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Fed Watch

June Payrolls Miss Triggers Hawkish Repricing Unwind; Front-End Hike Probability Collapses as Warsh Confirms Inflation Risks Have Declined

June nonfarm payrolls added just 57k (consensus ~110k), with large downward revisions and a labor-force participation drop, collapsing the July hike probability from ~31% to ~18% and September from ~64% to ~52%, while Warsh confirmed at Sintra that inflation risks have declined over the past four weeks — the combination of a soft jobs report and a dovish-leaning Chair is the first major test of the post-June-FOMC hawkish repricing, with Citi now calling for October rate cuts.

57 sources ~52 min

0. Weekly Arc

The week opened with the June 17 FOMC hawkish repricing fully consolidated — the 9-9 dot-plot tie for hikes and Warsh’s communication reform. By Wednesday, Warsh’s Sintra speech delivered a notably less hawkish tone than market pricing implied, acknowledging that inflation expectations have come down and inflation risks have receded [1][2]. The June nonfarm payrolls miss on Thursday — 57k vs ~110k consensus, with total 74k in downward revisions and a participation-rate collapse [3][4][5][6] — triggered a wholesale unwind of front-end hike premium: July hike probability fell from ~31% to ~18%, September from ~64% to ~52%, while 2-year yields fell 6bp [7][8][9][10]. The arc is: hawkish consolidation → Warsh dovish nuance → payroll-driven repricing → Citi calls for October rate cuts.

1. Policy Narrative & Expectations

The net change over the past ~24h is a significant dovish shift driven by the combination of Warsh’s Sintra tone and the June payrolls miss. Warsh confirmed that inflation risks have declined over the past four weeks and that he will not provide forward guidance [3][1][8], while the payrolls print of 57k (half of consensus, with 74k in prior-month downward revisions) has eliminated the case for imminent rate hikes according to multiple analysts [3][11][12]. Citi Research explicitly stated that the June employment report “strongly refutes the need for rate hikes” and that the case for raising rates has “evaporated,” maintaining a baseline forecast that the Fed will resume rate cuts in October [3][11]. Fed funds futures markets now price a ~52% probability of a September hike (down from ~64% pre-data), and traders have pushed the fully-priced-in rate-hike timeline from October to December [13][7][14][10]. Morgan Stanley lowered its Q2 GDP forecast to 2.0% SAAR from 2.5% [4].

1.1 FOMC Officials’ Remarks

  • [ESCALATED] Dovish-leaning — Kevin Warsh (Chair, Sintra speech): Warsh gave a nuanced speech at the ECB’s Sintra forum, striking a less hawkish tone than the June FOMC implied. Key points: (1) confirmed that “inflation expectations have begun to fall” and “inflation risks have decreased over the past four weeks” [3][1][15][16][8][2]; (2) maintained that the Fed “will no longer provide forward guidance” and will rely entirely on data [1][17][18]; (3) said AI’s demand-side effects may precede its supply-side impact, suggesting the Fed may lean hawkish before AI-driven capacity gains materialize [19]; (4) reiterated the Fed’s independence and commitment to 2% inflation [1]; (5) expressed a preference for continued balance-sheet reduction [1]; (6) repeatedly noted that official data are unreliable and that higher-frequency, real-time data are needed [6]. Marginal shift vs prior history: Warsh’s Sintra speech is the first time he has explicitly confirmed that inflation risks and expectations have declined — a more dovish characterization than his June 17 press conference. The market read this as reducing the urgency for rate hikes [3][2].

