· Monday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
October hike odds firm near a fifth into the minutes; December stays the base case and the long end keeps leading
The near-term dovish repricing consolidated at roughly a fifth for October while December remains the investment-bank base case on the energy shock, yet the two-week leader in global rates was still the US long end and crude and Treasuries are locked in their tightest relationship since the 1990 Gulf war — the clearest sign that duration is trading something a soft payroll print cannot fix .
Kpler counts four above-prewar export days as a fresh attack wave and IRGC turn-around orders threaten the flow
Preliminary Kpler data released Monday shows Middle East crude exports exceeding pre-Iran-war levels on four of the seven days of the final week of September, spiking to 19.5–22.5 million bpd, with Hormuz LNG transits at their highest monthly level since February — but UKMTO has logged seven strikes on vessels around the waterway since Sept 28 plus another on Sunday , the IRGC ordered a tanker to turn around or be attacked about 11 nautical miles north of Khasab , and December Brent fell to $101.59 as traders weighed the G-7 emergency release against the renewed attacks .