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Fed Watch

〈Fed Officials Push Back Against CPI-Induced Dovish Pivot; Market Still Prices 89% Hold; BOJ Likely to Hold Rates Steady〉

A chorus of Fed officials — Logan, Jefferson, and Schmid — pushed back against the CPI-induced dovish repricing, with Logan explicitly advocating for "modestly higher interest rates" and Jefferson warning that a "rapid series of shocks could entrench inflation," while the market still prices a July hold at 89% and has slashed end-2026 hike pricing to 27bp; BofA maintains its three-hike forecast, and the BOJ is expected to keep rates unchanged at its July meeting, reinforcing policy divergence.

49 sources ~49 min

0. Weekly Arc

The week opened with Waller’s July 13 hawkish salvo, then violently reversed on the June CPI and PPI disinflation (July hold probability collapsing to 11-20%). By July 16-17, a wall of Fed speaker pushback — Logan’s “modestly higher rates,” Jefferson’s “entrenched inflation” warning, and Schmid’s “persistent” inflation — partially halted the dovish repricing, with the 2-year settling at 4.19% and end-2026 hike pricing at 27bp. The arc ends in a tug-of-war: data argues for a hold, but the committee is signaling that one soft print is insufficient.

1. Policy Narrative & Expectations

The net change over the past ~24h is a hawkish-leaning pushback against the CPI/PPI-induced dovish repricing. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan explicitly advocated for “modestly higher interest rates” to balance the dual mandate outlook, signaling she could dissent against a July hold [1][2][3]. Vice Chair Jefferson’s speech was balanced but carried hawkish conditional language — “if inflation does not cool soon, it could be appropriate to reconsider policy” — and warned that a “rapid series of shocks risks inflation becoming entrenched” [4][5][6]. Kansas City Fed President Schmid said inflation is “persistent across a broad selection of goods and services and remains concerning” [7][8]. BofA Economics revised its forecast to three 25bp hikes (September, October, December) with a 4.25%-4.50% terminal rate, the most hawkish major house [9]. The market’s year-end hike pricing has collapsed to 27bp from 43bp pre-CPI [10], creating a large gap with BofA’s 75bp forecast [11].

1.1 FOMC Officials’ Remarks

  • [NEW] Hawkish — Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed President, July 16 speech): Logan advocated for “modestly higher interest rates” to better balance the outlook and risks for the dual mandate [1][2][12]. Key remarks: (1) “I currently believe modestly higher interest rates would better balance the outlook and risks for the FOMC’s dual mandate goals” [2]; (2) “One month of relief is not enough. It is time to finish the job of restoring price stability” [2]; (3) Her best judgment is that inflation is heading “toward the mid 2’s — not all the way back to 2%” [2]; (4) Inflation has not “sustainably” returned to 2% [13]; (5) Labor, consumption, and financial data suggest monetary policy is “not restraining the economy” [14][15]; (6) She expressed long-term optimism for AI-driven productivity but warned that strong AI investment demand could create near-term inflationary pressures [16]; (7) She suggested the bank regulatory liquidity regime “could be optimized, leading to a smaller Fed balance sheet” [17][18]. Marginal shift vs prior history: This is Logan’s first appearance in the briefing history. Her tone is one of the most explicitly hawkish — a direct push to hike, not just “consider” — and she is the first official to explicitly say inflation will not return to 2%.

  • [NEW] Neutral-to-hawkish — Philip N. Jefferson (Fed Vice Chair, July 16 speech): Jefferson delivered a balanced speech with hawkish conditional language. Key remarks: (1) Current policy “should continue to support the labor market while allowing inflation to resume its decline toward our 2% target” [4][6]; (2) “If actual inflation does not start to cool down soon, I believe that it could be appropriate to reconsider our current policy stance” [4][19]; (3) A “rapid series of shocks could embed inflation and destabilize inflation expectations” [5][20]; (4) The current scenario “highlights policy dilemma as dual mandate objectives clash” [21][22]; (5) Energy shock and trade policy disruption “impact output and prices in the near term” [23][24]; (6) He is “firmly committed to bringing inflation back to our 2% goal, aligned with dual mandate” [25][26]. Marginal shift vs prior history: Jefferson appears for the first time in this briefing history. His tone is carefully balanced — neither dovish nor explicitly hawkish — but the “reconsider policy” language and “entrenched inflation” warning lean hawkish relative to the CPI-induced dovish market pricing.

