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Fed Watch

〈Soft Inflation Data vs Hawkish Fed Rhetoric Create Policy Standoff; Margin Debt Hits Record $1.5T, Market Pricing Remains Bimodal〉

The past week's soft June CPI/PPI data has decisively removed the July hike from the table (~85-93% hold probability), but hawkish Fed rhetoric (Warsh, Logan, Williams) and the oil surge to ~$88 keep September hike odds at ~52-55%; institutional forecasts diverge sharply — Deutsche Bank sees two hikes (Sep, Dec), J.P. Morgan expects no hike through 2026, while BofA maintains a three-hike call; the NYSE margin debt hit a record $1.5 trillion, and the UBS tone tracker shows Fed communication has turned net hawkish for the first time since June 2025.

41 sources ~51 min

0. Weekly Arc

The week opened with the CPI/PPI disinflation (core CPI flat m/m, core PCE tracking 0.18% m/m) collapsing July hike probability to ~11-15%. Fed officials — Warsh, Logan, Williams, Waller — pushed back with hawkish rhetoric (“mission not accomplished,” “modestly higher rates,” inflation “unacceptably high at ~4%”), partially reversing the dovish repricing. By week’s end, the September hike settled at ~52-55%, and the oil surge to ~$88/bbl reintroduced energy inflation risk. Institutional forecasts crystallized into three camps: no-hike (JPM, HSBC, Goldman), two-hike (DB), and three-hike (BofA). The arc ends in a policy standoff: the data argues for a hold, but the committee is signaling a high bar for declaring victory.

1. Policy Narrative & Expectations

The net change over the past ~24h is a reinforced institutional divergence on the rate path. Deutsche Bank maintained its two-hike forecast (Sep, Dec) but raised its GDP growth estimate to ~2.25% and core PCE to near or above 3% by year-end [1][2]. J.P. Morgan explicitly forecasts no rate hike through 2026 — the dovish end of the institutional spectrum — and expects the Fed to hold at 3.5%-3.75% until Q3 2027 [3]. Goldman Sachs said improved inflation data “largely eliminates” the July hike possibility, and its rate strategists believe market pricing is too tight [4]. The UBS tone tracker shows the Fed’s net communication tone rose above neutral for the first time since June 2025, driven by Waller, Cook, and Williams shifting hawkish, while Jefferson and Barr remain neutral [5]. The CME FedWatch July hold probability stands at 84.5-92.75%, with September hike probability at 55.1% [6][7][8].

1.1 FOMC Officials’ Remarks

  • [NEW] Hawkish — John C. Williams (New York Fed President): Williams stated that inflation is “unacceptably high at around 4%” but projected it to fall to about 3.25% by year-end and gradually to 2% by 2027 [1]. Marginal shift vs prior history: This is a more explicit “inflation is too high” framing than his earlier “encouraging reasons” tone from July 15 — a hawkish escalation.

  • [NEW] Neutral — Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed President): Goolsbee stated that “more months of favorable data are needed to gain confidence in the inflation trajectory” [1]. Marginal shift vs prior history: First appearance in the briefing history; a cautious, data-dependent stance.

  • [NEW] Neutral — Christopher Waller (Fed Governor): Waller stated that “more months of favorable data are needed to gain confidence in the inflation trajectory” [1]. Marginal shift vs prior history: His prior remarks (July 13) were explicitly hawkish (“July hike on the table”); today’s tone is more tempered.

  • [ONGOING] Hawkish — Kevin Warsh (Chair): Warsh reiterated that the mission is “not yet accomplished” and the labor market remains strong; he said the AI price surge is real and could add to measured prices over the next 12 months [1]. In congressional testimony, he reaffirmed zero tolerance for persistent inflation and described the labor market as “broadly stable” [9]. He continues to push for reduced forward guidance [10]. Marginal shift vs prior history: Consistent with his established hawkish stance; no escalation.

  • [ONGOING] Hawkish — Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed President): Logan believes the current policy stance is “not restrictive” and favors “moderately higher rates”; she is concerned that the ongoing AI investment boom could fuel broader inflation pressures [1]. Marginal shift vs prior history: Consistent with her July 16 remarks.

  • [ONGOING] Hawkish — Jeff Schmid (Kansas City Fed President): Schmid believes that strong demand is “almost always the root of core inflation problems” [1]. Marginal shift vs prior history: Consistent with his July 16 remarks.

