· Friday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Post-FOMC Fallout: 30-Year at 19-Year High Then Eases Friday; June Core PCE Cools Below Consensus; BOJ/BOE Hold, PBoC Signals Q3 Easing; Warsh Credibility Becomes the Market's Core Variable
The Warsh Fed's "hawkish hold" aftermath dominates: the 30-year yield touched a 19-year high of 5.24% before reversing lower Friday, June core PCE cooled below expectations while staying sticky, and the BOJ and BOE both held as the PBoC signaled faster easing — leaving September hike odds near 60-67% and Fed credibility as the swing variable for risk assets.
Oil Eases on First Hormuz Flow Recovery; Conflict Widens to Kuwait and Egypt; Iran Hardens Strait Stance
The U.S.-Iran fight kept widening — Iran hit a Chinese company's building in Kuwait, Jordan shot down a second day of Iranian missiles, and Egypt confirmed a drone attack on two gas carriers at Damietta — yet oil prices fell on Friday (Brent ~$88, WTI ~$82) as Hormuz flows showed the first concrete recovery: clandestine STS shuttling resumed , CBA estimates traffic at roughly 30-35% of pre-war levels , and a Qatari LNG carrier exited the Strait for the first time since July 11 , even as Iran's deputy FM insisted "our victory" is incomplete if the Strait returns to its previous state .