· Sunday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
〈Warsh and Waller Maintain Hawkish Tone; Oil Surge to $88 and BEA Revamp Complicate September Hike Debate; CME FedWatch Puts September Hike at 59% vs Kalshi Unchanged〉
Warsh and Waller reiterate hawkish stance; Brent surges 16% to $88/bbl on Middle East tensions; BEA plans statistical revamp that will lower PCE readings; CME FedWatch September hike probability at 59% diverging from Kalshi unchanged expectations; UBS recommends SOFR receiver and long inflation swaps; real rates continue to rise while inflation expectations fall to four-year low.
〈Eighth Night of Strikes; Iran Suspends Interim Deal; Two US Soldiers Killed; Strait Declared Fully Closed; Oil Surges Over 10%〉
The U.S.-Iran conflict escalated sharply over the weekend with an eighth consecutive night of U.S. strikes hitting infrastructure targets for the first time; two U.S. service members were killed in Jordan, bringing total U.S. deaths to 16; Iran formally suspended its commitments under the June interim deal, with Supreme Leader Khamenei declaring Trump's signature "worthless and invalid"; Iran's IRGC claimed two oil tankers exploded in a mined route south of the Strait and declared the waterway fully closed to oil and gas shipments; Iranian retaliatory strikes hit a Kuwaiti desalination plant and oil facility, and struck Saudi Arabia for the first time in three months; Strait transit fell to a three-week low; Brent crude surged over 10% this week, briefly breaching $87/bbl; the IEA warned of potential gasoline and diesel supply shortages as strategic and commercial buffers are nearly exhausted; Iran instructed Houthi proxies to prepare to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.