  • [NEW] Neutral/swing — Mary Daly (San Francisco Fed President): Daly gave a nuanced, scenario-based interview. Key points: (1) “We continue to have policy in a slightly restrictive position, so inflation should come down” [20][21][22][23]; (2) oil prices surging in spring pushed up inflation, but the US-Iran ceasefire helped [20]; (3) outlined multiple scenarios: “There is a scenario where the Fed has to fight inflation; there’s also a scenario where growth doesn’t continue” [24]; (4) advocated gradualism: “You don’t want to react quickly when the world is changing quickly” [25][26]; (5) “We should look to get better inflation data where we can” [27][28]; (6) open to novel data methods but not changing the dual mandate [20]. Marginal shift vs prior history: Daly’s remarks are the first appearance from her in the briefing history. Her tone is notably more balanced than Hammack’s hawkish salvo from earlier in the week — she explicitly acknowledges both the inflation-fighting and the growth-stall scenarios, without committing to a rate path.

  • [NEW] BOE — Catherine Mann: Mann supported holding rates at 3.75% but said she is prepared to take “active” rate-hiking measures if inflation pressures do not ease in H2 2026 [29].

1.2 Policy Signals & Institutional Communication

  • [NEW] Citi: case for rate hikes has “evaporated”: Citi Research stated that the June employment report “strongly refutes the need for rate hikes” and that the case for raising rates has “evaporated,” maintaining a baseline forecast that the Fed will resume rate cuts in October [3][11]. Citi predicts the fed funds rate will be cut to 3.25-3.5% in October and to 3.0-3.25% by year-end, with three more cuts in 2027 to a terminal rate of 2.75-3.0% [3]. Citi projects core PCE will gradually decline from ~3.4% to 3.0% by end-2026 and further to 2.1-2.2% by mid-2027 [3].

  • [NEW] Goldman Sachs: Fed on hold through 2026: Goldman reiterated its forecast that the Fed will keep the federal funds rate unchanged for the remainder of 2026 [2].

  • [NEW] Morgan Stanley: July hike probability “extremely low”: Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to hold rates unchanged in July and for the remainder of 2026, lowering Q2 GDP growth forecast to 2.0% SAAR from 2.5% [4][5].

  • [NEW] BofA: methodology revision to lower core PCE by ~20bp: The BEA announced a change in price-measurement methodology for portfolio management, legal services, and computer software, which BofA estimates will lower recent core PCE inflation readings by up to 20bp [30]. BofA noted this does not change the Fed’s view that inflation is the more difficult part of its dual mandate [30]. BofA lowered its Q2 GDP tracking estimate to 2.1% SAAR, driven by net export drag [30].

  • [NEW] Supreme Court upholds Fed independence: The Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that Fed Governor Lisa Cook can continue serving while litigation proceeds, which Goldman assessed as more supportive of Fed independence than the narrow vote implied, though some uncertainty remains [31][16].

  • [NEW] Market pricing collapses (post-payrolls): CME FedWatch as of 07/02: July hold 82.4%, 25bp hike 17.6%; September hold 46.8%, 25bp hike 45.6%, 50bp hike 7.6% [7]. Compared to pre-payrolls (from earlier this week): September hike probability fell from ~64% to ~52% [13]. Traders have fully priced in a hike by December, after previously pricing it by October [14].

  • [NEW] Deutsche Bank: market pricing ~40bp of Fed rate hikes: DB notes the Fed has been repriced more aggressively than peers, boosting the USD, but questions whether the pricing is sustainable [32].

  • [NEW] BofA Bull & Bear Indicator triggers sell signal: The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator rose to 9.5, triggering a sell signal (17th since 2002), indicating extreme optimism and consensus fragility [33]. Last week saw large rotation: $55bn into cash, $29.1bn into bonds, $13.9bn out of equities, $2bn out of crypto, $3bn out of gold [33].

  • [NEW] PBoC transitioning to ‘super central bank’ paradigm: China’s monetary policy framework is shifting toward a “super central bank” paradigm, integrating macroprudential management and financial regulatory coordination, with normalised treasury bond operations and continuous fine-tuning reverse repo operations since April 2026 [34].

