· Friday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
January goes from a one-in-ten tail to largely priced as the front end posts its worst week since April
The December hike is now fully priced and the marginal repricing has migrated to the *cumulative* path, with a January move going from roughly a 10% probability a week ago to largely priced and a third hike fully priced by mid-2027, while the front end delivers its biggest weekly rise since April last year on a real-rate, not breakeven, move .
Brent rebounds to $96.43 as Iran hits Gulf US targets and Trump says a deal is unnecessary
Brent rebounded to $96.43 with WTI at $88.89 as traders weighed continued disruption to Middle Eastern shipments against US–Iran prospects , after Iran struck US military targets in the Gulf for the first time since early September — claiming a hit on a Bahrain early-warning radar — and Trump said on Truth Social that a deal with Iran was not necessary to end the war, signalling he would stick with the blockade and sanctions .