· Saturday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Waller's hawkish shift hardens as the Treasury market flips from shock absorber to amplifier
Citi's read that Waller now backs at least two more 25bp hikes kept the hawkish official tone intact, but the day's more consequential signal is the market-structure one — the WSJ's finding that the Treasury market is now working in reverse, alongside Reuters' warning that options, convexity and term-premium signals point to another leg higher in yields .
Hormuz freight hits a record ~$1.4mn/day as tanker attacks set a wartime high and flows slide to 8 Mb/d
The physical and cost layers escalated hard — Hormuz freight hit a record of nearly $1.4 million a day with more than 40% of the world's VLCCs pulled into the Gulf , IMO data counted 11 tankers struck in the week to Oct. 4 plus five more this week , and UBS put Hormuz flows at 8 Mb/d against 13 Mb/d a week earlier — even as Brent fell $1.68 to $102.6 and WTI $1.31 to $90.18 on Trump's pre-midterm no-attack pledge and China's returning product exports .