· Wednesday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Williams's "no need for urgency" cuts October hike odds to a coin flip; the 30-year tops 5.6% before easing
New York Fed President John Williams pushed back on odds-on October tightening — "there is no need for urgency, and we have time to gather more information" — and October hike pricing collapsed from above 70% to a near coin flip even as the 30-year touched its highest since 2002 and soft consumer-confidence and job-openings data went unacknowledged by the long end .
Three vessels struck inside Hormuz as Gulf crude flows approach prewar levels and Brent holds near $100
Crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are rebounding toward prewar levels — Kpler's week to 9/27 averaged nearly 12.5 mn b/d, JPMorgan puts crude at 98% of prewar and Goldman at 23.3 mn b/d in line with the 2025 average — but refined products remain at roughly half of normal, UKMTO reported three vessels including an LNG carrier struck by unidentified projectiles inside the strait on 9/30, and Brent hovered at the $100 handle as US–Iran diplomacy degenerated into an information battle of mutual public denials .