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Fed Watch

Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole debut flips September odds past 50%; bear flattening, firmer dollar, gold cracks

Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole debut triggered the most hawkish market reaction since 2009 — a "firm and fixed" 2% target, "financial conditions are not restrictive," and "we have more work to do" flipped September hike odds from ~35% to a 50–60% band, bear-flattened the curve, lifted the dollar and knocked gold down more than 2% .

58 sources ~40 min

0. Weekly Arc

The week’s arc resolved in a single event: Warsh’s Jackson Hole debut. After a contested rate path — September hold pricing near 60–64% — the Chair’s keynote delivered a hawkish correction to the July communication: a firm-and-fixed 2% PCE target, financial conditions deemed “not restrictive,” and the conditional threat of “more work to do.” September hike odds flipped past 50%, the curve bear-flattened in a classic hiking-trade pattern, the dollar reversed its slide, and gold’s debasement rally cracked. The long end held on Treasury buyback support, leaving August payrolls and CPI as the true arbiters.

1. Policy Narrative & Expectations

The net change over the past ~24h is a regime inflection: the market’s baseline shifted from “no hike unless inflation surprises” to “hike if inflation does not fall” [1]. September hike pricing jumped from ~35% pre-speech to a 50–60% band (CME FedWatch next day: 59.7% hike / 40.3% hold; futures ~60%; Kalshi 49%) [2][3][4][5][6], with a year-end hike >90% priced [3][7] and traders leaning toward two hikes by March 2027 [8][6]. The policy-path split among houses has widened: Barclays and SocGen moved to 25bp hikes in September and December (target 4.00–4.25%) [9][10][11]; JPMorgan keeps a December baseline but calls September “a live option” [12][13]; Goldman holds its 2026 no-hike baseline while sharply raising hike risk [7]; Citi maintains September no-change and expects a cutting cycle to begin thereafter [14][15]; Nomura keeps the Fed on hold indefinitely but flags tightening-biased risk [16][17]; UBS expects hold through year-end [18][19]. The interpretive fight is now over whether the speech was a genuine reaction function or another hawkish-without-follow-through signal [9][20][21].

1.1 FOMC Officials’ Remarks

  • [NEW] Chairman Kevin Warsh (listed separately): Jackson Hole keynote (8/28 10:00 ET) — per Bloomberg’s 2Y-reaction measure, potentially the most hawkish Jackson Hole speech since 2009, exceeding Powell’s 2022 and 2023 appearances [8]. He reaffirmed the 2% PCE target as “firm and fixed” [22][13][23], said “I find it difficult to describe overall financial conditions as restrictive” [24][25], and set the threshold now driving markets: unless inflation returns to target “clearly and fast enough,” “we have more work to do” [9][6][26]. He acknowledged summer PCE/CPI beat expectations but said they do not show a “meaningful improvement” in the underlying trend [22][27][28], cited the 54% share of PCE components rising more than 3% [22][10], listed seven policy principles, re-established the short-term rate as the “primary tool” [22][29], questioned forward guidance (the “hall of mirrors” risk) [9][30], and refused to pre-commit to a September hike [2][7].
  • [ESCALATED] Hawkish: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack — “the Fed should raise rates; waiting will only bring pain” [31][32]; “I do not see restrictive financial conditions” [33]. She also cautioned the Fed “doesn’t really know much” about balance-sheet effects [34] and keeps an open mind into meetings [35].
  • [ESCALATED] Hawkish-leaning: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee — “I agree inflation is the Fed’s main issue right now” [36], inflation “persists longer than anticipated” [37], and recent softer data are “clearly not enough” to conclude the Fed is out of the woods [38]. He added he was comfortable with the July hold [39] and sees no Fed–Treasury conflict [40] — the dovish counterweight has moved markedly toward the Chair’s line.

