· Friday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Waller's conditional hold-tilt halves September hike odds to a coin flip; Treasuries ease from the peak and gold rebounds
Waller's 9/3 remarks — "If there is continued progress toward our 2% goal, then I am willing to support holding the policy rate at its current level" — pulled September hike pricing from roughly 60–70% earlier in the week to about even , bull-steepening Treasuries off Wednesday's 4.81% peak , weakening the dollar and lifting gold ~2% off a near-four-week low , with the Sept-11 CPI now the named arbiter .
Crude heads for biggest weekly gain since mid-July as US–Iran strikes persist and Hormuz flow data stay contested
Oil is set for its largest weekly advance since the week ended July 20 — Brent +7.1% to $95.67 and WTI +9.8% to $91.56 — as renewed US–Iran exchanges keep supply risk bid, US diesel prints a record $5.85 a gallon, and Washington's claim of wartime-record Hormuz flows collides with tracker data showing traffic near a standstill; experts see no imminent US–Iran deal .