· Sunday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Hike-urgency fades into the Fed and ECB minutes; October option "nearly off the table" while the long end keeps climbing
US money markets cut the October hike probability to about 18% on Friday from 70% just days earlier and both the Fed's and the ECB's urgency to follow up September has been dialed back on soft payrolls and acute French market stress, yet the long end still printed multi-decade highs and the sell-side keeps only a conditional December option alive .
Hegseth claims Hormuz oil flows now exceed prewar levels as Kpler flags a possible 10–20% cargo toll and Johnston calls the framing "purposefully misleading"
The day's marginal information is a claim and its rebuttal rather than a barrel — US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth says more oil is transiting the Strait of Hormuz today than before the conflict started, with Russian, Venezuelan and Canadian crude now using the waterway — while Kpler's head of policy and geopolitical risk, Michelle Brohard, describes a possible toll paid to Iran of 10–20% of each cargo (flagged as "just my speculation") and calls the escorts-plus-fee arrangement "unsustainable" , and analyst Rory Johnston labels the record-flow framing "purposefully misleading" because that flow has come at extremely high cost and early data already looks to be wavering .