  • [NEW] Neutral — Philip Jefferson (Vice Chair) & Michael Barr (Vice Chair for Supervision): The UBS tone tracker shows Jefferson and Barr “remained close to neutral” [5].

1.2 Policy Signals & Institutional Communication

  • [NEW] Deutsche Bank two-hike forecast: DB forecasts 25bp hikes in September and December 2026, with a possible reversal in early 2028 back to neutral (3.5%-3.75%) [1][2]. It expects US GDP growth of ~2.25% annualized in 2026-2027 and core PCE near or above 3% at year-end [2].

  • [NEW] J.P. Morgan no-hike forecast: JPM expects the Fed to hold the policy rate at 3.5%-3.75% throughout 2026, with the next hike possible only in Q3 2027 if labor markets tighten and inflation remains above target [3]. The firm’s HDSI (Hawk-Dove Score Index) reached its highest level since mid-2024 [11].

  • [NEW] Goldman Sachs — July hike eliminated: Goldman states that improved inflation data “largely eliminates the possibility of a rate hike at the July FOMC meeting,” and its rate strategists believe market pricing is too tight [4].

  • [NEW] HSBC — market pricing overly hawkish: HSBC argues that the market’s expectation of 37bp of hikes by mid-2027 is “overly hawkish” and sees limited room for further hawkish repricing; its economists expect the fed funds rate to remain unchanged through 2026-2027 [12].

  • [NEW] UBS tone tracker — Fed net hawkish first time since June 2025: The Fed’s net communication tone rose above neutral in recent weeks, driven by Waller, Cook, and Williams turning hawkish; the Fed’s inflation communication tone is highly aligned with core PCE movements [5].

  • [NEW] Warsh task force details: Goldman analyzed the five working groups announced July 10, finding that communication transparency may see “fine-tuning” but not a major reduction, the ample-reserves regime will be maintained, and the inflation framework will revisit monetary aggregates and supply shocks [10]. Chengtong Securities notes the framework will improve long-bond risk pricing but raise term premia [13]. The CICC expects near-term uncertainty to gradually resolve as the task forces release more details [14].

  • [NEW] CME FedWatch — July hold at 84.5-92.75%: The market-implied probability of a July hold is 84.5-92.75%, with September probabilities: hold ~36%, 25bp hike 55.1%, 50bp hike 8.9% [6][7][8].

  • [NEW] Market pricing implies ~35bp of additional hikes by year-end: Morgan Stanley reports that front-end pricing shows the market expects 35bp of additional tightening by end-2026 [15].

  • [NEW] Fed has cut 75bp since April 2025: Morgan Stanley notes the Fed has already delivered 75bp of easing since April 2025 [15].

  • [ONGOING] BofA three-hike forecast maintained: BofA continues to expect 25bp hikes in September, October, and December 2026, totaling 75bp [16]. The bank believes the market underestimates the risk of further tightening [16].

2. Key Data & Market Read

  • [ESCALATED] June CPI/PPI disinflation (released July 14-15): Headline CPI fell 0.42% m/m, core CPI -0.02% m/m, both well below consensus. PPI fell 0.3% m/m [17][18]. June core PCE is tracking at 0.18% m/m and 3.3% y/y per Goldman Sachs [4]. Market read: The data “largely eliminates” July hike risk [4], triggered a bond rally (2-year fell from ~4.30% to 4.18% [19][8]), and collapsed July hike probability to ~11-15% [7]. Narrative impact: Confirms disinflation is underway, but oil surge and hawkish Fed rhetoric prevent full dovish repricing.

  • [NEW] US unemployment rate at 4.19% (1-year low): Deutsche Bank reports the unemployment rate has fallen to 4.19%, the lowest in a year, supporting the “growth resilient” narrative [2].

  • [NEW] BofA Q2 GDP tracking revised up to 1.7%: BofA raised its Q2 GDP tracking estimate to 1.7% annualized, driven by upward revisions to retail sales data [20][16].

  • [NEW] June LEI expected -0.1%: The consensus expectation for June Leading Economic Indicators is a decline of 0.1%, after a prior +0.1% [20].

  • [ONGOING] Oil surge to ~$88/bbl: Brent crude surged ~16% over the past week, driven by US-Iran hostilities and Strait of Hormuz disruption — commercial transit volume fell from 1,250 to 510 million barrels per day [3][17]. Goldman notes oil is above its Q4 2026 forecast of $80/bbl and 2027 forecast of $75/bbl, with two-way risk [4].

