” event, amplifying market sensitivity to incoming prints.

  • Dollar and rate-path divergence widens: The dollar rallied to a one-year high on the hawkish repricing, then retreated as disinflation data emerged, while BofA’s three-hike forecast stood in stark contrast to market pricing of less than one hike. The gap between institutional forecasts and market pricing remained the widest in the cycle.

  • Global central bank divergence intensifies: The BOJ raised rates to 1.0% and signaled further hikes, the ECB resumed tightening, and the BOE held, while the Fed’s uncertain path created asymmetric cross-currents for EM FX and carry trades, with the yen carry trade reaching 2008-level risk.

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  29. 🔴 US short-term interest-rate futures price about 45% chance of July Fed rate hike, up from 35% earlier Monday. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 62
  30. 格隆汇7月14日｜市场定价显示交易员预计美联储本月加息的概率为50%。 格隆汇快讯 Score 61
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  39. Fed Maintains Reserve Management Purchases at $10 Billion Bloomberg Score 61
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  42. 美国：沃勒表示若本周核心通胀数据强劲，FOMC将考虑加息 外资研报 Score 64
  43. 中金 | 资产配置：K型分化开始收敛了吗？ 中金点睛 Score 62
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  46. 微观与宏观逆风：尽管股市平稳，动量因子大幅 unwind 外资研报 Score 60
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  48. 决战CPI！整体读数或降温，核心粘性才是市场真正的胜负手；美元仓位升至历史高位区间，CPI数据将决定美元是继续冲高还是阶段性回落。 金十-快讯 Score 61
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  50. 黄金近期调整到位了吗？长期看预算赤字 虎嗅 Score 63
  51. 全球经济日报：美联储加息风险上升，中东局势推高油价 外资研报 Score 66
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  54. Pricey Stocks Charge Into CPI, Earnings and Fed, All in One Day Bloomberg Score 61
  55. Stock Market Today: Oil Climbs, Investors Await Bank Earnings, CPI Report -- Live Updates WSJ Score 60
  56. Here are some of the key paragraphs from the speech by Fed Governor Chris Waller, which struck markets as quite hawkish (link below). This has two imm... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 66
  57. Further to earlier posts, here is the government bond market's reaction to higher oil prices. This includes: The US 10-year at 4.60%; The UK 10-year a... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 60
  58. RT Federal Reserve: Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20260713a.htm Watch live... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 66
  59. JOIN LIVE: Fed's Waller Speaks 12:30 ET https://onemetlife.webex.com/wbxmjs/joinservice/sites/onemetlife/meeting/download/2f5442cff4204f1788f862edeb00... Twitter·财经快讯 Score 65
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  62. U.S. Treasury Yields Edge Higher but Off Day's Peaks WSJ Score 63