2. Key Data & Market Read

  • [NEW] Nonfarm payrolls (June, released 07/02): 57k added, far below the consensus of ~110k and below Morgan Stanley’s 90k, BofA’s 110k, and Goldman Sachs’ 130k [3][31][30][4][5][6][12]. Prior two months were revised down by a total of 74k; the three-month average dropped to about 111k [3][4][5][11]. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% from 4.3%, but the labor force participation rate dropped sharply from 61.8% to 61.5% — if participation had not fallen, the unemployment rate would have risen to about 4.6% [4][5][11][6]. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month (in line), 3.5% year-over-year (in line) [16][6]. The survey response rate was 54.4%, the lowest since October 2024, indicating poor data quality [6]. Market read: The data was seen as unambiguously soft, collapsing front-end hike probabilities and driving a bond rally, dollar selloff, and gold strength [35][13][8][36][6][37][9]. However, many analysts warned against overinterpreting a single report given recent data volatility [17]. Narrative impact: The payrolls miss is the first major data test of the post-FOMC hawkish repricing and passes with a strongly dovish signal — it eliminates near-term hike urgency and supports the “wait and see” narrative.

  • [NEW] JOLTS (May): Job openings rose to 7.59 million, above the consensus ~7.3 million, indicating still-healthy labor demand [38]. Narrative impact: The divergence between strong JOLTS and weak payrolls complicates the narrative — job demand exists but hiring is not following, consistent with firms being uncertain about the outlook [11].

  • [NEW] ISM Manufacturing PMI (June): Remained at 53.3, near a four-year high, indicating manufacturing expansion [38][16]. The prices-paid index declined significantly [16]. Narrative impact: Manufacturing resilience challenges the growth-slowdown narrative, but falling input prices support the disinflation thesis.

  • [NEW] BofA GDP tracking lowered to 2.1%: BofA lowered its Q2 GDP tracking estimate to 2.1% SAAR from 2.5%-2.8%, driven by net export drag [30]. Citi estimates Q2 GDP at 1.9% [11]. Morgan Stanley lowered to 2.0% [4]. Narrative impact: Growth momentum is decelerating, opening a window for a dovish Fed pivot.

  • [NEW] BEA methodology revision lowers core PCE: The BEA announced a change in price-measurement methodology for portfolio management, legal services, and computer software, which BofA estimates will lower recent core PCE readings by up to 20bp [30]. Citi estimates a 20-30bp reduction [11]. Narrative impact: The methodology revision adds a structural disinflationary bias to the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, further supporting the dovish case — but BofA notes the Fed has likely already discounted these components [30].

  • [NEW] Atlanta Fed GDPNow cut to 1.2%: The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model cut Q2 real GDP growth to 1.2% annualized [15]. WEI index dropped sharply in June, indicating weaker-than-expected growth [15]. Market read: Growth signals are worsening more than official GDP tracking suggests. Narrative impact: A sharp growth deceleration, if confirmed, would make the case for rate hikes even harder to sustain.

  • [NEW] Conference Board labor differential at record gap: The Conference Board’s labor differential indicator — the share of respondents saying “jobs are hard to find” vs “plentiful” — implies consumers perceive unemployment at 4.9%, far above the official 4.2% — the largest gap outside the pandemic [39]. Market read: Consumer sentiment about the labor market is far weaker than official data suggests. Narrative impact: This “soft data” divergence implies the current official picture of a resilient labor market is fragile.

  • [NEW] WTI crude below $70/barrel: Oil prices continued to fall, with WTI below $70 [35][4]. The oil decline is a powerful disinflationary tailwind.

3. Financial-Conditions Signals

  • [NEW] Dollar & rates — yields fall, dollar weakens: The 2-year Treasury yield fell 6bp to 4.11% [9]. The 10-year yield also declined [13]. The dollar index fell 0.7% to ~100.71, its lowest in two weeks [8][40]. The dollar recorded its largest weekly decline in nearly three months [13]. The decline was attributed to the payrolls data reducing rate-hike expectations [35][17][8][36].

