· Thursday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
〈FOMC Meeting Highly Unpredictable as Warsh Withholds Guidance, DB Hawk-Dove Index Hits Highest Since 2022; Oil Surge and Divergent Official Views Create 30-36% July Hike Probability; Citi Says Core CPI May Fall Below 2.5%, Undercutting Hawkish Case〉
With Chair Warsh withholding guidance and promising a "family fight," the July 28-29 FOMC meeting is shaping up as one of the least predictable in years — swap markets price a ~30% July hike probability while all 76 surveyed economists expect a hold; the DB AI Hawk-Dove Index rose to 6.5 (highest since Aug 2022), with Kashkari (8.5) the most hawkish and Warsh (7.5) ranking third; a renewed US-Iran conflict pushes the 10-year yield toward 4.70% (4.675% as of July 22), and the market has fully priced a September 25bp hike; however, Citi argues the market underestimates how much core CPI softening (expected below 2.5% within two months) raises the bar for rate hikes, and PIMCO expects the Fed to hold through 2026.
〈Houthi Red Sea Attack Opens Dual-Chokepoint Crisis; Brent Surges Past $96; 12th Night of U.S. Strikes〉
Houthi rebels attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, turning the Bab el-Mandeb blockade threat into a material reality and creating a dual-chokepoint supply crisis alongside the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz; Brent crude surged above $96/bbl, while the U.S. conducted a 12th consecutive night of strikes on Iran and deployed a B-1 bomber; Trump threatened to destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant for every attack on a ship in the Strait, drawing a reciprocal threat from Iran to block all regional oil exports if U.S. infrastructure strikes proceed.