· Wednesday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Core CPI meets Waller's 50bp trigger and December becomes a fully priced hike
October core inflation landed exactly at the pace Governor Waller had named hours earlier as his trigger for a half-point move, so December is now priced as a certainty with a fattening 50bp tail and the debate has shifted to pace — but the selloff was real-rate-led rather than breakeven-led, which is the configuration that hurts a levered balanced book most .
Brent rebounds above $92 as verified tanker fires undercut the peace trade
The peace trade cracked — Brent rebounded above $92 after falling below $90 for the first time since late August, as Reuters-verified video showed the Singapore-flagged Navig8 Messi on fire off Oman and data showed 37 ships attacked in October, the highest monthly total of the war — even as Trump held off new strikes at Gulf allies' request and an Iranian security official said no talks were taking place at all .