1.2 Policy Signals & Institutional Communication

  • [NEW] July FOMC minutes echo: three dissents favored an immediate hike; the minutes showed broader internal support and “several” officials saying their patience had a time limit over credibility concerns [9][7].
  • [ESCALATED] Treasury buyback engineering: the per-operation liquidity-support cap is at least doubled from $2bn to $4bn on 10–30y issues [18][41], adding $16bn/quarter ($27bn 10Y-equivalent) [18]; Goldman sizes it as offsetting ~30% of 20y/30y issuance, with the first expanded operation on Sept 9 [42]; UBS says the move conflicts with TBAC communication principles and calls a major November cut in long-dated auction sizes unlikely [18]; Morgan Stanley warns of path dependence — an implicit “fiscal put” conditioning investors to expect Treasury intervention whenever long-end yields rise [43]; Citi sees 20Y bonds supported by the new Treasury “put” plus pension demand if the 30Y retests 5.3% [15]; Zheshang’s backtests (1961 Twist ~15bp, 2001 halt ~33bp one-day) conclude supply controls are short-term buffers that cannot change the rate trend [41].
  • [NEW] Fiscal track: Bessent’s Aug 20 CNBC interview flagged an enhanced fiscal-consolidation package [41]; a Supreme Court ruling found IEEPA tariffs illegal, requiring the Treasury to refund $166bn of collected tariffs ($175bn with interest) [41]; Bessent also proposed the Fed “consider expanding” its foreign-central-bank lending facilities to shield the Treasury market from overseas shocks [7].
  • [NEW] Communication paradigm: analysts read Warsh’s seven principles as a de facto reaction function without forward guidance [1]; DWS’s George Catrambone called the speech “exactly the forward guidance the market expected at the July FOMC” [44]; Mester said “it is now up to those favoring holding rates to give a convincing reason” [9]; Yuekai Securities warns against over-reading a speech that no longer previews decisions, with policy uncertainty set to rise systematically [45]; Natixis’ Hodge argues Warsh’s “referee” framing is untenable — the Fed is a heavyweight participant [46].

2. Key Data & Market Read

  • [ONGOING] July core PCE: +0.25% m/m, above consensus, with nearly half (11bp) from one-off portfolio-management fees [47][14]; 3.34% y/y but trimmed-mean PCE stands only 10–30bp above the 2019 average [14]; headline PCE at 3.7% y/y, 65 consecutive months above target [9][7]; Citi expects the upcoming methodology revision to lower annualized core PCE by ~30bp [14].
  • [NEW] August payrolls previews diverge sharply: JPMorg an +50k, unemployment steady at 4.1% [47][12]; Citi +20k vs a 55k market median, unemployment 4.2% [14]; Nomura +60k, unemployment falling to 4.0% [16][17][48]; UBS +65k vs 56k consensus [18]. The 2026 benchmark revision lowered payrolls by 79k [14]. August CPI on Sept 11 is called “the key swing factor” — a downside surprise cools hike calls, an upside surprise nearly locks one in [9].
  • [NEW] Q3 GDP trackers diverge: Nomura raised its tracker to 3.6% annualized from 2.7% on capex/imports strength [16]; JPMorgan lifted to 2.75% on services and non-tech business spending [12]; Citi sees 1.8%, below the Fed’s ~2% potential [14].
  • [NEW] Narrative impact: the speech reset the policy function, but both JPMorgan’s Feroli and Goldman emphasize the data decide — “the more important inputs are the August NFP and CPI reports” [22]; Goldman sees a September hike only on upside CPI/PPI surprises and expects August core near 0.2% m/m [22][7]; SocGen’s Rajappa says core PCE proves inflation is “more stubborn than expected,” requiring policy action soon [49]; El-Erian counters that both the ~60% market and 49% Kalshi September probabilities are “too high” [5].

