· Monday
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Post-hike Monday: yields ease as oil falls, Kashkari says inflation has spread economy-wide
The marginal shift is a widening two-sided split rather than a new policy fact — Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley now argue the market overprices the hike path while Bank of America and Morgan Stanley's own hike call stay hawkish, Chair Warsh's lever is described as the balance sheet rather than the funds rate, and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said inflation has "permeated every part of the economy" while Monday's tape delivered the first relief session of the cycle with the 10-year down 5bp to 4.95% and Brent down 2.4% .
Iran warns of an imminent US attack as Trump weighs "wiping Iran out" and Brent slides for a fourth session
The war-of-words re-hardened on both sides over the weekend — Tehran said it had intelligence of a coming US-led offensive and threatened sustained retaliation, while Trump said his options were "wiping Iran out" or letting Iran's economy "rot" — yet the physical tape kept softening, with Brent down 1.7% to $102.15 on a fourth straight down session as flow reports improved even as visible Hormuz transits fell to about a dozen from 35 a weekend earlier .