· Thursday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Hot July PCE lifts September hike odds into the ~36–44% band; Barclays counters the term-premium consensus with an underpriced rate path; Warsh's Jackson Hole debut is the arbiter
Hotter-than-expected July headline PCE (3.7% y/y vs 3.6% consensus) lifted September hike pricing into a ~36–44% band on the eve of Warsh's Jackson Hole debut, while Barclays argues the market over-focused on long-end term premia and under-prices the policy-rate path .
Flow Data Confirms Hormuz Recovery Toward 10 mb/d as Crude Sells Off; US–Iran Attrition War Hardens
De-escalation is now confirmed by physical flow data, not just headlines — Hormuz exports are back to 7–8 mb/d (~75% of pre-war) with an 18-tanker outbound peak on 8/21, sending crude to a weak week — even as the US–Iran contest hardens into an economic war of attrition and Oman reportedly halts escort cooperation with Washington .