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Fed Watch

〈Hammack Hawkish Remarks Reinforce Caution Amid Soft Inflation Data, July Hold Probability at 85.6%; Global CB Divergence Widens with BOK Hike to 2.75%〉

Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivered hawkish remarks stressing broad-based and persistent inflation, while June CPI/PPI disinflation data pushed July hold probability to 85.6% and Morgan Stanley argued the market misread Waller's speech; Deutsche Bank raised its 10-year yield forecast to 4.80% on a hawkish Fed path, and the Bank of Korea hiked 25bp to 2.75% in a widening global tightening cycle.

29 sources ~48 min

0. Weekly Arc

The week opened with Waller’s July 13 hawkish salvo pushing July hike probability to ~50%. The June CPI and PPI disinflation (core CPI -0.02% m/m) violently reversed that repricing, collapsing July hike probability to ~11-20%. By July 17-18, Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivered hawkish remarks — “persistently high inflation is the bigger concern” — partially halting the dovish repricing, while Deutsche Bank raised its 10-year yield target to 4.80% and the BOK hiked 25bp to 2.75%. The arc ends in a standoff: the data flow is disinflationary, but the committee’s hawks are not backing down.

1. Policy Narrative & Expectations

The net change over the past ~24h is a hawkish-leaning pushback against the CPI/PPI-induced dovish repricing, led by Cleveland Fed President Hammack’s explicit hawkish remarks. Hammack stated that “persistently high inflation is the bigger concern” [1], that inflation is “too high” and the labor market is at maximum employment [2], and that business leaders cite energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and AI data center construction as broad-based cost pressures [3][4]. Morgan Stanley analyzed that the market’s prior ~50% July hike pricing was a misreading of Waller’s speech and that the June CPI data confirms underlying inflation is slowing [5]. The CME FedWatch July hold probability stands at 85.6%, with September pricing at 41.4% hold, 51.2% hike, and 7.5% 50bp hike [6].

1.1 FOMC Officials’ Remarks

  • [NEW] Hawkish — Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed President, July 17 remarks): Hammack delivered a series of hawkish remarks at a community event. Key remarks: (1) “Persistently high inflation is the bigger concern” [1]; (2) “Inflation is too high. The labor market is right around my level of maximum employment” [2]; (3) “Inflation isn’t coming from only one source — it’s broad-based” [4]; (4) Business leaders cite energy costs, supply chain disruptions, insurance costs, and AI data center construction as cost pressures [3]; (5) She is hearing from businesses who say they “need to take action to curb inflation” and from consumers expressing despair about financial hardship [7]; (6) At the same time, she sees “good growth numbers and stable consumer spending” [8][9]. Marginal shift vs prior history: This is Hammack’s first appearance in the briefing history. Her tone is unambiguously hawkish — she explicitly frames inflation as the bigger concern and a broad-based problem, and uses language that supports a higher bar for cutting. However, her acknowledgment of “good growth numbers” tempers the alarm.

  • [ONGOING] Hawkish — Kevin Warsh (Chair): Warsh, Waller, and Logan were cited as having delivered hawkish remarks in aggregate [10]. Per Morgan Stanley, Waller’s prior remarks were “misread” by the market [5]. No new direct remarks today.

  • [ONGOING] Dovish — Jerome Powell (former Chair): Powell’s March 2026 stance that oil inflation is a “temporary disturbance” was cited as part of the historical record [11]. No new remarks today.

1.2 Policy Signals & Institutional Communication

  • [NEW] CME FedWatch — July hold at 85.6%, hike at 14.4%: The market-implied probability of a July 25bp hold is 85.6%, with September probabilities: hold 41.4%, 25bp hike 51.2%, 50bp hike 7.5% [6]. This represents a full reversal from the ~50% July hike probability after Waller’s speech.

  • [NEW] Morgan Stanley — market misread Waller’s speech; inflation is slowing: Morgan Stanley argues that the market’s prior ~50% July hike pricing was a misreading of Waller’s speech, and that the June CPI data confirms underlying inflation is slowing, supporting their view that the Fed will hold [5].