  • [NEW] Hawkish — Jeff Schmid (Kansas City Fed President, July 16 speech): Schmid expressed concern with high inflation and warned the Fed “might soon need to raise rates” [7]. Key remarks: (1) Inflation is “persistent across a broad selection of goods and services and remains concerning” [8]; (2) He is “focused on inflation when setting monetary policy” [27]; (3) Accountability requires the Fed to “explain its decision process, increase transparency, and enable open criticism” [28]. Marginal shift vs prior history: Schmid appears for the first time. His tone is unambiguously hawkish — “might soon need to raise rates” is the strongest near-term phrasing of any official today.

1.2 Policy Signals & Institutional Communication

  • [NEW] CME FedWatch — July hold at 88.8%, hike at 11.2%: The market-implied probability of a July 25bp hike remains at 11.2%, unchanged from yesterday. September probabilities: hold 48.8%, 25bp hike 46.2%, 50bp hike 5.1% [29]. This represents a dovish repricing from pre-CPI levels.

  • [NEW] BofA Economics revises to three rate hikes: BofA now expects the Fed to hike 25bp in September, October, and December 2026, reaching a terminal rate of 4.25%-4.50%, compared to its prior forecast of no hikes [9]. The market OIS prices only 28bp of hikes, well below BofA’s 75bp [11][30].

  • [NEW] BofA maintains 4.5% year-end yield forecast: BofA maintains its year-end 2-year and 10-year yield forecast at 4.5% [30]. Current levels: 2-year at 4.14%, 10-year at 4.55% [30].

  • [NEW] Fed confirms 2% inflation target: The Fed confirmed its 2% inflation target but did not explicitly state that it continues to use PCE as the measurement standard [31].

  • [NEW] Goldman Sachs — Fed switched from QT to net purchases in H1: The Fed absorbed about $250 billion in net Treasury bill purchases in H1 and is expected to buy $130-140 billion more by year-end, marking a significant shift in the balance sheet trajectory [32].

  • [ONGOING] Atlanta Fed GDPNow: No update cited; the growth narrative remains active.

  • [ONGOING] Morgan Stanley — Fed to hold in near term, cut in 2027 H1: Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to remain data-dependent and hold in the near term, with a terminal rate of 3.125% and two cuts in H1 2027 [33]. This is the dovish end of the institutional spectrum.

2. Key Data & Market Read

  • [NEW] June CPI (released July 14, already covered): Headline CPI fell 0.4% m/m, +3.5% y/y (vs consensus +3.8%). Core CPI flat m/m, +2.6% y/y (vs consensus +2.8%) [34]. Market read: The “soft” print triggered a massive dovish repricing, with year-end hike pricing collapsing from 43bp to 27bp [10]. Narrative impact: The data supports the disinflation narrative, but Fed officials — Logan, Jefferson, Schmid — are explicitly pushing back. The BofA analysis calls the disinflation “unsustainable as an anomaly point” [34]; Citi warns the cyclical inflation decline “lacks the durability to change the Fed’s narrative.”

  • [NEW] BofA June core PCE tracking estimate lowered to 0.19% m/m: BofA’s June core PCE tracking estimate has been lowered by 10bp to 0.19% m/m, with year-over-year falling to 3.3% [30]. This supports the disinflation narrative but remains well above the 2% target.

  • [NEW] China Q2 GDP below expectations: China’s Q2 GDP grew at a 2.4% q/q SAAR, below expectations, and global core inflation remains sticky [35]. Narrative impact: Weaker Chinese growth adds to the global growth-fragility narrative, which could pressure commodity demand and reduce inflation pressure, but also reduces the global growth tailwind.

  • [NEW] US existing home sales (June) missed expectations: June existing home sales fell 2.4% m/m, below market expectations [36]. 30-year mortgage rates remain elevated at 6.4%-6.6% [37]. Narrative impact: The housing market remains constrained by elevated rates, supporting the “growth↓” narrative leg.