3. Financial-Conditions Signals

  • [ESCALATED] Rates — the hawkish flattening: the 2Y jumped 11–12bp to 4.34–4.35%, its second-highest level of the year and the largest one-day move since March 12 [9][3][24][8]; the 10Y rose ~5bp to 4.71–4.72% while the 30Y barely moved, closing ~5.21% [50][24][8]; 2s10s ended at 37bp (-12bp w/w) [47] and 2s30s flattened ~10bp [51]; SOFR futures implied yields rose up to ~6.5bp [6]; JPMorgan’s 5s30s steepening trend broke below its 78–81bp support [52].
  • [NEW] Magnitude: by Bloomberg’s 2Y-reaction measure this was the most hawkish Jackson Hole since 2009, exceeding Powell’s 2022/2023 speeches; the three largest Treasury curve moves since May all followed Warsh appearances (June, July, Jackson Hole) [8][46].
  • [REVERSED] Dollar: the dollar index closed 99.68, +0.55% on the day [50], with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index at a one-week-plus high and USD up against the yen and euro [8][29]; Goldman sees the hike premium retained into year-end [53]; Nomura says USD is grinding higher on stable long-end yields, slightly firm core PCE and strong Nvidia guidance [54]; Citi booked profits on EUR longs and shifted EM carry funding from USD to 50/50 CHF/CAD [55].
  • [REVERSED] Gold: spot gold turned down immediately after the speech and its intraday decline widened to more than 2% [29], with higher rate expectations pressuring the non-yielding asset [8]; the debasement trade paused, though Morgan Stanley still sees high odds of gold reclaiming $5,000 in 2027 and UBS maintains gold as a strategic de-fiatization hedge [43][19].
  • [NEW] Credit — resilient spreads, stressed HY flows: the JULI IG index tightened to 91bp, its tightest in three weeks [56]; HY spreads tightened 12bp to 300bp [47]; IG funds saw +$6bn inflows while HY funds saw -$1.2bn, the largest outflow in 21 weeks [56]; dealer IG inventories are at their lowest since mid-April; $102bn of reinvestment income is expected to offset September issuance [47][56]; UBS counters with record IG net supply ($600bn, more than double 2025) [18].
  • [NEW] Flows & plumbing: US equity funds saw a -$4.39bn outflow vs Japan +$2.66bn, with tech +$7.5bn and financials -$2.3bn [57]; global fixed income took in +$18.8bn while long-term US bond funds flipped to a small outflow after weeks of inflows, with short-duration and TIPS funds still in demand [57]; USD saw the strongest FX net demand at +$7.7bn [57]; MMF assets stood at $7.069tn [47]; Treasury weekly TGA swings (~$70bn) dwarf the buyback increment [42].

4. Global Central-Bank Linkages

  • [ESCALATED] ECB: a September hike is now near-certain across houses — Nomura expects 25bp to 2.50% [17][48], Goldman calls it “almost certain” [42], JPMorgan agrees [12]; France and Spain August headline inflation rose 0.3pp and 0.6pp, energy-driven, while the eurozone composite PMI points to ~1.4% annualized growth [12]; swap markets price the Fed, BOJ and ECB all possibly hiking in September [8].
  • [ONGOING] BOJ: a September hike remains broadly priced [8][48]; JPMorgan expects hikes in September and December [12]; Deputy Governor Himino said hikes will be discussed at each meeting [12]; Goldman raised its end-2026 10Y JGB forecast to 3.0% with front-end pricing implying quarterly hikes to a 2.0% terminal by mid-2027 [42].
  • [NEW] PBoC: Nomura expects no RRR cut or policy-rate cut before Q2 2027, citing ample liquidity and falling Treasury yields [17][48].
  • [NEW] Bank of Canada: the policy decision lands in the week ahead [58]; Goldman expects a hold with rate-cut risk if the US–Canada trade war escalates, which it sizes at -0.3pp growth / +0.3pp inflation [42][53].
  • [NEW] Others: BOE Governor Bailey called Warsh’s speech “real substance” [9]; Hungary’s MNB cut 25bp without September guidance [53]; Nomura expects the BOK to hike twice to 3.50% [17] while UBS sees the BOK less aggressive than priced [19]; RBNZ hikes in September and December [17]; India’s RBI FCNR(B) scheme closes Aug 31 after $65.4bn of inflows [54].

5. Asset Implications

This section is inference — anchored to the facts above.

QuadrantCurrent probability tiltKey asset implicationAnchoring narrative
Growth↑ + Inflation↑RisingWarsh’s resilience read (strong capex, ~20% profit growth, healthy consumption) plus 54% PCE breadth keep commodities/TIPS as the cleaner expressions; long nominal bonds are blocked by supply but cushioned by the buyback put; JPMorgan shorts 2Yx3Y inflation swaps§1.1 / §3
Growth↑ + Inflation↓FallingThe Citi/GS/UBS data-dependence camp plus the ~30bp core-PCE methodology revision support a later-hike path; equities still supported by ~17% EPS growth but ~60% hike pricing caps beta; front-end carry has been repriced hawkish§2 / §3
Growth↓ + Inflation↑Rising (tail)Oil near $89 on Iran risk and sticky core keep the stagflation pair live; gold’s 2% reversal shows the debasement trade now needs fiscal/dovish catalysts, not a hawkish Fed; long bonds hedge only via the fiscal put§2 / §3
Growth↓ + Inflation↓FallingThe Citi scenario — 1.8% Q3 growth, soft payrolls, then a cutting cycle — is the minority view; long duration re-hedges equities only if growth cracks while the buyback holds the long end§2 / §4