  • [NEW] Canada June inflation fell to 2.8% from 3.2%: Core inflation fell to 1.9%, supporting the Bank of Canada’s hold [21].

3. Financial-Conditions Signals

  • [NEW] Credit & banking — NYSE margin debt hits record $1.5 trillion: Deutsche Bank reports that NYSE margin debt reached $1.5 trillion as of June 2026, representing 4.5% of Q2 nominal GDP — the highest level in nearly a century. Since October 2023, margin debt has grown 136%, the fastest expansion outside of February-March 2000 [22]. Per Deutsche Bank, this high-leverage environment makes credit cycles appear more stable than they are, and any policy hawkish shift from Warsh could “prick the accumulated market bubble” [22].

  • [NEW] Liquidity — money market funds in defensive mode: Money market funds managing over $8 trillion are shortening weighted average maturity from 45 to 40 days, prioritizing reinvestment flexibility over yield, driven by oil price surge and hawkish Fed signals [23][24][25][26].

  • [NEW] Liquidity — CICC warns of TGA liquidity drain: CICC notes that since April, the Fed’s RMP bill purchases were cut to $10 billion, ending the phase of marginal liquidity easing. Since June, tax season and TGA balance management have further drained liquidity, with TGA expected to remain at ~$950 billion in Q3 [14].

  • [NEW] Dollar & rates — 10-year yield at 4.60%: The 10-year yield rose 5.5bp on Monday to 4.60%, pressured by geopolitical tensions and hawkish Fed rhetoric; J.P. Morgan sees near-term resistance at 4.615%-4.685% [11]. The 2-year yield fell from ~4.30% to 4.18% on the soft CPI data [19][8].

  • [NEW] Dollar & rates — foreign official vs private divergence: May TIC data shows foreign official investors sold $55 billion while foreign private investors bought $82 billion; Japan was the largest seller at $66 billion, driven by FX intervention needs. Since end-February, foreign official holdings in Fed custody have fallen by $213 billion [27].

  • [NEW] Credit — Q2 bank lending standards tightened: CICC reports that bank lending standards, which had been easing since mid-2025, tightened again in Q2 2026, consistent with policy expectation volatility [14].

  • [NEW] Credit — BofA Bull & Bear Indicator at 9.6 (sell signal): Cash levels fell to 3.6% of AUM, triggering a contrarian sell signal. Last week saw $55.8 billion in equity inflows and $119.6 billion in money market outflows [16].

4. Global Central-Bank Linkages

  • [NEW] ECB — expected to hold this week, September hike possible: J.P. Morgan expects the ECB to hold rates steady this week but still sees a September hike as the next move [21]. Goldman Sachs expects the ECB to deliver a second rate hike in September, then pause [4]. The UBS tone tracker shows the ECB’s net tone has regained a hawkish bias, driven by inflation communication that is increasingly decoupled from core HICP data — tone ahead of data [5].

  • [NEW] BOJ — communication frequency decreased, Ueda showed renewed hawkishness in June: The UBS tone tracker shows the BOJ’s communication frequency has decreased in 2026 and signal direction has weakened, though Governor Ueda showed some renewed hawkishness in early June. Tamura maintains the clearest hawkish bias [5]. CICC notes the 10-year JGB yield has risen above 2.8%, but USD/JPY has breached 160, and yen futures/options net shorts exceed 160,000 contracts — a setup similar to the August 2024 carry trade unwind [14].

  • [NEW] African central banks to keep rates elevated: Bloomberg reports that revived US-Iran hostilities are fanning fresh inflation fears in net fuel-importing African countries, keeping rates higher for longer [28].

  • [NEW] Global PMI at 2.7% annualized: J.P. Morgan reports that last month’s global PMI readings are consistent with global GDP expanding at an above-trend 2.7% annualized rate, above JPM’s Q3 2026 forecast of 2.3% [21].

  • [NEW] EM central banks diverging: J.P. Morgan expects South Africa and Indonesia to hike, Hungary and Russia to cut, and Turkey to hold this week [21].

  • [NEW] UK gilt yields rose 8bp: The 10-year gilt yield rose 8bp on Monday after the new prime minister said he would use flexibility within fiscal rules [29].

5. Asset Implications

This section is inference — no [N]. Anchored to the facts above.

