· Saturday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Post-FOMC Credibility Shock Deepens: 30Y Closes Above 5.25% at 19-Year High, Dissenters Take Their Case Public, Warsh Floats Fewer FOMC Meetings; Sept Hike ~65-67% Ahead of July Jobs
The Warsh Fed's credibility shock intensified into the weekend — the 30-year closed above 5.25% (19-year high) and the 10-year above 4.73% as the three dissenting regional presidents published detailed statements justifying immediate hikes, and Chair Warsh floated cutting FOMC meetings below the standard eight a year — leaving September hike odds near 65-67% ahead of next Friday's July jobs report.
Iran Formalizes Strait Closure and Seizes Tankers; U.S.-Israel Reportedly Ready Energy-Infrastructure Strikes; Oil Set for +23% July
Net change: escalating — Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority formally declared the waterway "can no longer be transited normally" and the IRGC struck and detained two tankers that tried to cross under U.S. escort , while U.S. media report Washington and Israel are preparing strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, possibly before Monday's market open ; Brent pushed past $90 on Thursday, rose more than 1% on Friday and was on track to gain 23% in July .