Stock-bond correlation call: the regime remains in the inflation-driven, positive-correlation configuration that is hardest for risk parity — but with a twist. The bear flattening is a classic hiking-trade pattern: short-end yields repriced while the long end barely moved [9][8], which improves the near-term hedging value of long duration (JPMorgan notes Warsh’s speech lowered the term premium the July FOMC had lifted, and Treasury buybacks cap term-premium upside [42][47]). The dysfunction has migrated to the front end: the 2Y’s 12bp one-day move and the market’s 50–60% September pricing mean short-dated bonds now carry policy-path risk rather than hedging it. In this configuration, rate-sensitive equities (small caps, transports) fell while tech-led indices rose, and the dollar rather than duration absorbed the repricing — the cross-asset shock absorber remains FX, with gold pausing only because the hawkish impulse is now rate-driven rather than fiscal-driven.

Risk-budget implication: Respect the newly hawkish front end — JPMorgan’s explicit unwinds of 2s/10s steepeners and its short 2Yx3Y zero-coupon inflation swap are the clean expressions of the inflation-driven regime [47]; Citi’s October fed-funds receiver and its long 20-year Treasury (backed by the Treasury “put” and pension demand at a 5.3% 30Y) are the contrary, data-softening positions [15][55]. Prefer curve trades over directional duration per Goldman — CAD steepeners, EUR flatteners, and a higher JGB forecast — rather than fighting the Fed path outright [42]. Keep gold as the strategic two-sided hedge but sized for further hawkish-repricing volatility (Morgan Stanley’s $5,000 2027 call vs today’s 2% drawdown) [43][19]. In credit, hold high-grade carry — technicals (reinvestment, low dealer inventories) dominate hawkish signals for now — but respect record IG net supply and the HY outflow signal [18][56]. Express the dollar view via EM FX carry and gold rather than a naked USD short, and note the strongest FX demand this week was for USD itself [55][57].

6. Contrarian & Tail Risks

  • Consensus fragility: the newly built ~60% September-hike consensus rests on one speech, not one data point — August CPI (Sept 11) and NFP are the stated arbiters, and a soft print would unwind the bets as quickly as they were built. El-Erian argues both the market-implied (~60%) and Kalshi (49%) probabilities are too high, citing anchored inflation expectations, AI-driven supply-side optimism and vulnerable rate-sensitive sectors like housing. The contrary risks are two-sided: an upside August CPI nearly locks in a hike (Goldman’s threshold), while a pause despite sticky data damages Fed credibility again (Aberdeen’s “another punch”), and Moneycorp/MUFG warn the market may re-run the “hawkish talk → no action” reversal that characterized Warsh’s first months. A single-source bearish view goes further, arguing the administration controls data releases, so prints could be engineered lower — treat as unverified.
  • Second-order transmission: the Treasury–Fed boundary is the live structural tension — Bessent actively manages the long end while Warsh wants markets to form the curve, a contradiction Evercore’s Guha flags as decisive for the macro outlook; Morgan Stanley warns repeated intervention creates a “fiscal put” that conditions investors to expect backstops, and if debt-service costs ever constrain the Fed, “fiscal dominance” would erode Treasury credit and push the dollar lower. Fiscal fundamentals are the tail: $40tn debt, a budget watchdog’s full-blown-crisis warning, Bridgewater’s founder predicting a US debt crisis in one to five years, and a tariff-refund bill of ~$175bn that complicates Bessent’s consolidation push. Watch the Q4 long-end risk flagged by MUFG if hawkish rhetoric is not backed by actual hikes, and the AI-capex second-derivative signal — any slowdown in big-tech capex/earnings could trigger asset-allocation migration out of US equities.
  • Source quality control: September odds are a band, not a point — 41.7% hike intraday (CME FedWatch), ~50% (futures), 55.7% (Reuters intraday), ~60% (futures/JPM), 59.7% (FedWatch next day), 49% (Kalshi) — the divergence itself is a fragility flag. Bloomberg’s “most hawkish since 2009” is explicitly a market-reaction metric (2Y move), not a rating of the speech text, and Bernanke’s 2009 speech had a larger full-day 2Y rise. The “administration controls data” claim and the satirical note to “data compilers” are single-source social items; the Odysseus posts are single-source social relays of the seven-principles framework. House calls conflict directly: Barclays/SocGen (Sept + Dec hikes) vs Citi/UBS (hold through 2026) vs Goldman (no-hike baseline, sharply raised risk) — volume of hawkish commentary is not confirmation of a hike.