QuadrantCurrent probability tiltKey asset implicationAnchoring narrative
Growth↑ + Inflation↑Falling but not collapsedSoft CPI/PPI reduces near-term stagflation pressure, but oil at ~$88 and NYSE margin debt at $1.5T keep the tail alive; BofA three-hike forecast and DB two-hike forecast maintain tightening expectations; commodities↑ TIPS↑ nominal long bonds↓; DB warns margin debt unwind could trigger violent credit repricing§1.2 (DB two-hike, BofA three-hike); §2 (oil surge, CPI: margin debt $1.5T); §3 (margin debt record, money market funds defensive)
Growth↑ + Inflation↓RisingThe “Goldilocks” window is the base case of the soft-data camp: JPM, HSBC, and Goldman all see no near-term hikes; BofA’s GDP tracking at 1.7%, DB’s 2.25% GDP growth, and strong HSBC earnings revision ratio (73%) support this quadrant; 2-year at 4.18% with July hold >84%§1.2 (JPM no-hike, HSBC overly-hawkish, Goldman July hike eliminated); §2 (CPI soft, GDP tracking 1.7%); §14 (HSBC S&P earnings +23%, buybacks $850bn)
Growth↓ + Inflation↑RisingStagflation tail is the primary risk-parity concern: oil at ~$88, margin debt record, tightening credit standards, CICC’s warning of Q3 liquidity drain, and the Korean KOSPI crash (-8% weekly) as a leading indicator; Warsh’s “mission not accomplished” keeps the inflation fight alive§1.1 (Warsh: mission not accomplished, Logan moderately higher rates); §2 (oil surge, LEI expected -0.1%); §3 (margin debt $1.5T, TGA drain, bank lending tightens); §17 (margin debt risk)
Growth↓ + Inflation↓FallingLong-duration bonds would benefit from recession+disinflation, but this requires a growth shock that is not yet apparent; the 10-year at 4.60% and the BMO warning that energy-driven inflation has not peaked cap the rally; DB’s Chengtong Securities sees “short-end high volatility, long-end steepening upward” — not a rally§2 (LEI expected -0.1%, but GDP tracking firm); §4 (global PMI at 2.7% annualized — growth resilient); §40 (Chengtong: short-end high vol, long-end steepening)

Stock-bond correlation call: The regime is leaning toward positive correlation (inflation-driven) but with a fragile tilt. Three forces argue for stocks and bonds selling together: (1) the oil surge to ~$88 and Strait of Hormuz transit collapse from 1,250 to 510 mb/d [3] reintroduce an energy-driven stagflation channel; (2) the NYSE margin debt record at $1.5T (4.5% of GDP) creates a systemic deleveraging risk that would simultaneously hit equities and credit spreads [22]; (3) the money market fund defensive shift (shortening WAM to 40 days) signals that the liquidity buffer is shrinking, reducing the bid for risk assets [25][26]. However, the soft CPI/PPI data has created a temporary negative-correlation window — bonds rallied on the disinflation news, and equities held relatively steady (S&P futures +22bp Monday) [8]. The JPM no-hike and HSBC overly-hawkish views provide a counter-narrative that could extend the negative-correlation phase if the next data print is also soft. The correlation structure is binary: a hot July CPI or renewed oil escalation flips it back to positive; another soft print extends negative.

Risk-budget implication:

  • Underweight nominal front-end duration until the September hike uncertainty resolves. The 2-year at 4.18% with September hike probability at 55% means the market is roughly fairly priced for one hike. BofA’s three-hike call (2-year target 4.50%) provides the bearish asymmetry; JPM’s no-hike provides the bullish asymmetry. The bimodal market pricing [20] means any new data triggers violent re-pricing. Use a 2-year receiver swaption (cost ~60c per MS [15]) to capture the dovish tail, collared against a short 2-year futures position to fund it.
  • Overweight the 7s30s curve steepener — Morgan Stanley’s recommended entry at 63bp [30] aligns with the “soft data → front-end rally, supply pressure → long-end elevated” dynamic. The bear-flattener risk is from a geopolitical oil shock (MS recommends a 2s5s bear flattener to hedge that [15]).
  • Underweight credit exposure given the record margin debt and the “corporate aggression → credit cycle peak” signal from MS [31]. The investment-grade OAS at 78bp and high-yield at 271bp [16] offer limited compensation for the deleveraging tail risk. CICC warns that corporate debt financing pressure is at historical highs [14].
  • Overweight gold tactically — Goldman’s commodity strategists are bullish on renewed central bank buying [4], and gold has already corrected from above $4,000 to the $3,900s [17]. The oil surge and Middle East tensions support gold as a hedge, though rising real yields (10-year TIPS yield rising since May [14]) cap the upside. A long gold position with a stop below $3,850 and a target of $4,200 provides favorable asymmetry.
  • Underweight the USD from a structural perspective — Morgan Stanley’s FX multi-factor strategy holds a neutral-bearish USD view [32], and JPM sees the USD supported but with “waning confidence” [3]. The TIC data showing foreign official selling ($55B in May) and Japan’s persistent FX intervention-driven sales ($66B) create structural headwinds. MS recommends long EM FX carry [32]. However, JPM’s EUR/USD target of 1.10 by Q4 2026 [3] and MS’s fundamental USD bearishness [32] confirm the medium-term direction.
  • Overweight long-dated inflation swaps as a hedge — the 5y5y inflation swap is below Goldman’s model-implied fair value [prior briefings], and the oil surge plus Warsh’s “AI price surge is real” comment [1] support the case for a structural inflation premium. UBS’s recommended long 10Yx20Y inflation swap [prior briefings] remains the cleanest expression.

6. Contrarian & Tail Risks

  • Consensus fragility — the margin debt record is the canary in the coal mine: Deutsche Bank’s warning is stark: NYSE margin debt at $1.5T (4.5% of GDP) is a near-century high, and the 136% growth since October 2023 is the fastest since the dot-com peak [22]. The mechanism is that a 10-15% equity correction would trigger forced deleveraging that cascades into credit, simultaneously hitting equity and bond portfolios (positive correlation). The DB report explicitly warns that Warsh’s hawkish regime shift could “prick the accumulated market bubble” [22]. This is the single largest systemic risk for risk parity.

  • Consensus fragility — the “no-hike” camp relies on a benign data flow that may not persist: JPM, HSBC, and Goldman all expect no hikes (or very few). But Deutsche Bank’s core PCE forecast of near or above 3% at year-end [2] and BofA’s three-hike forecast [16] represent the hawkish counter-case. If the oil surge (currently at ~$88) flows into July CPI (due mid-August), the entire “no-hike” narrative collapses. BMO warns that “July and August inflation reports would be needed before concluding energy-driven inflation pressures had peaked” [29].

  • Consensus fragility — the money market fund defensive shift is a liquidity warning: The $8 trillion money market complex shortening WAM from 45 to 40 days [26] is a canary: these funds are anticipating rate volatility and preserving flexibility. If a shock occurs, it reduces the bid for short-dated assets, accelerating the liquidity spiral. The CICC analysis of TGA draining liquidity (expected at ~$950B in Q3) compounds this risk [14].

  • Consensus fragility — the bimodal market pricing is unstable: BofA explicitly notes that the market is pricing a “very unlikely intermediate path” of ~1.5 hikes over three quarters, while the true distribution is either 0 or 3+ [20]. The 52-55% September hike probability is precisely at the point of maximum uncertainty — any data surprise triggers a violent repricing in either direction.

  • Second-order — Korean tech deleveraging as a global contagion vector: The KOSPI crash (-8% weekly) combined with CICC’s analysis of Korean margin debt, high leverage, and semiconductor concentration (SK Hynix and Samsung down 28% and 22% from highs) creates a potential spillover channel to US semiconductor ETFs and global tech [14][17]. CICC explicitly warns that a liquidity tightening in Korea could “trigger leveraged ETF de-leveraging and propagate through foreign fund redemptions to the US semiconductor sector” [14].

  • Second-order — Strait of Hormuz oil disruption: J.P. Morgan reports that oil flow through the strait has collapsed from 1,250 to 510 million barrels per day [3]. Iran is attempting to “redefine transit terms” for the strait. If the disruption persists through summer, oil could spike toward $100/bbl [4], reintroducing full-scale stagflation risk. JPM warns that if Qatar LNG restart is blocked, it will cause a “significant risk premium in winter pricing” [3].

  • Second-order — El Niño food price shock: NOAA forecasts a 97% probability of El Niño persisting through early 2027 and 81% probability of a very strong event in late 2026 [3]. Major sugar supply regions (India, Thailand, Brazil — accounting for 65% of global exports) are simultaneously at weather risk, which could drive a food price inflation shock independent of oil.

