· Sunday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Super central bank week; hike pricing at 87–90% with the dot plot as the swing factor
With the FOMC, BOJ and BOE all meeting in the coming week, market-implied odds of a 25bp September hike have consolidated in an 87–90% band , shifting the market's attention from the decision itself to the dot plot and Chair Warsh's press conference — while a core CPI beat concentrated in a handful of noisy items, record-low inflation breadth, and oil above $100 keep the inflation-driven positive stock-bond correlation regime intact.
Iranian ship struck off Qeshm as Houthis hit southern Saudi Arabia and Riyadh's East-West pipeline stays shut
Escalation continues across both chokepoints — an Iranian commercial ship was struck early Sunday near the Strait of Hormuz with one person killed and three wounded , the Houthis fired drones and missiles at southern Saudi Arabia , and Brent remains above $100 with US diesel at a record above $6 a gallon — while Monday's Oman meeting on the strait is being discounted by Tehran itself, which says any agreement "does not necessarily" guarantee safe navigation .