  • [NEW] Dollar & rates — Deutsche Bank: USD positioning most crowded in decades: IMM data shows the largest six-week change in USD long positions in decades, suggesting the dollar rally is crowded and vulnerable to a data-driven unwind [32]. Monex Europe expects DXY to fall to 98.1 over the next 12 months [40].

  • [NEW] Liquidity — cash inflows surge to $55bn: BofA data shows $55bn into cash last week (largest in recent weeks), $29.1bn into bonds, $13.9bn out of equities, $2bn out of crypto, $3bn out of gold [33]. US equities had their largest weekly outflow ($17.2bn) since March 2026 [33].

  • [NEW] Liquidity — TGA rise drawing reserves: Citi notes that the TGA balance has risen to ~$920bn as the Treasury increased bill auction sizes, draining reserves from the banking system [41]. Citi expects TGA to rise to ~$1 trillion by end-July, pushing reserves below $2.9 trillion [41]. Global central bank liquidity indicators have turned down this month [41].

  • [NEW] Liquidity — Morgan Stanley: liquidity tightening is a risk: Morgan Stanley notes that with the RRP and Treasury buyback facilities shrinking, liquidity is tightening while equity supply and real-economy demand are increasing [42]. The Fed’s balance-sheet expansion slowed from $400bn/month to $100bn/month in late April [15].

  • [NEW] Credit & banking — private credit funding collapse: Private credit funds saw new financing fall ~75% month-over-month in May to about $500mm — the smallest in at least 18 months — threatening lending capacity and potentially triggering defaults [19].

  • [NEW] Credit & banking — DB uncertainty indicator still elevated: Deutsche Bank’s uncertainty indicator remains high despite the US-Iran ceasefire, suggesting credit standards may tighten further [43].

  • [NEW] Gold — strengthens on hawkish unwind: Gold rose on the payrolls data, with the hawkish repricing unwind cited as support [36][6]. JPMorgan lowered Q3 2026 gold average forecast to $4,300/oz and Q4 to $4,500/oz [44]. Goldman maintains Q3 at $4,600/oz and Q4 at $4,836/oz [31].

4. Global Central-Bank Linkages

  • [NEW] BOE — Mann prepared to hike if inflation persists: BOE member Mann supported holding rates at 3.75% but said she is prepared to take “active” rate-hiking measures if inflation pressures do not ease in H2 2026 [29]. She noted the future question is whether there will be upside surprises in fiscal policy [45].

  • [NEW] PBoC — ‘super central bank’ framework: China’s monetary policy framework is shifting toward a ‘super central bank’ paradigm, with normalised treasury bond operations and continuous fine-tuning reverse repo operations since April 2026 to manage fund idling and non-bank leverage concerns [34].

5. Asset Implications

This section is inference — no [N]. Anchored to the facts above.

QuadrantCurrent probability tiltKey asset implicationAnchoring narrative
Growth↑ + Inflation↑Falling sharplyOil↓ gold↑, bonds rally on supply-side disinflation thesis; Warsh’s “inflation risks declined” + methodology revision remove the hawks’ core argument§1 (Warsh: inflation risks declined, no forward guidance); §2 (NFP 57k, GDP tracking lowered to 1.2-2.1%, BEA methodology lowers PCE); §3 (oil <$70, gold strengthens)
Growth↑ + Inflation↓Rising stronglyStocks (ex-AI cyclicals) + bonds rally; gold bounces; dollar weakens — the Goldilocks window is opening as the growth-stable/inflation-declining quadrant gains probability§1 (Citi: case for hikes “evaporated”; Goldman/MS: on hold; Warsh dovish nuance); §2 (NFP miss, GDP tracking lowered but ISM still at 53.3 — growth slowing not collapsing); §3 (2Y yield down 6bp, DXY down 0.7%, gold up)
Growth↓ + Inflation↑FallingStagflation tail fading as oil decline, methodology revision, and Warsh’s “inflation risks down” all push inflation lower§2 (oil decline, BEA methodology, ISM prices-paid down); §3 (gold moving on rate-hike expectations not stagflation)
Growth↓ + Inflation↓RisingLong-duration bonds attract flows if recession fears dominate; Citi’s October rate-cut call gains credibility; Morgan Stanley’s “no hike, two cuts” scenario§1 (Citi: cuts by October; Morgan Stanley: cuts in 2027); §2 (Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 1.2%, WEI index sharply lower, private credit funding collapse)