Appendix: Additional Sources

  • [1] 培风客 — Warsh seven-principles reaction function; baseline shift to “hike if inflation does not fall”
  • [22] 华尔街见闻 — Feroli and Goldman: Aug NFP/CPI decisive; 2Y +7bp reaction
  • [7] Yicai — July minutes, debt >$40tn, Bridgewater crisis call, Guha on Treasury-Fed interplay
  • [52] J.P. Morgan — 30Y momentum-divergence buy signal; 5s30s trend broken; TIPS breakeven bias
  • [14] Citi — September no-change call; core PCE revision ~30bp; NFP +20k forecast
  • [55] Citi — EUR profit-taking, CHF/CAD carry funding, October receiver
  • [45] 粤开证券 — don’t over-read the speech; policy uncertainty rises systematically
  • [43] Morgan Stanley — fiscal-put path dependence; gold $5,000 in 2027; KOSPI upside
  • [19] UBS — Fed hold through 2026; S&P 8,100; gold de-fiatization; BOK less aggressive
  • [41] Zheshang — 1961/2001/2023 supply-control backtests; IEEPA refunds; consolidation difficulty

This report is a macro-mechanism analysis, not investment advice.

30-day review of this series 8/6 – 9/5

  • September-hike odds round-tripped on the data-Fed seesaw. Pricing swung from a mid-August dovish low near 27% after soft payrolls and cooling CPI to a post-Jackson-Hole peak near 66–70% as Warsh’s hawkish keynote and Barr’s “act decisively” language took over, then settled back to a coin flip after Waller’s conditional-hold tilt—with the Sept-11 CPI installed as the arbiter.

  • The long end repeatedly defied both the Fed and the Treasury. The 30-year climbed to 2007-era highs above 5.3% despite Bessent’s Aug-19 buyback expansion, whose relief faded within days; the driver narrative shifted from rate-path repricing to a term-premium and real-rate wall.

  • The policy default flipped from “hold unless data force action” to “hike unless data excuse it,” then partially reversed. Warsh’s Aug-28 debut and Barr’s remarks set the hawkish marker, but Williams and Waller’s pushback restored a genuine two-variable fight over whether disinflation or hot core readings govern the September decision.

  • Fed communication itself became a market-moving storyline. Warsh’s “play the ball, not the referee” guidance pullback, the meeting-count reform trial balloon, and the renewed Cook-removal attempt each lifted the policy-uncertainty premium, making every data release behave like a mini-FOMC.

  • The dollar weakened while gold absorbed the fiscal-credibility risk. The DXY slid from near 100 to three-month lows below 99 as Treasury activism fueled de-dollarization chatter, while gold oscillated between rate-driven corrections near $4,400 and debasement-led peaks above $4,600.

  • Global central banks tightened around the Fed’s indecision. BOJ September-hike odds consolidated near 75–84% and the ECB’s path hardened, while coordinated yen intervention and the FIMA channel added a second-order Treasury-demand layer to the long-end story.