  • [NEW] Atlanta Fed GDPNow (no update): No direct update cited in today’s batch; the tracking estimate remains in the 1.4-2.2% range.

3. Financial-Conditions Signals

  • [NEW] Dollar & rates — real rate differentials widened supporting USD: Despite narrowing nominal spreads from the UST yield decline, real rate differentials “widened slightly,” supporting the dollar [11]. The dollar’s positive asymmetry is intact.

  • [NEW] Dollar & rates — UST yield curve steepening: The 10-year yield is at ~4.55% and the 2-year at ~4.14%, with the curve steeper than pre-CPI levels [30]. The bear-steepening pattern of prior weeks has paused but not reversed.

  • [NEW] Dollar & rates — Goldman: MMF AUM grew $200bn YTD, commercial banks increased Treasury holdings by $77bn: This provides a stable liquidity backstop for the Treasury market [32].

  • [NEW] Credit — AI-driven IG issuance revised up to $2.1tn: BofA revised its 2026 IG issuance forecast from $1.85tn to $2.1tn, driven by hyperscaler AI infrastructure borrowing [30]. This creates a technical headwind for credit markets, limiting spread tightening.

  • [NEW] Credit — BofA Bull & Bear Indicator at 9.5 (extreme): BofA’s indicator is at an extreme 9.5 level, historically associated with increased risk-off vulnerability, pointing to a possible correction in late August to autumn [30].

  • [NEW] Liquidity — Goldman: Fed’s shift from QT to net purchases is the biggest UST market change in H1: The Fed’s net Treasury bill purchases absorb supply and support front-end liquidity [32].

  • [ONGOING] Dollar — Morgan Stanley FX multi-factor strategy holds modest USD long: This is a systematic signal that diverges from Morgan Stanley’s fundamental view that a more dovish Fed will push the dollar lower [38].

  • [ONGOING] Dollar — USD positioning may be overstated: BofA notes USD long positions in FX futures may be overstated, as surveys show investors remain cautious on aggressive rate hikes, leaving room for USD upside on surprises [11].

4. Global Central-Bank Linkages

  • [NEW] BOJ — expected to keep rates unchanged at July meeting: Per sources, the BOJ is likely to raise its growth forecast while leaving the policy rate unchanged at its July 2026 meeting, after hiking to the highest since 1995 [39].

  • [NEW] ECB — raising rates, contributing to policy divergence: Nomura notes that the ECB is raising rates while the Fed is on hold, contributing to policy divergence that supports the medium-term USD-weakening view [10].

  • [NEW] Bank of Korea — likely to form a hiking cycle to offset rate differentials: The KRW-USD rate differential is about 125bp inverted, and with USD rates remaining high, the Bank of Korea may signal a “hiking cycle” to offset spread pressure [40].

  • [NEW] China FX regulator — notes complex external environment: China’s foreign exchange regulator stated that the current external environment is complex and called for ongoing monitoring of global geopolitical shifts, inflation, and monetary policy changes in major economies [41].

  • [ONGOING] Global tightening cycle: Citi predicts 17 of 27 central banks to have higher year-end rates: Citi forecasts that 17 of 27 tracked central banks will have higher year-end policy rates than pre-conflict levels, underscoring the global inflation-fighting resolve [42].

5. Asset Implications

This section is inference — no [N]. Anchored to the facts above.