  • [NEW] Deutsche Bank — baseline forecast of two rate hikes this year, but July hike unlikely: Deutsche Bank’s baseline forecast is two rate hikes this year, but it believes a July hike is unlikely [12]. It raised its 10-year Treasury yield forecast by 10bp to 4.80% [12].

  • [NEW] Deutsche Bank — Warsh’s aversion to forward guidance increases policy uncertainty: Chair Warsh’s aversion to forward guidance and reserved stance on reaction function details may increase near-term policy uncertainty [12].

  • [NEW] Fed AI Task Force — may focus on productivity boost: Deutsche Bank notes that the Fed’s new AI Task Force may focus on AI boosting productivity for a supply-side boom, estimating AI can add 0.5-0.75 percentage points annually to productivity [12].

  • [NEW] Fed balance sheet reduction “on the agenda”: Bloomberg reports that Chair Warsh has formally put balance sheet reduction on the agenda [13].

  • [NEW] Goldman Sachs — expects no rate hike, easing cycle in 2027: Goldman Sachs economists expect the Fed will not hike and will instead begin a delayed easing cycle in 2027 [14].

  • [NEW] Four dissenters at April 2026 FOMC meeting: A historical note from the April 30 FOMC meeting showed four dissenters voting to hold at 3.5%-3.75%, the first time since 1992 [15].

2. Key Data & Market Read

  • [ESCALATED] June CPI (released July 14, already covered): Headline CPI fell 0.42% m/m, core CPI fell 0.02% m/m (vs consensus +0.23%) [16][10][5][12]. Market read: Triggered a massive dovish repricing, collapsing July hike probability from ~50% to ~14% [6]. Morgan Stanley’s analysis that the “Cleveland Fed Trimmed Mean CPI rose only 0.01%” confirms the weakness was not an anomaly [5]. Narrative impact: The data supports the disinflation narrative, but Hammack’s hawkish remarks and Deutsche Bank’s two-hike forecast show the committee remains divided. Goldman Sachs warns that “core PCE at 3%+ requires more data to erode hike pricing” [17].

  • [NEW] June PPI (released July 15, already covered): Headline PPI fell 0.3% m/m, below expectations [18]. Market read: Strengthened the disinflation narrative. June annualized inflation around 2% per Russell Investments [18]. Narrative impact: Factory-level inflation confirms the CPI trend, reducing the urgency for a July hike [18].

  • [NEW] June retail sales beat expectations: Russell Investments reports that retail sales beat expectations in June [18]. Narrative impact: Consumer spending remains strong, supporting the “growth↑” narrative leg and partially offsetting the growth slowdown fears from the GDP downgrades.

  • [NEW] Initial jobless claims near historic lows: Per Russell Investments, initial jobless claims remain near historic lows [18]. Narrative impact: The labor market is not rapidly deteriorating, challenging the recession narrative and the “growth↓” quadrants.

  • [NEW] Regional Fed surveys — activity strengthening midyear: Per Russell Investments, regional Fed surveys indicate strengthening economic activity midyear [18]. Narrative impact: Supports the “soft landing” narrative.

  • [NEW] China Q2 GDP slightly below expectations: Per Russell Investments, China Q2 GDP came in slightly below expectations [18]. Narrative impact: Adds to the global growth-fragility narrative but is not a major shock.

  • [NEW] US consumer confidence at historic lows: University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 44.8 in May, the lowest in over 70 years [13]. The Conference Board confidence index fell to 93.1 [13]. Narrative impact: The divergence between strong macro data (retail sales, jobless claims) and weak sentiment data is a structural concern for the consumer leg of the economy.

  • [NEW] S&P 500 CAPE ratio at 40.8x: The Shiller cyclically adjusted P/E ratio is 40.8x, only below the 2000 dot-com bubble peak [13]. Narrative impact: Extreme equity valuations make the market vulnerable to a rate shock.

