· Thursday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
August core PCE lands soft and cuts October hike odds below 40% — yet the 10-year pushes past its 2007 peak to a 24-year high
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge came in below expectations with a larger-than-expected methodology-driven downward revision, cutting October hike odds to roughly 36–38% from near 70% at the start of the week, yet the 10-year Treasury still blew past its 2007 peak to its highest since 2002 and the 30-year cleared 5.6% — the clearest evidence yet that the long end is no longer trading the Fed's next move .
Gulf crude flows reach prewar levels and Brent slips below $97 as Washington weighs renewed Houthi strikes
Crude exports out of the Gulf have recovered to prewar levels — Kpler puts Hormuz crude at a 13.5 mn b/d seven-day average matching the prewar baseline and regional shipments at 19.5 mn bpd above the prewar ~17 mn bpd, while Goldman puts Gulf exports including dark flows at 23.3 mn b/d — and oil fell on it, with Brent December futures down 1.09% to $96.96 and WTI down 1.32% to $89.24, even as refined-product flows stay near 58% of pre-conflict levels, UKMTO logged three more attacks in the Southern Omani lane, and Washington reopened the question of striking the Houthis .