· Thursday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
December fully priced as the debate shifts to three consecutive hikes
December is now priced as done on the hawkish trackers and the residual repricing has moved to the cumulative path — three consecutive moves at 100%/75%/66% — even though the 50bp tail is now attributable to essentially one official and the Chair's own doctrine ("trends matter most") contradicts the single-data-point reaction function the market just priced .
Brent gives back the $92 rebound to settle at $91.79 as Hormuz tanker flows fall to 8 a day and Houthi missiles reach Riyadh
Front-month Brent gave back Wednesday's rebound and settled at $91.79 with WTI at $85.69 as investors weighed prospects for renewed US–Iran talks against Tehran's conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz , even as Morgan Stanley's tracker showed Middle East crude exports at only 76% of the pre-war level — 13.6 mn b/d for the week to 11/8 — and Hormuz outbound tankers at an 8/day seven-day average versus a pre-war 35/day , while the Saudi-led coalition intercepted Houthi missiles aimed at Riyadh .