3. Financial-Conditions Signals

  • [NEW] Dollar & rates — USD positioning at +1.5 standard deviations: JPMorgan’s USD positioning indicator is at +1.5 standard deviations, indicating crowded long positioning [10]. This makes the dollar vulnerable to a data-driven unwind.

  • [NEW] Dollar & rates — US real rates trending higher: Per multiple sources, US real interest rates have been rising [12][11]. This reflects the hawkish repricing of the rate path and the structural upward pressure from fiscal deficits and AI capital demand [12].

  • [NEW] Dollar & rates — T-bill yields at ~3.8%, T-bill ETF approaching $100bn: Three-month T-bill yields are around 3.8%, and BlackRock’s T-bill ETF is on the verge of reaching $100 billion in assets [19]. This reflects massive demand for short-duration yield.

  • [NEW] Liquidity — global M2 growth at 16% annualized over 20 years: The past 20 years have seen global broad money supply grow at 16% annualized [13]. Sovereign wealth funds and corporate cash reserves continue to inject liquidity into markets [13].

  • [NEW] Liquidity — passive investing at >50% of US stock market: Over 50% of US stock market capitalization is held by passive funds (ETFs and index funds) [13]. US ETF net inflows were over $400bn in 2025 and are expected to exceed $500bn in 2026 [13]. This creates a self-reinforcing upward cycle but also concentration risk.

  • [NEW] Credit & banking — AI stocks account for 70% of S&P 500 gains: This year, 70 cents of every dollar of S&P 500 gains are driven by 41 AI stocks, which have a combined market cap of nearly half the index [13]. This extreme concentration makes the market vulnerable to an AI-sector correction.

  • [NEW] Korea — KOSPI down 25% from peak, margin debt at all-time high: The KOSPI index fell 25% from its June 22 high to July 16 [20]. Margin credit (credit financing balance) reached an all-time high of 38.63 trillion won as of June 24, and leverage has not yet been fully cleared — the margin-to-market cap ratio is back to the 2021 bull market peak [20]. This creates a second wave of deleveraging tail risk.

4. Global Central-Bank Linkages

  • [NEW] Bank of Korea hikes 25bp to 2.75%: The BOK voted unanimously to raise its benchmark rate by 25bp to 2.75%, the first hike since January 2023, and its statement said it is necessary to “continue a policy stance consistent with further rate hikes” [20]. The market expects a second hike in October, bringing the year-end rate to 3.0% [20].

  • [NEW] BOK — Korean rate differentials support hiking cycle: Per GF Securities, the KRW-USD rate differential is large, and with USD rates remaining high, the BOK may be forming a “rate hike cycle” to offset spread pressure [20].

  • [NEW] ECB — expected to hold next week, potential September hike: JPMorgan expects the ECB to hold steady at its July meeting and deliver a final hike in September [16]. Goldman Sachs notes that the 1y1y rate has repriced over 30bp since the July 2 low, reflecting a “higher for longer” path [17]. Morgan Stanley says investors are watching next week’s ECB press conference for signals [21].

  • [NEW] BOJ — rising pressure to hike: JPMorgan notes that the BOJ faces increasing pressure to raise rates as inflation rises and the yen weakens [16]. The BOJ has raised its policy rate to 1.00% [12]. Japan’s April PPI surged 4.9% YoY, the highest in nearly three years, pushing the 30-year JGB yield to a record 4.08% [15].

  • [NEW] Bank of Canada — held steady, may cut again within the year: The Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady this week. Russell Investments expects the BoC may cut again within the year as inflation nears target [18].

  • [NEW] PBOC — expected to introduce more easing measures: Russell Investments expects China to introduce more easing measures to boost consumption [18].

  • [NEW] Brazil central bank — continues cutting, may pause after September: Per JPMorgan, the Brazilian central bank continues cutting rates on disinflation but may pause after September [16].

5. Asset Implications

This section is inference — no [N]. Anchored to the facts above.