QuadrantCurrent probability tiltKey asset implicationAnchoring narrative
Growth↑ + Inflation↑Falling sharplyThe CPI/PPI disinflation and BofA’s core PCE tracking at 0.19% m/m weaken this quadrant; Logan’s “mid-2s” inflation call and the AI capex inflation tail remain live, but the energy-driven disinflation is real; commodities still benefit from AI demand, but the immediate hawkish catalyst is fading; BofA’s three-hike forecast is the contrarian call that would re-energize this quadrant§1.1 (Logan: mid-2s inflation; Jefferson: inflation entrenched risk); §1.2 (BofA three-hike forecast); §2 (CPI soft, core PCE tracking 0.19%); §3 (AI-driven IG issuance to $2.1tn, Bull & Bear at 9.5)
Growth↑ + Inflation↓RisingThe “Goldilocks” window re-opened decisively on the CPI data; the BofA core PCE tracking at 3.3% y/y, strong productivity growth (2.4% annualized over 8 quarters), and GDP tracking at 1.4-2.2% support this quadrant; equities rallied (S&P +0.38%, Nasdaq +0.9%), bonds rallied (2-year -8bp to 4.19%); the pushback from Logan, Jefferson, and Schmid prevents a full repricing, limiting the upside§2 (CPI miss, core PCE tracking lowered); §1.1 (Logan: policy not restraining economy; Jefferson: policy well positioned); §3 (2-year at 4.19%; real rate differentials widened supporting USD); §5 (MS: Fed holds, cuts in 2027 H1)
Growth↓ + Inflation↑FallingStagflation probabilities decline as both CPI and PPI surprise to the downside; the housing market weakness (existing home sales -2.4%) and China Q2 GDP miss add a growth-worry tail, but the disinflation data flow is moving against Stagflation; the AI-driven IG issuance and supply-side inflation from tariffs remain live tails§2 (existing home sales missed, China Q2 GDP below expectations); §1.1 (Logan: AI investment demand creating near-term inflation pressure); §1.2 (DB: deglobalization may push up core inflation 10-40bp)
Growth↓ + Inflation↓RisingLong-duration bonds rallied on the CPI/PPI data; the BofA core PCE tracking at 3.3% y/y and the Reuters analysis that the 2-year breakeven rate is approaching a “structural support zone” (1.75%-1.90%) that, if broken, could signal a return to pre-pandemic low-inflation regime [43]; the Fed’s shift from QT to net purchases provides a technical support for the front-end; the key risk is the Fed pushback preventing a full recession-driven bond rally§2 (CPI soft, core PCE tracking lower, existing home sales missed); §1.2 (MS: Fed to cut in 2027 H1, 10-year to 4.20%); §3 (Fed net purchases, MMF AUM up $200bn); §5 (BofA 10-year at 4.55%, breakeven approaching support)

Stock-bond correlation call: The regime has temporarily shifted toward negative correlation (growth-driven) within the CPI/PPI data window. The bond rally (2-year -8bp, 10-year -2.8bp) and equity rally (S&P +0.38%, Nasdaq +0.9%) on the CPI data are consistent with a growth-down, inflation-down regime where bonds hedge equities [34]. The 2-year yield collapsing to ~4.19% and July hike probability at 11% suggest the market is pricing a benign scenario. However, the Fed pushback — Logan’s “modestly higher rates,” Jefferson’s “reconsider policy” condition, and Schmid’s “might soon need to raise rates” — is re-introducing a hawkish term-premium component. The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator at an extreme 9.5 [30] and the AI-driven IG issuance at $2.1tn [30] are structural headwinds for both bonds and credit. The correlation structure is fragile: a hot July CPI or a renewed Iran oil shock could flip it back to positive.

Risk-budget implication:

  • Overweight intermediate nominal duration tactically (2-5 year) — the 2-year at 4.19% with July hike probability at 11% is attractive if the disinflation narrative extends. The CPI data gives the Fed room to hold, and the BofA core PCE tracking at 0.19% m/m is consistent with continued disinflation. A long 2-year position with a stop at 4.35% captures favorable asymmetry: upside to 4.00% on further dovish repricing, capped by the Fed pushback at ~4.30%.
  • Overweight the front-end curve steepener (2s10s) — if the CPI/PPI disinflation is durable, the front end rallies more than the long end (supply pressure and AI-driven demand keep long-end elevated). The 2-10 spread could widen from current ~36bp toward 45-55bp. Morgan Stanley’s recommendation to do a “curve steepener (7s30s)” is in this direction [33].
  • Underweight nominal long-duration (10y+) — BofA maintains a year-end 10-year yield target of 4.50%, suggesting limited rally potential from current 4.55% [30]. The Fed’s shift from QT to net purchases is supportive for the front-end, not the long-end. The MS forecast of 4.20% by Q2 2027 is a 35bp decline from current levels, but over a 9-month horizon.
  • Overweight gold with a tactical hedge — gold rose on the CPI data but remains below $4,000 [44]. MS forecasts gold at $4,900/oz by Q2 2027 [33], and the dovish repricing from CPI supports gold. However, Logan’s “modestly higher rates” pushback and the real rate differential’s widening [11] limit gold’s immediate upside. A size-limited gold long with a stop below $3,900 captures the positive skew from a dovish pivot.
  • Underweight the USD — BofA expects three rate hikes but recommends a tactical short USD against low-yielding currencies [9]; Nomura initiates short USD/CNH with a target of 6.55 by end-October [10]; MS expects the EUR/USD to rise to 1.16 by Q2 2027 [33]. The CPI-driven dovish repricing supports a weaker USD. The FX hedging unwind (sell orders accelerating if USD weakens) is a tail risk [10].
  • Overweight EM FX carry — JPMorgan maintains an overweight EM FX position, supported by resilient global cyclical outlook despite energy price volatility and Fed policy uncertainty [35]. EM bond funds saw $1.7bn inflow in June and $28.4bn YTD [35].