  • Source quality control: The Deutsche Bank margin debt report [22] is primary institutional research with detailed data (136% growth, 4.5% of GDP) — the most authoritative source on leverage risk. The CICC liquidity analysis [14] is primary research from a top China sell-side house. The UBS tone tracker [5] is a quantitative model — innovative but single-source and model-dependent. The DoubleLine call [33] is a well-known asset manager’s stated positioning. The BMO strategist comments [29] are secondary (via CNBC). The El Niño forecast [3] is from NOAA (official US government agency). The Strait of Hormuz flow data [3] is from J.P. Morgan’s commodity desk — primary institutional data.

Appendix: Additional Sources

  • [34]格隆汇 — Christian Lenk (DZ Bank) on rate hike speculation
  • [15]摩根士丹利 — Interest rate options strategy (payer spread, receiver, curve cap, bear flattener)
  • [32]摩根士丹利 — FX multi-factor strategy neutral-bearish USD
  • [21]外资研报 — J.P. Morgan global macro: EM central bank divergence, Canada inflation
  • [11]J.P. Morgan — HDSI at highest since mid-2024, 10-year resistance at 4.615-4.685%
  • [12]HSBC — Five ‘C’ factors supporting equities; market pricing overly hawkish
  • [35]高盛 — Core PCE inflation breadth analysis; Goldman economist Jessica Rindels
  • [30]摩根士丹利 — 7s30s steepener entry at 63bp; SFRM7M8 steepener; 2y SOFR swap spread
  • [31]摩根士丹利 — Overweight equities, underweight credit; long volatility
  • [36]美银美林 — Multi-asset trend framework; VRP elevated
  • [27]美银美林 — TIC analysis; foreign official vs private divergence
  • [28]Bloomberg — African central banks keeping rates elevated
  • [24]金十-快讯 — Money market funds defensive strategy
  • [37]Daniel Lacalle — Hedgeye argues against rate hike
  • [38]Financial Juice — Conference Board June US Leading Index
  • [39]长江证券 — Warsh task force analysis; inflation framework re-evaluation risk
  • [40]金十-快讯 — Market attention shifts to Fed rate decision
  • [41]海通国际 — China macro and AI analysis (no Fed relevance)
  • [9]兴业证券 — FOMC June projections; 2026世界杯 impact on market vol

This report is a macro-mechanism analysis, not investment advice.

30-day review of this series 6/18 – 7/18

  • Hawkish FOMC debut and the disinflation counterwave: Chair Warsh’s June meeting—a 9-9 dot-plot tie for 2026 hikes, stripped forward guidance, and sharply higher inflation forecasts—triggered a violent repricing of rate expectations. Over the following weeks, soft June CPI and PPI readings collapsed July hike probability to near 11%, but a wall of Fed speakers (Logan, Jefferson, Schmid) warned against declaring victory, keeping the standoff alive.

  • Labor market softening tests the hawkish consensus: The June payrolls miss of +57k—well below consensus—undermined the “employment overheating” pillar and pushed the first fully priced hike from October to December. Yet the FOMC minutes and subsequent official commentary continued to emphasize inflation persistence, preventing a full dovish pivot.

  • Warsh’s communication overhaul raises volatility: The new chair abolished forward guidance, slashed the FOMC statement to 130 words, and launched five task forces to review communication, balance sheet, and data use. This structural shift made every data release and meeting a “live” event, amplifying market sensitivity to incoming prints.

  • Dollar and rate-path divergence widens: The dollar rallied to a one-year high on the hawkish repricing, then retreated as disinflation data emerged, while BofA’s three-hike forecast stood in stark contrast to market pricing of less than one hike. The gap between institutional forecasts and market pricing remained the widest in the cycle.

  • Global central bank divergence intensifies: The BOJ raised rates to 1.0% and signaled further hikes, the ECB resumed tightening, and the BOE held, while the Fed’s uncertain path created asymmetric cross-currents for EM FX and carry trades, with the yen carry trade reaching 2008-level risk.

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  21. 每日经济简报：尽管上半年令人失望，但下半年周期性提振依然 intact 且存在上行空间 外资研报 Score 61
  22. (非)特许领域：零售投资者是否准备好迎接政策体制转变？ 外资研报 Score 61
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