· Saturday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
〈Hammack Hawkish Remarks Reinforce Caution Amid Soft Inflation Data, July Hold Probability at 85.6%; Global CB Divergence Widens with BOK Hike to 2.75%〉
Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivered hawkish remarks stressing broad-based and persistent inflation, while June CPI/PPI disinflation data pushed July hold probability to 85.6% and Morgan Stanley argued the market misread Waller's speech; Deutsche Bank raised its 10-year yield forecast to 4.80% on a hawkish Fed path, and the Bank of Korea hiked 25bp to 2.75% in a widening global tightening cycle.
〈U.S. and Iran Trade Seventh Night of Strikes; Iran Closes Strait Completely; Oil Surges to $88; Dual-Chokepoint Risk Looms〉
The U.S.-Iran conflict entered its seventh day with the U.S. targeting infrastructure for a seventh consecutive night, Iran retaliated heavily against Kuwait (hitting a desalination plant) and declared the Strait of Hormuz fully closed after two tankers exploded in a mined route; Strait transit collapsed to 8 ships on July 16, Brent crude surged to $88/bbl, and Iran instructed Houthi proxies to prepare to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising the prospect of a dual-chokepoint crisis.