Stock-bond correlation call: The regime is transitioning decisively toward growth-driven (negative correlation) — bonds rallied on a soft payrolls report (2Y yield down 6bp), confirming that the market is pricing a lower rate path based on slowing growth and declining inflation risk [9]. The dollar weakened 0.7% [40] further supporting the negative-correlation structure: the USD rally that had been compressing breakevens and tightening financial conditions is reversing. The Citi call for October rate cuts [3] — and the BofA methodology revision that structurally lowers core PCE by ~20bp [30] — add fundamental support to the disinflation narrative.

However, the regime is not fully locked in. The market still prices a ~52% probability of a September hike [13][7], and the ISM manufacturing PMI remains at 53.3 [38], preventing a full recession narrative. The Deutsche Bank observation that USD positioning is the most crowded in decades [32] creates an asymmetric unwind risk, but the Monex Europe view that AI optimism may disappoint [40] maintains a growth-scare tail that would flip the correlation back to positive (stocks and bonds both sell off on growth fears, not just inflation fears).

Risk-budget implication:

  • Overweight the belly of the curve (5-year sector) — the combination of Warsh’s dovish nuance, the payrolls miss, the BEA methodology revision, and the oil price decline all argue for lower medium-term rates. Citi’s call for October rate cuts [3] adds a bull-steepening tail. The BofA flows data showing $29.1bn into bonds [33] confirms institutional demand.
  • Overweight a curve steepener — if the payrolls miss sustains its dovish repricing, the front-end will rally faster than the long end, steepening the curve. The Citi TGA analysis [41] supports medium-term liquidity tightening that caps the long-end rally, making a bull-steepener the right positioning.
  • Overweight gold tactically — gold has already bounced on the hawkish unwind [36][6]. The JPMorgan forecast of Q3 $4,300 and Q4 $4,500 [44] suggests further upside, while Goldman’s $4,600/$4,836 [31] is even more bullish. The weakening dollar adds support.
  • Underweight the USD — the payrolls-driven unwind has broken the dollar’s momentum. Monex Europe expects DXY to fall to 98.1 [40]. The crowded USD positioning ($29.4bn long speculative positions per prior briefings) adds to the unwind risk. A short USD position against a basket of low-beta currencies (JPY, CHF) hedges the risk that the dovish repricing continues.
  • Overweight cyclical equities (financials, industrials, consumer discretionary) per Morgan Stanley [42] — the “growth↑ + inflation↓” quadrant is gaining probability, favoring sectors that benefit from stable growth and lower rates. The tech sector’s YTD inflows are on track for a $152bn annual record [33], but Morgan Stanley flags semiconductors’ high positioning as unsustainable [42].

6. Contrarian & Tail Risks

  • Consensus fragility — the payrolls data quality issue: The June payrolls survey response rate was 54.4%, the lowest since October 2024, and the 90% confidence interval was [-6.5, 17.9] per the Chinese-source analysis [6]. This means the headline 57k miss could be revised significantly in either direction — a later upward revision would reverse the dovish repricing as sharply as it occurred. The same source notes that “continuous low initial survey response rates mean the data quality, volatility, and revision width problems persist” [6].