6. Contrarian & Tail Risks

  • Consensus fragility — the CPI disinflation is an “unsustainable anomaly”: Multiple sell-side analysts (BofA, CICC, Huachuang Securities) argue that the June core CPI m/m decline to 0.0% is “an anomaly point, unsustainable, and likely to return to the 0.2% month-on-month median level” [34]. If subsequent CPI data prints hot (energy rebound, AI-driven demand), the entire disinflation trade reverses violently.

  • Consensus fragility — the gap between BofA’s three-hike forecast and market pricing is the widest in the cycle: BofA Economics expects 75bp of hikes (September, October, December) [9], while the market OIS prices only 28bp [10]. The 47bp gap is a material risk for the front-end. If BofA is right, the 2-year yield would need to rise ~36bp from current 4.19% toward 4.55%.

  • Consensus fragility — BofA Bull & Bear Indicator at 9.5 (extreme sell signal): The indicator is at a level historically associated with increased risk-off vulnerability and a “high probability of a correction” in the August to autumn window [30]. The last time the indicator was this high — prior to the August 2023 selloff — triggered a sharp equity decline.

  • Consensus fragility — AI capex double risk (supply and demand): The AI-driven IG supply forecast is revised up to $2.1tn [30], creating a structural technical headwind for credit markets. Simultaneously, Logan warned that “if AI were to pull back, financial conditions would change significantly” [16]. A simultaneous supply overhang + demand slowdown would be the worst outcome for credit.

  • Consensus fragility — the USD-for-dollar policy divergence trade is untested: BofA’s thesis — “AI capex supports USD; geopolitical risk supports USD; hawkish Fed supports USD” — is the consensus [11]. Nomura directly opposes this: “medium-term USD weakening view driven by slower US growth, Fed-other CB policy divergence, portfolio rebalancing, and Fed independence concerns” [10]. This is the most clearly defined consensus-vs-contrarian debate in the entire briefing history.

  • Second-order — yen carry trade at 2008-level risk: BofA warns that the JPY carry trade is at the highest level since 2008 [9]. A reversal (via BOJ intervention or a shift in global risk appetite) would cause sharp yen appreciation and global market dislocation, tightening global financial conditions.

  • Second-order — US-Iran geopolitical tail: Nomura notes that US-Iran tensions (threat to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, affecting 8.7% of global oil supply) “limit USD downside and pose a tail risk to oil supply” [10]. If the conflict escalates further, the oil spike would reignite inflation expectations and force the Fed’s hand.

  • Second-order — Fed independence concerns: Nomura explicitly flags “returning concerns about Fed independence” as a risk factor weighing on the USD medium-term [10]. If the political pressure on the Fed (Trump/Bessent comments) escalates, the dollar could de-rate.

  • Source quality control: Logan’s July 16 speech is sourced from multiple sources including WSJ (Nick Timiraos) [2], Bloomberg [7], and multiple secondary sources [1][3][13][12]. The “modestly higher rates” and “one month is not enough” quotes are confirmed by WSJ, the most authoritative source on FOMC dynamics. Jefferson’s speech is sourced from Bloomberg [6] and multiple secondary sources [4][19][45][46]; the verbatim quote from Bloomberg is the most reliable. The BofA three-hike forecast [9] is primary institutional research. The Nomura analysis [10] is primary. The CME FedWatch data [29] is official. The JPMorgan EM analysis [35] is primary.

