· Friday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Musalem opens a 6–9 month hawkish window as the minutes show no rush; the term premium reasserts itself
October pricing held near an 82% hold while Waller and Musalem hardened the year-end hike case and the term premium — not the expected policy path — became the market's most-debated variable .
Brent tops $105 as Iran's Hormuz attacks hit a wartime high and a reported Pentagon strike option lands
Oil jumped about 5% to above $105 on Thursday , with WTI near $93 and European diesel up over 10% to $197 a barrel , after a tanker was struck near Qatar with casualties deep inside the Persian Gulf , the Houthis hit Riyadh for a third straight day , and last week produced the most tanker attacks since the war began — against a reported Pentagon three-day strike option on Iran , Trump's statement that the US will not attack Iran before the midterms , and Kpler data showing crude through the strait halving between 10/02 and 10/05 .