· Monday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Hawkish consolidation after Jackson Hole: September odds hold in the 56–60% band, Barclays flips to two hikes, dollar firms while gold's debasement trade pauses
Warsh's Jackson Hole debut left September hike odds in a ~56–60% band and split the Street — Barclays now expects two 2026 hikes while Morgan Stanley and Nomura read the hawkish turn as optionality and tactics — with August payrolls and CPI set to arbitrate the follow-through .
US strikes IRGC sites on Larak Island, Iran retaliates with missiles, Brent tops $90
The US bombed two IRGC facilities on Larak Island — its first use of force against Iran in over a month — and the IRGC said it fired missiles at a US base, pushing Brent briefly above $90 ; Hormuz transit eased only marginally (152 vessels, +39.4% w/w) with no sustained trend, keeping MEG-China VLCC rates at records .