· Tuesday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
October odds hold near a fifth as long-end yields set fresh 24-year highs; the minutes and services ISM are next
The near-term dovish repricing consolidated at roughly a fifth for October while the long end printed fresh 24-year highs, the 30-year pressed toward 6% and the dollar reached its strongest since April 2025 — keeping duration, not the Fed's next move, the dominant cross-asset variable into this week's September minutes .
Yemen's Red Sea front erupts as Bab el-Mandeb changes hands and Aramco warns inventories are "scarily thin"
The Saudi-backed Yemeni government launched a large-scale, multi-front offensive ("Yemen Dawn") against the Houthis and claimed full control of the Bab el-Mandeb and Mayun Island while the Houthis fired three rounds of missiles and drones at Riyadh's King Khalid airport, the Rabigh Aramco refinery and other Saudi targets , at least eight tankers have been attacked around Hormuz since last Monday , Kpler shows the region's crude exports above prewar levels on 14 days in September — yet Brent December fell 0.4% to $99.88 on Tuesday as Aramco's Amin Nasser warned global commercial stocks are below 6 billion barrels and refilling could take up to two years .