· Friday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
〈Oil at $100 and Bond Yields Surge to Multi-Year Highs as July Hike Probability Hits 38%; Economists Unanimous in Expecting a Hold, Creating Maximum Consensus Fragility〉
Brent crude surged to $100/bbl and the 10-year yield broke past 4.7% (highest since Jan 2025) while the 30-year reached 5.18% (highest since 2007), driving CME FedWatch July hike probability to 38% — but all 70 surveyed economists expect a hold; jobless claims fell to a 1969 low of 187,000, and the hawkish FOMC dot plot (9 of 18 for a hike) combined with Warsh's abandoned forward guidance leave the committee in maximum unpredictability.
〈Brent Breaches $100 as Houthi Red Sea Strikes Create Dual-Chokepoint Crisis; 13th Night of U.S. Strikes; Iran Rejects Ceasefire; Trump Threatens “Massive Attack”〉
Brent crude surged above $100/bbl for the first time since May as Houthi attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea opened a second front, creating a dual-chokepoint supply crisis alongside the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz; the U.S. launched a 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, Trump threatened a “massive attack” and said frozen Iranian assets would pay for damages, while Iran rejected a U.S. cease-fire offer and its foreign minister warned of “ensuing chaos.”