· Tuesday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Hawkish Repricing Deepens: BofA Now Expects Three Hikes, OIS Prices 36% July Hike Probability; PCE Data on Thursday the Next Clearing Event
BofA abruptly escalates to a three-hike forecast (Sep/Oct/Dec), OIS prices 36% probability of a July hike and 98% for September, while the 10-year real yield rebounds to 2.26% and the dollar index holds near 101; Citi remains the contrarian pole, forecasting cuts; Thursday's core PCE data is the binary event.
Strait of Hormuz: Traffic Rises, Risk Level Downgraded, but Dual-Authority Tensions Persist
Situation de-escalates further as Strait of Hormuz traffic rises to 30+ vessels in 24h — highest since the conflict began — and the UKMTO downgrades the threat level from "severe" to "moderate," but conflicting US/Iranian navigation instructions and Iran's toll ambitions keep shipowners in a legal double-bind, while US SPR stocks hit a 43-year low and Brent stabilizes near $78.