  • Consensus fragility — Warsh’s framework not yet absorbed: 国信证券 (a Chinese sell-side house) warns that the Warsh communication framework has not yet been fully absorbed by markets, and the five working groups have not provided substantive guidance [36]. If Warsh’s preference for higher-frequency data and skepticism of official statistics leads him to ignore the payrolls miss, the current dovish repricing could snap back.

  • Consensus fragility — the Evercore ISI counter-call: Evercore ISI explicitly stated they do not fully agree that the payrolls report “greatly lowers the likelihood of a rate hike this year” — arguing that the data represent a return to normal hiring, not a collapse, and that inflation data will remain the key determinant [46]. Santander’s Stephen Stanley similarly called the market reaction “inappropriate” [46]. If June CPI data re-accelerates, the dovish repricing would unwind quickly.

  • Consensus fragility — Jim Bianco’s “bond vigilante” warning: Bianco argues that if the Fed delays tightening, a bond market risk-off selloff would force market rates higher as investors demand compensation for inflation risk [47]. The current environment — where market pricing of a hike has fallen but inflation is still above target — creates the exact conditions for a “self-fulfilling” rate rise.

  • Consensus fragility — the BofA sell signal: The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator triggered a sell signal at 9.5 [33]. In 16 of 17 prior instances since 2002, the signal preceded a correction or reversal. Combined with the rotation out of equities ($13.9bn outflow) and into cash ($55bn) [33], this suggests the market is at an inflection point where the consensus “no recession” view may be overextended.

  • Second-order — Supreme Court Fed independence uncertainty: While the Court ruled 5-4 that Cook can stay, the case merits (the core legal challenge to Fed independence) will continue in lower courts [31][16]. The 5-4 split was narrow, and Goldman notes “some uncertainty remains” [31]. A lower-court ruling against Cook would re-open the tail risk of executive-branch interference with the Fed.

  • Second-order — AI capex cycle and demand-side inflation: Warsh noted that AI’s demand-side effects may precede supply-side capacity gains [19], which could sustain inflation pressure even as the labor market cools. Morgan Stanley’s projection that hyperscaler capex will exceed $1 trillion by 2027 [48] supports this risk. If AI investment continues to drive aggregate demand while the Fed is on hold, the “inflation re-acceleration” scenario in H2 2026 proposed by some Chinese analysis [38] becomes a real tail risk.

  • Second-order — private credit contagion: The private credit funding collapse — new financing down ~75% month-over-month to $500 million, the smallest in 18 months — threatens to trigger defaults among the businesses that depend on these loans, and could spill over to the broader economy and banking system [19]. This is a transmission channel from financial tightening to the real economy that is not captured in official bank lending data.

  • Source quality control: The payrolls data [3][4][5][11][16][17][6][12][49] is an official Bureau of Labor Statistics release; the response-rate detail from a Chinese source [6] is single-source but comes from the BLS itself. Warsh’s Sintra remarks [1][16][8][6][2] are sourced from a mix of secondary sources and social-media posts (Financial Juice) and should be treated with caution until a full transcript is released. The Citi rate-cut call [3][11] is primary institutional research. The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator [33] is primary. The Evercore ISI counter-call [46] is secondary. The Monex Europe dollar forecast [40] is primary. The Supreme Court ruling [31][16] is official. The private credit data [19] is secondary (第一财经). The Atlanta Fed GDPNow [15] is official. The Conference Board labor differential [39] is official.

Appendix: Additional Sources

  • [48] Morgan Stanley — Comprehensive macro strategy training material; Fed policy drivers, AI investment, term premium analysis
  • [50] Morgan Stanley — High-strike swaption demand analysis; payer skew driven by macro hedging
  • [51] 申万宏源金工 — (no direct Fed content)
  • [52] 金十-快讯 — Wall Street mid-year outlook summary
  • [53] 金十-快讯 — Warning that bad data is being misinterpreted as positive; growth quality cracks
  • [38] 中金公司 — NFP cooling supports Fed on hold, but AI investment may cause rate hikes in 2027
  • [54] Jurrien Timmer (Fidelity) — Central bank hawkishness lifts USD; rate-cut reversal expectations mount
  • [55] CEPR — Academic paper on Fed communication; systematic communication acts as second policy instrument
  • [56] 内资宏观研究 — China macro forecast; not Fed-related
  • [57] Nick Timiraos (WSJ) — Puzzle: if labor market is not source of inflation, what explains stickiness?

