· Monday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Hawkish Repricing Deepens: BofA Turns Hawkish with 3-Hike Forecast, FedWatch Shows Sep Hike >70% Probability; PCE Data on Thursday the Next Pivot
Hawkish repricing extends: BofA joins Deutsche Bank in forecasting hikes, FedWatch now prices >70% probability of a September move, and 2-year yields hit 4.22%; Citi remains the lone dove expecting cuts; May PCE data on Thursday is the next clearing event.
Strait of Hormuz: Talks Progress Amid Iran Closure Threat and Trump Ultimatum; Oil Bounces from Lows
Oil prices initially fell on peace talks progress before rebounding after President Trump threatened to 'take over' Iran and Tehran declared the interim deal void, while transit through the Strait of Hormuz remained minimal with only 5 vessels crossing Monday.