· Friday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Warsh's Jackson Hole debut: FOMC split on whether policy is tight enough, September hold ~64% vs hike ~36%, long end held below intervention lines; gold's rally shifts from a rates trade to a debasement trade
Jackson Hole is the arbiter — the FOMC is publicly split over whether policy is restrictive enough (Schmid and Hammack vs Collins and Goolsbee), September hold pricing sits near 63.5% with a hike nearly certain by end-year, and the long end holds just below the Treasury's intervention lines ahead of Warsh's keynote, with gold's driver having shifted from a rates trade to a fiscal-debasement trade .
Goldman Puts Gulf Exports at 15–16 mb/d as Iran Hardens Reopening Terms; Khamenei Vacuum Adds Uncertainty
The recovery narrative hardened — Goldman Sachs estimates total Persian Gulf exports at 15–16 mb/d (~two-thirds of pre-war) with Hormuz transit approaching the US-official 8–10 mb/d estimate — while Iran widened its conditions (Hormuz tied to ending the Lebanon and Gaza wars, blockade-lift precondition) , and a Khamenei leadership vacuum plus Qatar's LNG force majeure extension kept a residual premium in place .