Appendix: Additional Sources

  • [32] Goldman Sachs — H1 UST supply-demand review; Fed moved from QT to net purchases; foreign private bought $260bn through May; banks increased UST holdings by $77bn; MMF AUM up $200bn YTD
  • [47] 德意志银行 — AI task force analysis; productivity growth 2.4% over 8 quarters; neutral real rate (r*) at 1.5-1.75%; deglobalization may push up core inflation 10-40bp
  • [38] Morgan Stanley — FX multi-factor strategy holds modest USD long, diverging from fundamental USD bearish view
  • [37] Morgan Stanley — Consumer sentiment vs spending divergence; 30-year mortgage rate at 6.4-6.6%; 60% of consumers cite inflation as top concern
  • [42] Citi — Global central banks net tightening trend in June; 17 of 27 tracked CBs have higher year-end rates than pre-conflict; 2026/27 super El Niño probability rises to 81%; investors should be alert to inflation rebound risk
  • [36] 中金公司 — US existing home sales -2.4% in June; DXY +0.1% to 100.95; 2-year +7bp to 4.21%; 10-year +7bp to 4.56%; gold -1.3% to $4,120; Brent +4.6% to $75; S&P +1.2%, Nasdaq +1.7%; SOX 20-day momentum fell from 32% to -3%
  • [48] 国金期货 — H1 2026 market theme shifted from loose liquidity to rate-hike expectations; Q3 may shift back to liquidity policy debate; Q4 to observe whether Fed actually hikes; risks include unexpected Fed hawkishness, USD strength, or strong-dollar thesis disproven leading to QE
  • [10] Nomura — USD short-term may weaken but limited downside; medium-term bearish USD; initiate short USD/CNH target 6.55 by end-Oct; US-Iran geopolitical tail; Fed independence concerns; FX hedging unwind risk
  • [43] Reuters — 2-year breakeven rate at 1.85% approaching structural support zone 1.75-1.90%; if broken, could signal return to pandemic-level low-inflation regime
  • [49] 广发证券 — PBOC maintains 7-day OMO rate as main policy rate; researching increased frequency of overnight OMO; negative carry for bonds is a forward-positive signal

This report is a macro-mechanism analysis, not investment advice.

30-day review of this series 6/18 – 7/18

  • Hawkish FOMC debut and the disinflation counterwave: Chair Warsh’s June meeting—a 9-9 dot-plot tie for 2026 hikes, stripped forward guidance, and sharply higher inflation forecasts—triggered a violent repricing of rate expectations. Over the following weeks, soft June CPI and PPI readings collapsed July hike probability to near 11%, but a wall of Fed speakers (Logan, Jefferson, Schmid) warned against declaring victory, keeping the standoff alive.

  • Labor market softening tests the hawkish consensus: The June payrolls miss of +57k—well below consensus—undermined the “employment overheating” pillar and pushed the first fully priced hike from October to December. Yet the FOMC minutes and subsequent official commentary continued to emphasize inflation persistence, preventing a full dovish pivot.

  • Warsh’s communication overhaul raises volatility: The new chair abolished forward guidance, slashed the FOMC statement to 130 words, and launched five task forces to review communication, balance sheet, and data use. This structural shift made every data release and meeting a “live” event, amplifying market sensitivity to incoming prints.

  • Dollar and rate-path divergence widens: The dollar rallied to a one-year high on the hawkish repricing, then retreated as disinflation data emerged, while BofA’s three-hike forecast stood in stark contrast to market pricing of less than one hike. The gap between institutional forecasts and market pricing remained the widest in the cycle.

  • Global central bank divergence intensifies: The BOJ raised rates to 1.0% and signaled further hikes, the ECB resumed tightening, and the BOE held, while the Fed’s uncertain path created asymmetric cross-currents for EM FX and carry trades, with the yen carry trade reaching 2008-level risk.

