· Wednesday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Jackson Hole Eve: FedWatch Holds September at 60.4% vs a 39.6% Hike, 2026-Hike Odds at 78%; Collins and Barkin Keep the Door Open; HSBC and BofA Crown Warsh's Speech — Not the TGA-Funded Buybacks — as the Long-End and Dollar Arbiter
With Warsh's Jackson Hole debut two days out, the rate path is steady — FedWatch prices a 60.4% September hold vs 39.6% hike and markets price 78% odds of a hike this year — while Collins and Barkin kept tightening options live and HSBC/BofA frame the speech, not the Treasury's TGA-funded buybacks, as the true arbiter of the long-end term premium and the dollar .
Hormuz: Iran–Oman Propose Joint Safe Corridor; US Navy Reopens Main Lane; Pakistan Shuttle + Diplomat Return Unwind Premium — Brent Breaks Below $90
Reversal toward de-escalation: Iran and Oman proposed a joint safe Hormuz corridor , the US Navy reopened the main shipping lane after clearing 100+ suspected mines , and Pakistan's shuttle diplomacy plus a reported US plan to redeploy Middle East diplomats sent Brent below $90 (down more than 3%), quickly unwinding the Strait of Hormuz risk premium .