Sources58

  1. 我觉得这是一次鹰派的发言 虎嗅 Score 63
  2. 分析师：沃什重燃九月加息可能，但关键还得看9月非农与CPI数据 格隆汇快讯 Score 60
  3. The 2-year Treasury note yield rose 0.118 to 4.348%, which is the second highest level of the year and the largest one-day move since March 12. Future... Twitter·财经快讯 Score 63
  4. 美联储9月加息25个基点的概率为59.7% 格隆汇快讯 Score 64
  5. The market-implied probability of a September Fed rate hike has jumped to nearly 60%, while Kalshi currently prices it at 49%. Both seem too high for ... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 61
  6. 沃什放鹰重燃加息预期：9月加息概率升至近六成，2027年3月前或加息两次 华尔街见闻 Score 62
  7. 沃什杰克逊霍尔首秀震惊市场：美联储要准备开始加息吗 第一财经-资讯 Score 64
  8. 2009年来最鹰杰克逊霍尔讲话！沃什首秀推升两年期美债收益率逾10个基点 华尔街见闻 Score 61
  9. 沃什“杰克逊霍尔”讲完，美联储9月“不加也得加”？ 华尔街见闻 Score 62
  10. 美联储政策预期调整：杰克逊霍尔会议释放鹰派信号，预计9月及12月加息 外资研报 Score 66
  11. Barclays and SocGen forecast Fed rate hikes in September and December. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 63
  12. 全球数据观察：需求再平衡推动增长，美联储与日央行加息预期升温 外资研报 Score 63
  13. 美联储主席Warsh杰克逊霍尔讲话：通胀未明显改善，重申2%目标与利率工具主导地位 外资研报 Score 63
  14. 美国经济周报：数据走弱令9月加息可能性降低 外资研报 Score 63
  15. 沃什主席讲话后继续做多20年期美债 外资研报 Score 61
  16. 野村美国经济学周报：沃什鹰派转向，美联储政策敏感性上升 外资研报 Score 61
  17. 下周经济前瞻：聚焦9月FOMC与ECB会议关键数据 外资研报 Score 62
  18. 贝森特看跌期权遭遇鹰派美联储：美债收益率策略分析 外资研报 Score 63
  19. 亚洲外汇与利率策略：科技、期限溢价与分化 外资研报 Score 61
  20. 沃什被迫“前瞻指引” 美联储已被逼到了绝境 华尔街见闻 Score 61
  21. 下月美联储是否加息重回五五开 市场耐心面临考验 格隆汇快讯 Score 63
  22. 沃什“放鹰”，高盛依旧不信“9月加息”、摩根大通称“还是要看8月非农和CPI” 华尔街见闻 Score 61
  23. 通胀仍是重点！美联储主席沃什称“还有工作要做” 澎湃新闻 Score 62
  24. 华尔街怎么看沃什杰克逊霍尔首秀？鹰派“修正”7月沟通，9月不加息或再伤美联储信誉 华尔街见闻 Score 60
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  26. 🔴 Fed's Warsh: Have work to do if inflation is not moving to 2% with speed. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 61
  27. 沃什回应外界担忧，高呼“首要关注物价” 格隆汇快讯 Score 62
  28. Fed's Warsh: This summer's inflation data is better than expected, but do not tell me underlying trends have meaningfully changed. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 60
  29. 沃什鹰派表态缓解美联储抗通胀决心疑虑，短债跳水、黄金盘中跌超2% 华尔街见闻 Score 63
  30. This is a clear and powerful speech that, in my opinion, meets the high expectations for Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole presentation as Federal Res... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 61
  31. 格隆汇8月28日｜美联储哈玛克：美联储该采取加息行动，等待只会带来痛苦。 格隆汇快讯 Score 60
  32. Fed's hammock: It's time for the Fed to act with rate hikes; waiting will create pain. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 63
  33. Fed's Hammack: Do not see restrictive financial conditions. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 60
  34. Fed's Hammack: Don't really know a lot about the balance sheet economy effects. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 60
  35. Fed's Hammack: Go into all Fed meetings with an open mind. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 62
  36. Fed's Goolsbee: I agree inflation is Fed's main issue right now. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 62
  37. Fed's Goolsbee: inflation persists longer than anticipated Twitter·财经快讯 Score 64
  38. 美联储古尔斯比：通胀是当前面临的主要问题 华尔街见闻 Score 60
  39. Fed's Goolsbee: I was ok with holding rates steady at July FOMC. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 62
  40. Fed's Goolsbee: I don't think Fed and Treasury are at cross purposes. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 62
  41. 【浙商李超林成炜宏观团队】美国财政部能稳住长债吗？ 李超宏观研究与资产配置 Score 62
  42. 回归前端：美联储政策重申与全球利率策略展望 外资研报 Score 63
  43. 大摩闭门会观点：短期港股流动性偏弱，仓位应更多向A股转回，九月中下旬港股可能再次走强，KOSPI指数到明年年中还有约30%上涨空间 华尔街见闻 Score 61
  44. 分析师：沃什的讲话本应作为7月会议的前瞻指引 格隆汇快讯 Score 66
  45. [粤开证券]【粤开宏观】前瞻指引的进退之困——简评沃什杰克逊霍尔会议讲话 内资宏观研究 Score 64
  46. 沃什正在搅动美债市场，无论他是否愿意 华尔街见闻 Score 63
  47. 美国固定收益市场周报：沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话偏鹰，建议平仓2s/10s陡峭交易并做空2Yx3Y通胀互换 外资研报 Score 64
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