Sources49

  1. 洛根表示，基于通胀持续高于2%目标、劳动力市场稳健及金融条件宽松等现状，主张美联储采取适度提高利率的政策立场，以更好平衡就业与物价稳定双重目标。 金十-快讯 Score 68
  2. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan sounds like someone who is prepared to vote for a rate increase: “I currently believe modestly higher interest rates... Twitter·财经快讯 Score 61
  3. 美联储洛根：应加息以应对通胀 格隆汇快讯 Score 66
  4. Another Fed official, Phil Jefferson, entertains higher rates later this year, while taking care not to endorse a July hike. The current policy rate ... Twitter·财经快讯 Score 66
  5. Fed's Jefferson: Quick series of shocks risks inflation becoming entrenched, inflation expectations unanchored Twitter·财经快讯 Score 64
  6. Jefferson Says Policy Well Positioned, Can Reconsider If Needed Bloomberg Score 65
  7. Fed's Logan Favors Modestly Higher Rates to Lower Inflation Bloomberg Score 60
  8. Fed's Schmid: inflation is proving persistent across a broad selection of goods and services, and remains concerning. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 61
  9. 宏观风险摘要：日本溢出效应与全球利率前景 外资研报 Score 63
  10. 野村：倾向但尚未完全看空近期美元，维持中期美元走弱观点 外资研报 Score 61
  11. 美元：下半年的三大上涨动力：霍尔木兹海峡、鹰派美联储与超大规模数据中心 外资研报 Score 61
  12. 🔴 Fed's Logan: Modestly higher interest rates would better balance outlook, risks. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 64
  13. 格隆汇7月17日｜美联储洛根：通胀似乎并未可持续地回落至2%。 格隆汇快讯 Score 61
  14. 格隆汇7月17日｜美联储洛根：劳动力、消费和金融数据表明货币政策并未抑制经济。 格隆汇快讯 Score 66
  15. Fed's Logan: Labor, consumption and financial data indicate that monetary policy is not restraining the economy. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 65
  16. 格隆汇7月17日｜美联储洛根：长期来看对人工智能带来的生产率提升非常乐观。但目前AI投资需求强劲且真实存在，短期内会带来通胀压力。 格隆汇快讯 Score 60
  17. 格隆汇7月17日｜美联储洛根：银行监管流动性体系或可进一步优化，从而使美联储资产负债表规模更小。 格隆汇快讯 Score 65
  18. Fed's Logan: It is possible there could be a more optimal regulatory liquidity regime for banks that would lead to a smaller Fed balance sheet. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 60
  19. 美联储副主席杰斐逊称目前货币政策状态良好 如有必要将会重新考虑 格隆汇快讯 Score 64
  20. Fed's Jefferson: rapid series of shocks could embed inflation, destabilize inflation expectations Twitter·财经快讯 Score 65
  21. Fed's Jefferson: Current scenario highlights policy dilemma as dual mandate objectives clash Twitter·财经快讯 Score 64
  22. Fed’s Jefferson: current situation illustrates policy challenge as dual mandate objectives conflict Twitter·财经快讯 Score 63
  23. Fed's Jefferson: Energy shock overlaps with trade policy disruption: impacts near-term output and prices Twitter·财经快讯 Score 65
  24. Fed's Jefferson: energy shock coincides with trade policy disruption, impacting output and prices in near term Twitter·财经快讯 Score 64
  25. Fed's Jefferson: Firmly committed to bringing inflation back to our 2% goal, aligned with dual mandate Twitter·财经快讯 Score 60
  26. Fed's Jefferson: firmly committed to bringing inflation back to 2% target, aligning with dual mandate Twitter·财经快讯 Score 61
  27. Schmid: focused on inflation when setting monetary policy Twitter·财经快讯 Score 61
  28. Schmid: Accountability requires Fed to explain decision process, increase transparency and enable open criticism Twitter·财经快讯 Score 63
  29. 美联储7月维持利率不变的概率88.8% 格隆汇快讯 Score 64
  30. 美银固收摘要：通胀降温但高利率仍关键，看好AAA CLO与银行优先股 外资研报 Score 61
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