· Saturday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Soft September payrolls cut October hike odds to about a fifth, but the long end still will not confirm
September payrolls landed far below expectations with the prior two months revised down and wage growth at cycle lows, dragging market-implied October hike odds from roughly 70% to about 20% — yet the 10-year fell only about 6bp and partially reversed intraday, the sharpest evidence yet that long-end duration is no longer trading the Fed's next move .
Kpler puts Gulf oil flows at 92% of prewar as Barclays lifts its 2026 Brent call to $100 and the G7 releases 100 million barrels
Middle East oil flows have consolidated near prewar levels — Kpler puts the final week of September at 92% of the prewar baseline , with 40% of the region's September exports bypassing the strait against 17% before the war — while Barclays raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $100 from a previously implied $94 average and the G7 announced a 100-million-barrel release of crude and diesel reserves , as Iran's inflation nears 90% and the US sends another aircraft carrier with 10,000 sailors .