· Monday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Economists flip to a hike into the FOMC; the dot plot and the "after" carry the risk
The Reuters poll reversed to a decisive hike consensus after Friday's firm inflation data, aligning forecasters with futures pricing near 86–90% for a 25bp September move, so the tradeable uncertainty has shifted to the dot plot and whether Warsh frames the move as a one-off — a two-sided event that leaves the inflation-driven positive stock-bond correlation regime in place .
Saudi pipeline stays shut and Hormuz talks are postponed as the Houthis take the Hanish islands and Brent tops $107
Escalation on both the physical and the diplomatic layers — Oman postponed Monday's Hormuz meeting "in the interests of consensus" after what Iran said was a Saudi demand, Saudi Arabia's 7 million b/d East-West pipeline remained shut with Yanbu holding only 5–7 days of export stock, and the Houthis seized the Greater and Lesser Hanish islands in the southern Red Sea, lifting Brent above $107 and US diesel to a record $6.23 a gallon .