· Tuesday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Jackson Hole Eve: Pricing Splits Wide Open — FedWatch Holds September at 58.6% vs a 41.4% Hike While Deutsche Bank Reads ~60% Hike Odds; Buyback Credibility Fails Again (30Y 5.237%), Dollar Breaks Below 98, Gold Turns Crowded
On the eve of Warsh's Jackson Hole debut, the rate path is genuinely contested — FedWatch prices a 58.6% September hold while Deutsche Bank reads ~60% hike odds with December fully priced — and with the Treasury buyback again failing to hold the long end (30Y at 5.237%) , the dollar below 98 and a gold complex now crowded after starting the month underweight are the pressure valves .
Hormuz: Iran Blacklists 45 Tankers as Strait-Authority Enforcement Hardens; IMO Attack Tally Rises to 68 / 20 Dead; UN Forms Working Group; Hegseth Keeps Military Option Open
Escalating on the enforcement and institutional layers — Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority blacklisted 45 tankers and threatened action against any vessel transshipping with them ; the IMO tally rose to 68 maritime attacks with at least 20 deaths ; the UN formed a working group on the crisis — while Hormuz traffic holds below 10% of pre-war levels and this batch carries no fresh crude-price prints.