· Wednesday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Hawkish Repricing Consolidates Ahead of Thursday's PCE Binary; BofA and Deutsche Bank Lock In 3-Hike and 2-Hike Forecasts, Goldman Sees 50% July Probability; Dollar at One-Year High, Gold Forecasts Slashed
The hawkish repricing consolidates ahead of Thursday's May PCE data — BofA now expects three 25bp hikes this year, Deutsche Bank expects two, Goldman Sachs sees 50% July-hike probability, and OIS markets price a 37% July chance and 50% September chance; the dollar hit a one-year high, Goldman cut its year-end gold forecast to $4,900, and the Warsh communication vacuum is increasingly flagged as a structural volatility risk.
Strait of Hormuz: Brent Breaches Pre-War Floor as Traffic Picks Up Under Managed Evacuation, But Closed Central Channel and US-Iran Toll Friction Persist
Operational de-escalation continues but administrative friction escalates: Brent crude briefly fell below $76 — lower than the pre-war February 27 close — as traffic surged to 172 vessels since the deal, the IMO launched a controlled-evacuation plan for ~11,000 stranded seafarers, and tanker rates nearly doubled. However, the central TSS channel remains mined and closed, Iran and Oman confirmed they are discussing future transit fees, and the US reiterated any tolls would violate international law, creating a growing legal and diplomatic confrontation over the post-60-day regime.