QuadrantCurrent probability tiltKey asset implicationAnchoring narrative
Growth↑ + Inflation↑FallingThe CPI/PPI disinflation and Morgan Stanley’s “core PCE below 2% by September” forecast weaken this quadrant; Hammack’s persistent-inflation warning and Deutsche Bank’s two-hike forecast keep it alive but data flow is moving against it; commodities still benefit from AI demand, but the energy price channel is fading; Deutsche Bank’s 10-year yield forecast of 4.80% reflects remaining fiscal risk§1.2 (Deutsche Bank two-hike forecast, 10-year 4.80%); §1.1 (Hammack: broad-based inflation, bigger concern); §2 (CPI disinflation, retail sales beat); §3 (AI concentration risk, KOSPI -25%)
Growth↑ + Inflation↓RisingThe “Goldilocks” window re-opened decisively: CPI and PPI disinflation, retail sales beat, jobless claims near lows, regional Fed surveys strengthening; Morgan Stanley’s thesis that inflation will be below 2% annualized by September supports this quadrant; the 2-year yield decline and equity rally (S&P +0.38%, Nasdaq +0.9%) are textbook; Deutsche Bank’s 10-year 4.80% target and BOK’s hike are partial offsets§2 (CPI/PPI disinflation, retail sales beat, regional Fed surveys); §1.2 (Morgan Stanley: core inflation slowing, hold call; Goldman: no hike, easing in 2027); §8 (Morgan Stanley curve steepening call)
Growth↓ + Inflation↑FallingStagflation probabilities decline as CPI/PPI both soft, jobless claims low, and retail sales beat expectations; the KOSPI -25% and Korean margin debt risk are EM-specific, not a global signal; the GDP tracking downgrades (BofA 1.4%) and consumer confidence at lows are a tail but not the base case§2 (China GDP below expectations, consumer confidence lows); §3 (KOSPI -25%, Korea margin debt); §1.1 (Hammack: energy and AI cost pressures); §30 (BOK hike, Korean leverage tail risk)
Growth↓ + Inflation↓RisingLong-duration bonds rallied on the CPI/PPI disinflation; Morgan Stanley’s core PCE forecast of 2.2% in H2 and below 2% by September supports this quadrant; Deutsche Bank’s 10-year 4.80% is the contrarian call that would break the rally; the 2-year at 4.14% and July hold at 85.6% make front-end duration attractive§2 (CPI/PPI disinflation, Goldman core PCE tracking 18bp); §1.2 (Morgan Stanley: core PCE below 2% by September); §8 (1y1y CPI swap at 2.01%); §16 (Treasury gains for the week on inflation data)

Stock-bond correlation call: The regime has shifted back toward negative correlation (growth-driven) within the CPI/PPI data window. The Treasury market gained for the week as favorable inflation data overcame rising oil prices [22]. The 2-year yield declined, and the July hold probability at 85.6% suggests the market is pricing a benign scenario. Morgan Stanley’s call to steepen the 2s-10s curve [5] is consistent with a growth-driven move where front-end yields fall on lower inflation expectations while long-end yields are supported by supply and AI demand. However, Hammack’s hawkish remarks and Deutsche Bank’s 4.80% 10-year target [12] introduce a hawkish term-premium component that could re-introduce positive correlation if the data flow reverses. The KOSPI crash in Korea is a risk-off signal within EM but not a global contagion event currently.

Risk-budget implication:

  • Overweight intermediate nominal duration (2-5 year) — the 2-year at ~4.14% with July hold at 85.6% is attractive. Morgan Stanley’s recommendation to steepen the curve (short 2-year via futures, long 7-30 year) [5] captures the disinflation beta. The 1-year CPI swap at 2.01% [5] suggests the market is pricing rapid disinflation.
  • Underweight long-duration nominal (10y+) — Deutsche Bank raised its 10-year forecast to 4.80% [12] and JPMorgan recommends shorting 10-year UST vs Bunds [16]. The 30-year auction saw a record-low bid-to-cover ratio of 2.30 [15] — supply pressure is real.
  • Overweight the US curve steepener (2s10s and 7s30s) — Morgan Stanley explicitly recommends the 7s30s steepener (entry 66.5bp, target 100bp, stop 50bp) [5]. This captures the disinflation front-end rally and the fiscal supply-driven long-end premium.
  • Overweight gold tactically — Goldman Sachs maintains its year-end gold target of $4,900/oz [14], citing central bank buying (51% cite geopolitical risk prevention per OMFIF survey [14]) and fiscal sustainability concerns. However, rising real rates [11] and the view that gold is “pricing a rate hike cycle” [11] suggest gold may not have bottomed. A size-limited long with a stop below the $3,900 level is appropriate. Goldman notes that central bank buying typically slows in summer and accelerates after September [14].
  • Overweight EM FX carry with a hedge against Korean contagion — JPMorgan recommends overweight high-yield EM bonds (South Africa, Colombia, Mexico, Paraguay, Hungary) [16] and non-USD funded carry trades [10]. The BOK hike and KOSPI crash are a warning that EM leverage is fragile. The BOK’s hiking cycle [20] suggests the won may be a funding currency for EM carry.
  • Underweight the USD with a short vol hedge — USD positioning is at +1.5 standard deviations [10], making it vulnerable to a soft data surprise. JPMorgan recommends selling short-dated, low-delta USD calls as the most robust carry trade [23]. The July CPI/PPI data flow provides a catalyst for USD weakness. However, the positive asymmetry on the dollar (hawkish Fed limits downside) means a short USD position should be hedged with long FX vol.

6. Contrarian & Tail Risks

  • Consensus fragility — the market is pricing a disinflation that is not confirmed by core PCE: Both Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan estimate June core PCE at 0.18-0.22% m/m and 3.4% y/y [16][17]. This is well above target and still consistent with a hawkish Fed. Goldman Sachs explicitly warns that “core PCE at 3%+ requires more data to erode hike pricing” [17]. The disinflation trade is pricing in a soft landing that the data has not yet confirmed.

  • Consensus fragility — Deutsche Bank’s two-hike forecast vs. the market’s ~14% July hike pricing: Deutsche Bank expects two rate hikes this year and has raised its 10-year forecast to 4.80% [12]. If the data flow reverses (energy spike from Strait of Hormuz, hot July CPI), the market’s pricing of zero hikes would reverse violently.

  • Consensus fragility — Goldman’s no-hike view vs. the hawkish committee: Goldman Sachs economists expect no hike and a delayed easing cycle in 2027 [14], while the FOMC had four dissenters at the April meeting [15] and Hammack is explicitly hawkish [3][1]. The gap between Goldman’s view and the committee’s hawkish members is a material risk.

  • Consensus fragility — the AI-valuation / consumer-sentiment divergence: The stock market (S&P +130% in 6 years, CAPE at 40.8x) is at all-time highs while consumer confidence is at 70-year lows [13]. This divergence is historically unprecedented and cannot persist indefinitely. The passive-investing self-reinforcing cycle could reverse violently if a trigger event occurs — a hot CPI report, an AI capex cut from a major firm, or a geopolitical shock.

  • Consensus fragility — Korean KOSPI deleveraging as a canary: The KOSPI’s 25% decline from peak, combined with margin debt at an all-time high and the finance-to-market cap ratio back to the 2021 peak [20], suggests a second wave of leveraged deleveraging is a real tail risk for EM risk appetite. If KOSPI declines further, it could spill over to global risk appetite through the channel of leveraged institutional investors.

  • Second-order — Strait of Hormuz escalation → FOMC vote to hike: Per one analyst, if the Strait of Hormuz situation escalates further over the next 10 days (before the July 28-29 FOMC meeting), it could increase the probability that some FOMC members vote to hike [11]. JPMorgan estimates Brent crude at $86/bbl in Q3 on Strait of Hormuz tensions [16]. An oil spike to $90+ would re-introduce energy-driven inflation, validating Hammack’s hawkish concerns and forcing the Fed’s hand.

