· Sunday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
October priced out near a fifth as record cash piles up and term premium owns the long end
Money markets now price only a 19% chance of a hike at the Oct 28 meeting against a fully priced 25bp December move, while a record $166.4bn weekly inflow into cash and a BofA survey showing the long-end driver has migrated from central-bank repricing to term premium leave duration — not the Fed's next meeting — as the dominant cross-asset variable .
US disables a cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman as the IRGC mines a VLCC leaving Hormuz and US–Israeli strike talks resurface
Escalation returned on the physical layer — US forces disabled a Panama-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman in the first publicly acknowledged US use of force against a commercial vessel in over a month , Iran's IRGC Navy said a non-compliant crude-laden VLCC struck a mine leaving Hormuz on an unauthorized lane and was burning , and Israeli sources reported frequent, urgent Trump–Netanyahu talks about a possible renewed US–Israeli strike on Iran — even as UKMTO logged the 16th attack in Hormuz and the wider Gulf in 11 days, which Rory Johnston reads as the heaviest attack pace of the war slowing the flow recovery, with more than 10 MMbpd still clearing the Strait .