This report is a macro-mechanism analysis, not investment advice.

30-day review of this series 6/18 – 7/18

  • Hawkish FOMC debut and the disinflation counterwave: Chair Warsh’s June meeting—a 9-9 dot-plot tie for 2026 hikes, stripped forward guidance, and sharply higher inflation forecasts—triggered a violent repricing of rate expectations. Over the following weeks, soft June CPI and PPI readings collapsed July hike probability to near 11%, but a wall of Fed speakers (Logan, Jefferson, Schmid) warned against declaring victory, keeping the standoff alive.

  • Labor market softening tests the hawkish consensus: The June payrolls miss of +57k—well below consensus—undermined the “employment overheating” pillar and pushed the first fully priced hike from October to December. Yet the FOMC minutes and subsequent official commentary continued to emphasize inflation persistence, preventing a full dovish pivot.

  • Warsh’s communication overhaul raises volatility: The new chair abolished forward guidance, slashed the FOMC statement to 130 words, and launched five task forces to review communication, balance sheet, and data use. This structural shift made every data release and meeting a “live” event, amplifying market sensitivity to incoming prints.

  • Dollar and rate-path divergence widens: The dollar rallied to a one-year high on the hawkish repricing, then retreated as disinflation data emerged, while BofA’s three-hike forecast stood in stark contrast to market pricing of less than one hike. The gap between institutional forecasts and market pricing remained the widest in the cycle.

  • Global central bank divergence intensifies: The BOJ raised rates to 1.0% and signaled further hikes, the ECB resumed tightening, and the BOE held, while the Fed’s uncertain path created asymmetric cross-currents for EM FX and carry trades, with the yen carry trade reaching 2008-level risk.

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  28. Fed's Daly: We should look for better inflation and labor data, but should not move the goalposts Twitter·财经快讯 Score 64
  29. 英国央行货币政策委员曼恩：如果物价压力持续，准备好加息 格隆汇快讯 Score 61
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  32. 选择不追逐：美元走势观察 外资研报 Score 63
  33. The Flow Show：红白蓝与繁荣——美银全球资金流向与资产配置策略 外资研报 Score 62
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  38. 中金：非农降温支持联储不加息、不降息 中金点睛 Score 61
  39. 现在是重新进入美债曲线陡峭化交易的时候 外资研报 Score 61
  40. 机构：若美联储避免加息，美元或进一步走软 格隆汇快讯 Score 62
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  45. BoE's Mann: Going forward, the question is whether there will be upside surprises in fiscal policy. Twitter·财经快讯 Score 60
  46. 尽管六月就业数据疲软，美联储仍将关注通胀 格隆汇快讯 Score 64
  47. 如果美联储不加息，市场会替它加 华尔街见闻 Score 63
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  49. 短短一个月内，美国就业数据从强劲转向明显降温，市场对美联储政策路径迅速重新定价。一图看懂美国6月非农数据亮点！ 金十-快讯 Score 63
  50. 投资者正为防范6%利率风险付费 外资研报 Score 60
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  53. 坏数据又被市场当成了利好，可这次里面藏着的不是糖，是增长质量的裂缝。华尔街在唱多下半年，但这次剧本可能不一样。点击查看... 金十-快讯 Score 61
  54. That central bank hawkishness is also lifting the US dollar, as expectations mount that the Fed will have to undo the last few rate cuts. This looks l... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 67
  55. DP21691 Louder than Rates: The Systematic Nature of Central Bank Communication CEPR / VoxEU Score 65
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