  • Second-order — Fed balance sheet reduction + term premium: Warsh has formally put balance sheet reduction on the agenda [13]. Combined with the record-low 30-year auction bid-to-cover ratio of 2.30 [15], a more aggressive QT stance would drive term premia higher, pushing long-end yields toward Deutsche Bank’s 4.80% target and beyond.

  • Second-order — Indian and Southeast Asian EM vulnerability: Per Haitian International, high oil prices hurt India and Southeast Asian emerging markets especially hard, compressing corporate profits, weakening competitiveness, and causing imported inflation, local currency depreciation, and capital outflows [15]. This is a second-order channel from the oil spike to global risk-off.

  • Source quality control: Hammack’s remarks [3][7][8][9][24][4][1][2] are from Financial Juice, which cites her publicly-available remarks. The “persistently high inflation is the bigger concern” quote [1] is a single source. The JPMorgan data [16][23][10] is primary institutional research. The Goldman Sachs data [17][14] is primary institutional research. The Morgan Stanley analysis [5][21] is primary institutional research. The Deutsche Bank analysis [12] is primary institutional research. The CME FedWatch data [6] is official. The KOSPI/BOK data [20] is from GF Securities, a primary institutional source. The Russell Investments analysis [18] is primary.

Appendix: Additional Sources

  • [25] JPMorgan — G10 FX options: selling short-dated, low-delta USD calls is the most robust volatility carry trade
  • [11] 培风客 — Hammack analysis, Strait of Hormuz tail risk, gold/copper positioning, “bad things happening sequentially” risk
  • [13] 澎湃新闻 — S&P 500 CAPE 40.8x, consumer confidence 44.8, passive investing >50% market cap, AI stock concentration, ETF inflows $400bn+ in 2025
  • [26] Hoover Institution — Book on Fed’s inflation-fighting strategy
  • [27] Financial Juice — US economic calendar July 20-24
  • [28] WSJ — ECB expected to hold, September hike possible, PMI data in focus
  • [29] Financial Juice — Effective Fed Funds rate unchanged at 3.63%
  • [15] 海通国际 — FOMC April dissenters, 30-year auction bid-to-cover 2.30, Japan PPI 4.9% YoY, JGB 30-year at 4.08%, Korean leverage, Indian EM vulnerability; expects potential surprise Fed rate cut in H2

This report is a macro-mechanism analysis, not investment advice.

30-day review of this series 6/18 – 7/18

  • Hawkish FOMC debut and the disinflation counterwave: Chair Warsh’s June meeting—a 9-9 dot-plot tie for 2026 hikes, stripped forward guidance, and sharply higher inflation forecasts—triggered a violent repricing of rate expectations. Over the following weeks, soft June CPI and PPI readings collapsed July hike probability to near 11%, but a wall of Fed speakers (Logan, Jefferson, Schmid) warned against declaring victory, keeping the standoff alive.

  • Labor market softening tests the hawkish consensus: The June payrolls miss of +57k—well below consensus—undermined the “employment overheating” pillar and pushed the first fully priced hike from October to December. Yet the FOMC minutes and subsequent official commentary continued to emphasize inflation persistence, preventing a full dovish pivot.

  • Warsh’s communication overhaul raises volatility: The new chair abolished forward guidance, slashed the FOMC statement to 130 words, and launched five task forces to review communication, balance sheet, and data use. This structural shift made every data release and meeting a “live” event, amplifying market sensitivity to incoming prints.

  • Dollar and rate-path divergence widens: The dollar rallied to a one-year high on the hawkish repricing, then retreated as disinflation data emerged, while BofA’s three-hike forecast stood in stark contrast to market pricing of less than one hike. The gap between institutional forecasts and market pricing remained the widest in the cycle.

  • Global central bank divergence intensifies: The BOJ raised rates to 1.0% and signaled further hikes, the ECB resumed tightening, and the BOE held, while the Fed’s uncertain path created asymmetric cross-currents for EM FX and carry trades, with the yen carry trade reaching 2008-level risk.

Sources29

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  2. Fed's Hammack: Inflation is too high. The labor market is right around my level of maximum employment. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 60
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